Metrics On Tua From Barry Jackson | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Metrics On Tua From Barry Jackson

VAFinsfan72 said:
What I got from all those stats is that Tua is very good when he has a clean pocket.

I think why he stuggles in the 4th quarter in one possession games is that DC's know he struggles under pressure so they blitz more and force the issue knowing he is short, and he can't really extend plays.

I noticed when I was watching the playoff games last weekend that there were times when Allen, Mahomes and Love were under pressure but they were able to scramble, escape the pocket and extend plays. I kept thinking to myself if that was Tua he would have either been sacked or he would have thrown one of those passes he tends to throw under pressure that sail and end up being picked off.

I think McDaniel can do a better job of giving him easy outet options to backs and TE's. I would think this would be particularly effective with how much attention Hill and Waddle get.
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The pressure in key moments is an issue for every QB. Brady didn’t handle it well for example. But it was hard to get to him. Guys like Marino and P Manning handled it was well as one could without going all Tarkington. Protection has to hold up to give you a chance. He’s insanely accurate. I wish he’d lose some weight and go back to being a little niftier back there. He had good presence in the pocket. The line needs to be better though
 
bdizzle00 said:
I don’t understand anything anyone has said in this thread.

Ive taken the liberty to create my own analytics.

Tua throw ball, Hill catch good.
Tua throw ball, other team catch bad.
Dolphins score touchdown good.
Dolphins no score touchdown bad.
Dolphins win game good.
Dolphins no win game bad.
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1706401952146.gif
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
Tua's decline in the clutch this year is troubling. I'm not sure what to attribute that to?

I think it's fair to say that Miami was dealing with more injuries on the offensive line than most teams. How many games were at least two starting offensive linemen missing due to injuries?

Yet, there were times when Tua threw low percentage passes (double covered deep etc.) when receivers were open for smaller gains.

So, it's not all on the offensive line.
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Did you factor in Mr Clutch Williams SNAP against KC while Waddle ran home free on 4th down?
 
Another bash Tua thread ..go figure hopefully he proves the naysayers wrong
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
Agree. I think Tua's mindset this year was go for the big play, which is great when it's there.

Someone else on this site said the best approach would be to combine what Tua did well with Chan Gailey to the more aggressive quarterback under McDaniel.

We've seen Tua pick teams apart with smaller gains, so we know he's capable. He definitely has to play smarter.
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Heh, I think that was me. Or at least I was one of them. I sorta became a Chan supporter, even though I never thought he was great, or even particularly good, just that he was experienced, basically competent, and underrated on this site. When they switched to Tua midseason, he did his best to add good, safe plays, for the promising rookie coming off a horrific injury, with no preseason and short TC, with lots of RPO's which Tua was and is amazing at, like'em or hate'em. McDaniel kept a part of Gailey's playbook and used it in 2022 to good results, even saying so in an interview, I think. Much less so this year, which I think is unfortunate. Whether it's explicitly Chan's or just a selection of older, less "innovative", "bog standard" (Awsi Dooger term), easier to execute/ just beat the guy in front of you/ don't try to trick'em plays -- McD needs a plan B section of the scheme. Plan A can stay his "patented stuff". Tua can handle both - just not the Kaepernick/ Lamar / RG3, Greg Roman schemes. IMHO.
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
Agree. I think Tua's mindset this year was go for the big play, which is great when it's there.

Someone else on this site said the best approach would be to combine what Tua did well with Chan Gailey to the more aggressive quarterback under McDaniel.

We've seen Tua pick teams apart with smaller gains, so we know he's capable. He definitely has to play smarter.
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I agree, we have seen Tua be effiecient in previous years with shorter passes before he had Tyreek Hill to throw to although he didnt make many explosive throws like he has the past couple of years since the addition of Tyreek.

McDaniel needs to tweak his offense to give Tua more of those high percentage throws and utilize the TE and RB's in the passing game. Its frustrating to watch other games and see all of the playmaking TE's around the league but we hardly ever utilize the position in the passing game. I would think with all of the attention Hill and Waddle get it would make it that much easier to exploit defenses with the TE and RB in the passing game.
 
Mello Yello said:
We need context to interpret this statistic. It might be that 83.6 is good or bad. We don't know. When we create these unique conditions, we must do it for everyone to supply context. We need to know where Tua ranks against other QBs in such moments.



The Dolphins offense and its downward trend in EPA (by quarter) has already been put out there. It's not clear exactly how this is Tua's fault exactly and what he should be doing that he isn't. It's like saying, "be more successful." We all want it but the challenge for Miami is figuring out what's causing it.



This isn't a good stat for Tua but it's also a reflection of the offense which has been broken down by numerous people across the internet. The offense rarely seemed to provide Tua with outlets/hots. Why those weren't there is a huge question. Is the offense just poorly designed? Are the wrong plays being run because Tua's pressed for time at the LOS and can't audible? Is Tua failing to read the defense appropriately?

It's fair to be disappointed but it's not clear who to be frustrated with and whether it's reasonable to expect improvement next season.



I think this sort of thing could've been traced all the way back to Alabama. We always projected him as a successful passer if the conditions were favorable. This is part of my whole "he is who we thought he was" thing.



Volumetric stats are meaningless. The only thing that matters with interceptions is the rate at which you get them (Int%).

Here's Tua by year:
View attachment 159457

Tua ranked #10 and #20 in his two years under Flores. He's now ranked #13 and #26 in his two seasons under McDaniel.

So typically a little below average in this category. Does that reflect his age and lack of experience? Unfortunately, I would say no. Herbert has always ranked above Tua and we see plenty of instances of other young QBs like Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence being near the top of the rankings at times. Tua really hasn't ever had a "good" year in this department.

So it begs a bigger question--is Tua just too aggressive? Yeah, probably. He takes a lot of shots downfield and often throws dangerous passes that are lucky not be picked off. I think this is part of Tua's nature and probably something he's always going to struggle with. I don't think you get the big plays to Hill and Waddle without a QB who's always looking to take those chances throwing into the secondary. In some sense he's the opposite of what we had with Tannehill, who was a QB who'd pat the ball, take sacks and at his best check it down.

It's also reasonable to point out that Drew Brees really didn't get "good" at avoiding interceptions (Int% < 2.0) until the end of his career. In his first decade, Brees had a few seasons ranking in the Top-10 in Int% but he also had many seasons in-between where he was ranked as low as 27th. He was very up and down based on the year and on average had just about the same Int%'s as Tua does now:

View attachment 159466
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one little nit about drew brees. in the postseason, as good as he was in the regular season, and with a great coach, he could never win outside of the dome...i think the year he won the SB, all home playoff games, then a super bowl in a dome. i think he also had a real hard time on the road and in cold weather, especially in the playoffs, and the saints would lose those games all the time. pretty much a lock to bet against brees outside in the cold
 
Mello Yello said:
Exactly, Tua never would have been the compelling prospect he was had it not been for that distinct aggression--the willingness to operate college football's most prolific passing attack. That's the sports car you bought, right? The gas mileage just isn't going to be it's best feature. You live with that.

I'd be more worried if the Int% was consistently above 3% for instance where you find Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, etc. I emphasize "consistently" because there are examples of good QBs having bad years. Prescott led the lead with a 3.8% rate in '22 for instance. Just a random fluke.

But Tua's been consistently average in this area of his game. It's just not a strength of his. Okay, he's coming out of year #4. I'm not worried about it. Is he great? No. Is it important stat? Yeah, kind of. It does certainly identify some of the league's worst QBs (see those I listed). But it's hard to point to Tua's 2.3 career average and make a case for anything negative.
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This offense is probably one of the most variance heavy I've ever seen tbh... Consistently throwing to guys who haven't gotten into their cut yet, the motions, the play actions... Everything introduces variance into the equation. But the overall results show a distinct profit.

What that tells you is this offense needs volume... The bend but don't break defense Fangio brought here was not a good fit, at all. I'm not here to debate that the defense was the reason for everything that happened this year, but it certainly kept the offense from getting the volume it needs to show profit in many games. Fins can put up 30 burgers in 5 plays, but they need opportunities and having the defense make a stop after a 5 minute 15 plays drive by the opponent isn't all that successful in the grand scheme of things. It's actually a win for them.

I can only laugh at the stat about the trailing under 5 to go in OP, based on 25 ****ing pass attempts spread over 6 games... Like that **** has any kind of meaning whatsoever.
 
VAFinsfan72 said:
I agree, we have seen Tua be effiecient in previous years with shorter passes before he had Tyreek Hill to throw to although he didnt make many explosive throws like he has the past couple of years since the addition of Tyreek.

McDaniel needs to tweak his offense to give Tua more of those high percentage throws and utilize the TE and RB's in the passing game. Its frustrating to watch other games and see all of the playmaking TE's around the league but we hardly ever utilize the position in the passing game. I would think with all of the attention Hill and Waddle get it would make it that much easier to exploit defenses with the TE and RB in the passing game.
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Nice post brother. I whole heartily agree as it seems at times we get stuck on the same WR's. That is why I ask the family when they say draft a TE early, are we going to use him and get a return on using a high draft pick? :ffic:
 
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