We need context to interpret this statistic. It might be that 83.6 is good or bad. We don't know. When we create these unique conditions, we must do it for everyone to supply context. We need to know where Tua ranks against other QBs in such moments.
The Dolphins offense and its downward trend in EPA (by quarter) has already been put out there. It's not clear exactly how this is Tua's fault exactly and what he should be doing that he isn't. It's like saying, "be more successful." We all want it but the challenge for Miami is figuring out what's causing it.
This isn't a good stat for Tua but it's also a reflection of the offense which has been broken down by numerous people across the internet. The offense rarely seemed to provide Tua with outlets/hots. Why those weren't there is a huge question. Is the offense just poorly designed? Are the wrong plays being run because Tua's pressed for time at the LOS and can't audible? Is Tua failing to read the defense appropriately?
It's fair to be disappointed but it's not clear who to be frustrated with and whether it's reasonable to expect improvement next season.
I think this sort of thing could've been traced all the way back to Alabama. We always projected him as a successful passer if the conditions were favorable. This is part of my whole
"he is who we thought he was" thing.
Volumetric stats are meaningless. The only thing that matters with interceptions is the rate at which you get them (Int%).
Here's Tua by year:
View attachment 159457
Tua ranked
#10 and
#20 in his two years under Flores. He's now ranked
#13 and
#26 in his two seasons under McDaniel.
So typically a little below average in this category. Does that reflect his age and lack of experience? Unfortunately, I would say no. Herbert has always ranked above Tua and we see plenty of instances of other young QBs like Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence being near the top of the rankings at times. Tua really hasn't ever had a "good" year in this department.
So it begs a bigger question--is Tua just too aggressive? Yeah, probably. He takes a lot of shots downfield and often throws dangerous passes that are lucky not be picked off. I think this is part of Tua's nature and probably something he's always going to struggle with. I don't think you get the big plays to Hill and Waddle without a QB who's always looking to take those chances throwing into the secondary. In some sense he's the opposite of what we had with Tannehill, who was a QB who'd pat the ball, take sacks and at his best check it down.
It's also reasonable to point out that Drew Brees really didn't get "good" at avoiding interceptions (Int% < 2.0) until the end of his career. In his first decade, Brees had a few seasons ranking in the Top-10 in Int% but he also had many seasons in-between where he was ranked as low as
27th. He was
very up and down based on the year and on average had just about the same Int%'s as Tua does now:
View attachment 159466
... or comment on the thread title.
