Numbers game: updated playoff probabilities

[nyjunc]

Realistically the 3 teams that have a legitimate chance at the 6 seed are Bal, SD and Miami. Miami could win the division if they win out but that would require the Bills to win in NE week 17 and that is highly unlikely.

you can't be realistic in the same sentence w/ Miami winning div title. I think we have very little chance at the WC but there is a much greater chance we win out and Bal loses 2 of 3 than Miami winning out and NE losing out.

---------- Post added at 11:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 AM ----------

none of that matters of Baltimore doesnt lose a game.

Bal will lose at least one. If you guys win out you will make it.

 

[Fins1971]

Jets have a 70% chance of making it if they win out. I wouldn't count them out yet.

 

[Daytona Fin]

Jets have a 70% chance of making it if they win out. I wouldn't count them out yet.

What's their % if the lose to the panthers?

 

[nyjunc]

Jets have a 70% chance of making it if they win out. I wouldn't count them out yet.

we'll find out pretty quick, upset Carolina and the confidence will be sky high and we'll have a chance.

---------- Post added at 11:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:54 AM ----------

What's their % if the lose to the panthers?

very slim but we wouldn't be eliminated w/ a loss.

 

[Fins1971]

What's their % if the lose to the panthers?

drops to 4% if they lose to Carolina and they are eliminated if Baltimore beat Detroit.

---------- Post added at 11:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:55 AM ----------

very slim but we wouldn't be eliminated w/ a loss.

Jet loss to Panthers and Ravens win over Lions eliminates you.

 

[nyjunc]

drops to 4% if they lose to Carolina and they are eliminated if Baltimore beat Detroit.

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Jet loss to Panthers and Ravens win over Lions eliminates you.

you are right, I am assuming Bal wil lose to Det

 

[MD]

you can't be realistic in the same sentence w/ Miami winning div title. I think we have very little chance at the WC but there is a much greater chance we win out and Bal loses 2 of 3 than Miami winning out and NE losing out.

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Bal will lose at least one. If you guys win out you will make it.

It's not the same sentence. Look closer.

 

[MarinoEqualsGod]

I was noticing that on a simulator last night. We can beat Patriots and Bills but if we lose to Jets in final game we would lose tiebreaker to Jets if they win out.

What I find interesting is that I did a simulation where I only altered Miami's and New England's games to go in our favor and we ended up with the number 2 seed and a first round bye. I didn't even think that was still a possibility. Of course, that would hinge on Buffalo beating New England in the final week of the season, and we all know that's not going to happen.

 

[FinaticalFinfan]

none of that matters of Baltimore doesnt lose a game.

This is unfortunately the truth....we had our shot at em and we came up short. Now the Fins have to handle their business and hope somebody knocks em off. I thought it was going to happen yesterday, what a crazy game that was (Vikes/Ravens).

 

[nyjunc]

What I find interesting is that I did a simulation where I only altered Miami's and New England's games to go in our favor and we ended up with the number 2 seed and a first round bye. I didn't even think that was still a possibility. Of course, that would hinge on Buffalo beating New England in the final week of the season, and we all know that's not going to happen.

that is b/c it wasn't giving any wins to Cincy or Indy. if Indy wins 2 Miami couldn't possibly be a 2 seed, if Cincy wins 1 the same thing.

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It's not the same sentence. Look closer.

haha, close enough

 

[Vaark]

Jets have a 70% chance of making it if they win out. I wouldn't count them out yet.

It's their homeristic nature to be hopeful, if not optimistic, but looking at this from the outside, after the prior 3 game performance of Genocide and the Jest:

what, on the basis of :
beating a 4-8 team with a -61 pt differential going in who was traveling from the warm west coast to the frigid jersey tundra for a 1PM Sunday game, starting a scrub UFA replacement QB, missing one of their 2 dynamic WRs (+15 ypc) out with a shoulder injury and sporting a 1-6 road record of futility

yet having their offense (not special teams) outscore the visitors by all of 3 pts

why, aside from of course being thankful for any win as such, should the jest or their realistic fans draw anything beyond that as positive that their abysmal performance over the prior 3 games has changed?

 

[Fins1971]

It's their homeristic nature to be hopeful, if not optimistic, but looking at this from the outside, after the prior 3 game performance of Genocide and the Jest:

what, on the basis of :
beating a 4-8 team with a -61 pt differential going in who was traveling from the warm west coast to the frigid jersey tundra for a 1PM Sunday game, starting a scrub UFA replacement QB, missing one of their 2 dynamic WRs (+15 ypc) out with a shoulder injury and sporting a 1-6 road record of futility

yet having their offense (not special teams) outscore the visitors by all of 3 pts

why, aside from of course being thankful for any win as such, should the jest or their realistic fans draw anything beyond that as positive that their abysmal performance over the prior 3 games has changed?

certainly wouldn't bet on it happening. Just saying if they somehow upset Carolina this week they would have 2 game winning streak and a chance.

another interesting thing.

Miami has a chance to eliminate up to 7 teams this week if they beat the Patriots. Bills, Brown Jags and Raiders all eliminated with Miami win.
Titans, Steelers and Chargers all eliminated with Miami win and if they lose their game. all are underdogs this week.

That would leave Miami, Baltimore and Jets for final spot. And Jets may eliminate themselves against Carolina.

 

[MD]

It's their homeristic nature to be hopeful, if not optimistic, but looking at this from the outside, after the prior 3 game performance of Genocide and the Jest:

what, on the basis of :
beating a 4-8 team with a -61 pt differential going in who was traveling from the warm west coast to the frigid jersey tundra for a 1PM Sunday game, starting a scrub UFA replacement QB, missing one of their 2 dynamic WRs (+15 ypc) out with a shoulder injury and sporting a 1-6 road record of futility

yet having their offense (not special teams) outscore the visitors by all of 3 pts

why, aside from of course being thankful for any win as such, should the jest or their realistic fans draw anything beyond that as positive that their abysmal performance over the prior 3 games has changed?

The Jets point differential sums up their season and is a clear indicator of the probability of making the playoffs.

-111

 

[nyjunc]

The Jets point differential sums up their season and is a clear indicator of the probability of making the playoffs.

-111

yet a game behind the 6 seeded Ravens and juggernaut Phins.

 

[MarinoEqualsGod]

T

that is b/c it wasn't giving any wins to Cincy or Indy. if Indy wins 2 Miami couldn't possibly be a 2 seed, if Cincy wins 1 the same thing.

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haha, close enough

Wrong. Cincy needs to win 2 more, while Indy needs to win all 3 of their remaining games if we win out because we hold the tiebreaker over both. The whole thing is moot though, because NE isn't losing to BUF