http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print....oel_sherman.htm
TRICKS OF THE TRADE
By JOEL SHERMAN
November 5, 2006 -- There is a general feeling about this free-agent market: It is underwhelming and overpriced. You may like elements such as Barry Zito or Alfonso Soriano, but basic supply-and-demand says they are going to run a fortune and help raise the costs on the next level of player, such as Ted Lilly and Gary Matthews Jr.
"There is a lot of money in the game right now, which means a lot of bidding on the few crumbs in free agency," one NL executive said, "so that means just add 10 to 20 percent on whatever you thought you were going to pay for any free agent."
That is why the trade market is so attractive right now. Well, that and the potential availability of so many high-profile players, particularly among hitters such as Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Beltre, Miguel Tejada, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Vernon Wells and Andruw Jones. The only slugger certain to change teams, though, is Gary Sheffield. As one AL GM said, "trades are getting tougher and tougher to make these days."
That is because, in particular, teams value and horde inexpensive high-end players, particularly pitchers, like never before. To break the logjam, we will suggest four trades we think should get made. These ideas were run by more than 10 executives, who offered counsel and input, with the main goal being: Would you make the deal regardless of which side you were on (remember if both sides don't feel pain, it probably isn't a fair trade)? The concept here mainly is to give a sampling of just the kind of player potentially available in what could be a very tantalizing offseason:
Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge and Henry Owens to the Padres; Jake Peavy to the Mets
This would be extremely risky for both teams. With steroid-busted Guillermo Mota and Chad Bradford free agents and Duaner Sanchez rehabbing from shoulder surgery, the Mets would be gambling to deal Heilman from the 'pen. But the Mets do believe Sanchez will be ready and want to retain Bradford (but watch for the Yanks and Red Sox as Bradford's price rises dramatically because he did well against lefties last year and the relief market is so thin). They also think a starter such as Brian Bannister can get into the 'pen mix.
Omar Minaya is a Milledge fan, but that is not universal in the Mets organization and the team has two high-level outfield prospects - Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez - coming. Owens had an eye-popping Double-A year (74 Ks in 40 IP, .137 BAA), but he will be 28 in April and is still learning to pitch after a conversion from catcher.
The big question, though, is about Peavy. He had an iffy season (11-14, 4.09 ERA) in a pitcher's park and has some history of shoulder problems. But there is plenty to like. He is the kind of power arm Minaya has been pursuing (second most strikeouts over the past two years behind only Johan Santana). Despite the arm frets, he has made 62 starts the last two seasons. He has won in double digits four consecutive years, yet at 25, is still a year younger than Chien-Ming Wang. And with three years at $18.75 million left on his pact, he is reasonably priced. It seems a risk worth taking for the Mets because front-of-the-rotation starters are just that hard to find. They have inquired about the White Sox's Freddy Garcia, but the request of Milledge and Phil Humber or Mike Pelfrey is too much for a pitcher a year from free agency. And they are conflicted whether to spend substantially on Zito.
To do this deal, the Padres would have to be among the many teams that think the Mets undervalue Heilman and that he is a 15-win starter waiting to happen. In that case, they get a cheaper alternative to Peavy, add high-end potential in Milledge and Owens to a dubious farm system, and also gain more financial flexibility to find a bat. However, when right, Peavy is an ace, in a sport bereft of that animal. If the Padres move him, it may say a lot about what they think about him holding up with such a violent delivery.
Jeremy Bonderman to the Rangers; Mark Teixeira to the Tigers
The Tigers have oodles of what every club craves: young, high-end, reasonably priced starting pitching, so they are going to be popular this offseason. The untouchables are Andrew Miller (their first-round pick in June, whom Detroit thinks could be in the rotation next year), Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander. In Wil Ledezma, Mike Maroth, Zach Miner, Humberto Sanchez and Jordan Tata, the Tigers have inventory to use individually or in combination to get a good piece. But, in the World Series, Detroit's main weakness was exposed. The Tigers are too right-handed and too impatient. To get a keen-eyed, lefty impact bat, they would have to move either Nate Robertson or more likely Bonderman.
The switch-hitting Teixeira would be ideal. The Tigers are unlikely to retain first baseman Sean Casey. Teixeira has increased his walk total every season from 44 as a rookie (2003) to 89 last year. His power could be hurt by spacious Comerica Park, but he is a good hitter regardless. And, at four years, he has the same service time as Bonderman. That is crucial.
Teixeira is a Scott Boras client, which means he is almost certain to test free agency after the 2008 campaign and, at just 28 then, be shopped as a $100 million-plus player. Texas, as it learned with Boras client Alex Rodriguez, must allocate its big money on pitching, not position players. But Detroit owner Mike Ilitch has willingly done mega-deals with Boras on position players (Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez). The Rangers can draw hitters to their power-friendly park; don't be surprised if owner Tom Hicks imports Barry Bonds for his bat and to juice attendance as a DH. It is harder to get a young, front-of-the-rotation, power-armed groundball machine such as Bonderman, who already has three double-digit win seasons despite being just a year older than Verlander, the likely AL Rookie of the Year.
Vernon Wells to the Angels; Erick Aybar and Ervin Santana to the Blue Jays
The Orioles spurned this Angels offer for Miguel Tejada. The attractiveness of Tejada was he had three years left on his contract. Wells has just one and, perhaps, an affinity to return to his native Arlington to play with the Rangers upon free agency. But the Angels have deep pockets to remove such thoughts, especially with their need in center. Plus, Wells is three years younger than Tejada, who unlike Wells also comes with questions about his temperament.
Toronto knows it will be extraordinarily difficult to keep Wells long term. In Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and Santana, the Jays would come armed with a better rotation 1-2-3 than the Yanks or Red Sox. The switch-hitting Aybar (think Jose Reyes Lite) ends all the failed shortstop experiments. And the removal of Wells gives the Jays some additional dollars to go into the market to find some offensive upgrades to make his departure easier.
Miguel Montero and Chris Young to the Marlins; Dontrelle Willis to the Diamondbacks
The Mets want Willis, but it would take something close to overwhelming to pry him from Florida, and overwhelming has to start with a high-end catching prospect and center field prospect who are major league ready. That describes Montero and Young. The Marlins would have to believe Montero's catching skills continue to evolve to match his already superb hitting. This would be difficult for the D'backs because they love Young (they would prefer to move Justin Upton) and there have been indications they would deal starting catcher Johnny Estrada this offseason to make room for Montero. The Dodgers, with their elite farm system, could be players, as well, but their GM, Ned Colletti, is familiar with free agent Jason Schmidt from San Francisco, and L.A. also will be players for Zito.
