Only 2 QB's taken outside of the 1st round since 03 have been successful

[gregorygrant83]

You have to take this kind of historical info with a grain of salt. While it's true that only a small # of Qb's drafted outside of the first round have become good starters, that doesn't mean Chad Henne would have been a better quarterback if he were taken late in the first round or Aaron Rogers would have failed had he slipped to the second round.

It's like people saying RGIII won't be successful because Big 12 QB's don't have a history of success. By that logic if Andrew Luck had elected to go to Texas and RGIII choose UCLA it would make RGIII the better prospect regardless of their skill set.

If you think Tannehill is a first round talent you take him. But you don't want to take him in the top 10 if you really think he's a second or third round talent, but worry second round qb's fail or you're afraid someone else might overvalue him.

 

[clownfish]

Who in any other year likely wouldn't be a first round pick.

Doubt that. QBs are the most valuable position on a football team and draft position, regardless of what people want to believe, is larger determined by the simple concept of supply and demand. Especially in the first few rounds. I consider Tanehill just as good of a prospect as Joe Flacco and he got drafted 18th overall. How about Jake Locker and Christian Ponder? Thet were drafted 8th and 12th overall respectively and Tannehill has way more potential than both of them, IMO. Blaine Gabbert was taken 10th overall and he looks like hot garbage.

 

[whizafriz]

Well, you know if we pass he'll blow up the NFL and if we take him he'll bust. It's just sort of the way it seems to go for us.

lolz
Im hoping the coaching change will put an end to the "dampening" of talent coming here. There hasnt been many players that we've acquired besides Jake Long , Cam Wake, and Reggie Bush that have really taken it to the next level. Hopefully Philbin introduces a winning mentality that can really take advantage of any QB coming here, instead of seeing them get their wings clipped and slowly go down in flames.

Honestly I don't care which QB we get, I haven't been keeping track of the draft stocks. I just want the coaching to be there and start producing winners.

 

[Geforce]

So you really wanna take a risk on weeden/osweiler?


http://www.sulia.com/channel/nfl-draft-2012/f/ebd6ec1f-9a56-48f8-a0cb-d2cd666a3501/?source=twitter

Interesting info, except Tony Romo has won a playoff game. He and the Cowboys defeated the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs in 2009.

 

[Vaark]

If not for his age, Weeden would be more of a first round selection than Tanny!!!

(so maybe we should trade back and take him towards the end of the first round to stack the odds in his favor, eh?)

 

[Geforce]

You don't draft a QB in the 1st round, much less a TOP 10 pick, and sit him. The Jets, moved up and grabbed their QB and have commited long term to him. Now do I think that was smart? NO. But at least after 3-4 years you know what you have.

Actually you do. Of the 31 QBs drafted in the 1st round since 2000, only nine started the first game of their rookie season with six of those coming in the last four seasons.

Of the 18 QBs drafted in the Top 10 since 2000, 11 did not begin their respected season as the starting QB.

 

[shanegerard]

By and large the 2nd round qb doesn't work anymore. It worked back when you could get Joe Montana in the 3rd round because nobody knew what they were doing draft wise. There is too much tape now. Brees fell out of the first against all ofds purely because he is 5"11. The John Beck/Kolb/McCoy/Stanton/Frye type 2nd round pick just doesn't work anymore.

There will always be a freak like Brady or someone like Romo who played at a college nobody ever heard of but 95% of the time if you want a qb you better take him in the top 10.

 

[Gonzo]

Doubt that. QBs are the most valuable position on a football team and draft position, regardless of what people want to believe, is larger determined by the simple concept of supply and demand. Especially in the first few rounds. I consider Tanehill just as good of a prospect as Joe Flacco and he got drafted 18th overall. How about Jake Locker and Christian Ponder? Thet were drafted 8th and 12th overall respectively and Tannehill has way more potential than both of them, IMO. Blaine Gabbert was taken 10th overall and he looks like hot garbage.

Had Barkley and Jones come out, would he have gone top ten? Not a chance. He's shot up because QBs are a hot commodity.

I've been as vocal about fixing the QB position as anybody on here. I'm just not convinced Tannehill is worth the #8. I won't be upset if we pick him; certainly not as upset as if we draft RT, but I'm just not convinced. TedSlimm outlined why perfectly.

 

[LikeUntoGod]

I still think that the pressure to play QBs so early hurts them.

 

[Vaark]

Had Barkley and Jones come out, would he have gone top ten? Not a chance. He's shot up because QBs are a hot commodity.

I've been as vocal about fixing the QB position as anybody on here. I'm just not convinced Tannehill is worth the #8. I won't be upset if we pick him; certainly not as upset as if we draft RT, but I'm just not convinced. TedSlimm outlined why perfectly.

Was just thinking about that the other day: if Barkley came out, RG3 would be playing for Cleveland.

 

[traptses]

Was just thinking about that the other day: if Barkley came out, RG3 would be playing for Cleveland.

Disagree. If Barkley came out, he or RG3 would be playing for the Dolphins, who traded up with Minnesota

 

[Buddwalk]

wasnt drew brees a second round pick?

 

[Geforce]

wasnt drew brees a second round pick?

Yes he was but that was before 2003.

 

[fishbanger]

From last years draft

Newton Starter
Locker backup
Ponder Starter
Dalton second round starter

 

[AdamD13]

03
Carson Palmer #1 Cin
Byron Leftwich #7 Jac
Kyle Boller #19 Bal
Rex Grossman #22 Chi
04
Eli Manning #1 NYG
Phillip Rivers #4 SD
Ben Roethlisberger #11 Pit
JP Losman #22 Buf
05
Alex Smith #1 SF
Aaron Rodgers #24 GB
Jason Campbell #25 Was
06
Vince Young #3 Ten
Matt Lienart #10 Ari
Jay Cutler #11 Chi
07
JaMarcus Russell #1 Oak
Brady Quinn #22 Cle
08
Matt Ryan #3 Atl
Joe Flacco #18 Bal
09
Matthew Stafford #1 Det
Mark Sanchez #5 NYJ
Josh Freeman #17 Tam
10
Sam Bradford #1 StL
Tim Tebow #25 Den
11
Cam Newton #1 Car
Jake Locker #8 Ten
Blaine Gabbert #10 Jac
Christian Ponder #12 Min

On the flip side the QBs in bold have pretty much been failures as quality starters so far.

Keep in mind as well is that 1st round draft picks usually get every opportunity to succeed even when they play poorly in the game b/c of the investment. Non 1st rounders are on a short leash and many don't ever get the opportunity to prove themselves.

Looks like only 12 of 27 have gone to start a playoff game, only 8 have won a playoff game, only 4 made it to the Super Bowl and only 3 won a Super Bowl.

Drafting a QB in round 1 is no guarantee.