Out of the box, useful concepts for building great NFL teams... | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Out of the box, useful concepts for building great NFL teams...

SF Dolphin Fan said:
Bad officiating costs Brees another super bowl appearance, but yes it really comes down to team and is ultimately at team game. If you can get those premium positions filled with good players that is huge. Teams can only sign so much talent, so having role players or players who can play multiple positions helps as well.

Building a team that dominates on defense is so difficult now, though, especially long-term. That's why I think it's those premium positions and fill in with low cost/versatile players.
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Don't forget the other end - bad players. That's what top teams DON'T have, at least until injuries pile up. Yes, try for premium players, but don't forget to replace the bad ones with equal fervor
 
NBP81 said:
Yes!

You were correct with your first crack at it, QB's bust factor is right inline with other positions. What makes it a good bet is the incredible value of actually hitting. This is not an exact science by any means but QBs are so far ahead that there's just no argument to be made here.

I agree with this, the main reason I am advocating getting the QB now is about position, the cost might be high to land a QB now, are you willing to risk the Fins having a mediocre season next year and drafting at pick 15+? What do you think the cost will be then?

As for reaching, once you have QB solved, there are plenty of position groups that will be good value, if there are really none of them all that appealing, you could consider getting value by either trading for future picks, or just drafting high value positions were you are already set. The latter would either solidify an already solid unit, or allow you to trade solid high value vets for more draft capital and at the same time reseting the rookie contract clock. Win-win-win
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I agree with this. My only qualification is don't draft a QB just because the need is high. Call it reaching- call it anything we like, but high need doesn't equate to desperation. I know you agree with that. The trick for each team is finding the balance
 
fansinceGWilson said:
I agree with this. My only qualification is don't draft a QB just because the need is high. Call it reaching- call it anything we like, but high need doesn't equate to desperation. I know you agree with that. The trick for each team is finding the balance
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Completely agree, which is why Im so happy he is calling it what it is - an expansion team on steroids. We are ENTERING year 2 of a 3 year process. No concern of job security from our head coach nor ourGM, so they can make decision without that extra weight on their shoulders. No need for fans to completely overreact should we opt to not draft a QB in the 1st this year - tells me we simply saw the risks, compared the reward to the cost and opted to go another direction. Reminds me of an old thing I learned in law - if your strategy is effective, your client will hate you all the way until you win - all people care about is results, and those results need to be the result of something they understand or follows their preconceived notions. We don't have that here. We have a team looking to completely rebuild as a total unit - QB included - and has repeatedly stated they are here for the long haul.

Now Compare that with a team like Detroit. I bet they're going to be making some wild decisions over the next 2 seasons, solely because they are absolutely not ready to be in the rebuild position. Im just not sure how you can see us and not think we're in a much much better position than they (and others, such as Cinci) due to the rebuild. We're trying to piece together everything, taking advantage of folks who are so eager to move up/around... to get that one big splash guy who will save their jobs.
 
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Natural born pansy with the 5 page essay! Good work
 
NBP81 said:
I’ve spent quite a lot of time the last couple of months trying to understand how the NFL works. Most of what I’ve found I’ve been arguing to death around here for quite some time now, but some of it is hard to get across when splattered over multiple conversations and different threads. I expect to get bombarded in this thread and that’s fine. You probably won’t agree with most things I have to say here but my hope is that I can provide and few things that will make you view things differently.

The Fins are really in a special position this time around as they have the opportunity to start over with tons of assets and space under the cap. They’re basically an expansion team on steroids. In this post I will just illustrate some of the flaws in thinking that plague a lot of teams in the NFL and how the Fins can avoid them and then explain some of the edges that exist in the NFL and how they can exploit them.

“We are 1 or 2 players away”

This is the most obvious flaw around in the NFL. Teams are trying to win next season and it causes them to make crucial mistakes that they weren’t making when actually building that team to be 1 or 2 players away, it causes them to go flat out bonkers and puts them in all or nothing mode where everything falls apart when that window closes.

“Defense wins championships”, “Passing is crucial for scoring points and winning games” are heavily debated here and both hold some truth, but reality is great teams win championships. Most focus on how to win next season instead of focusing on how to build great teams that last.

Spend most of your time trying to illustrate what a good decision looks like in every aspect of building a team, and then just focus on making the right call at every decision point, regardless of the outcomes. Outcomes are full of noise and are very likely to steer you in the wrong direction more often than not.

I think most GMs truly believe that their edge lies in their ability to identify talent better than other teams. I might catch some flak here but I think that thinking is fools gold and very likely to be a losers game. Ever heard something around the lines of “80% of people believe they are above average drivers ” ? Well Im flat out certain that this also applies to NFL GMs.

Instead of trying to outsmart everyone, look for unexploited edges that are splattered all over the place in all aspects of team building and football strategy and pound them.

The NFL draft

“Best player available”, “Filling needs” and a combination of both is outdated. Ever since they installed the rookie wage scale, the draft has been a completely different animal, yet most teams still draft the same way they used to before that event. It isn’t about filling needs and trying to find the best players any more, it’s about getting value.

The reason I’m saying that is because draft picks have actually become free cap space tickets. Literally. The rookie you pick will get paid a pre determined amount regardless of the position he plays. In a way, having a starting QB(picked in round 1 or 2) on his rookie contract will save you from around 12M per to 8M per for 5 years depending on his draft slot.

For comparison sake, a RB drafted in the same rounds will actually net you at least -3M per against the cap since they are such an underpaid position. I picked the most extreme case to illustrate my point but it’s absolutely something teams should consider.

Ignoring this concept because you are 1-2 players away doesn’t make it any less of a mistake, filling teams needs or trying to outsmart everyone thinking you can ID good players better than anyone while ignoring value is a mistake. Small mistakes add up pretty fast in the NFL and this is how you end up in cap hell.

I’ve already gone deeper on this subject, if you’re interested to read more about it, the following posts explain the concept in more depth and also include visuals.






“Offensive Coordinators”

J-off-her-doll is actually the one who caught my attention on this subject and while I haven’t done any research about it, I feel the role is just to important these days to keep it out of the discussion.

This is all opinion but I feel the role is mismanaged in general. Most of them hold the responsibility of teaching players how to execute different plays on top of having to elaborate an overall offensive strategy and execute/call that strategy in game.

Call me crazy but those 2 roles are so far from another when it comes to the skillset required to be good at one or the other that Im sort of baffled as to why teams feel the need to give both those roles to one person. Again, this is only my opinion but teams should absolutely explore the possibility that they would be better off having 2 specialists for the job.

Get the best teacher you can get your hands on to teach the players how to execute your plays, and go out and get the best strategist you can get your hands on to build and execute your strategy in game. The offensive coordinator and the playcaller.

Most NFL teams do stupid things

… And it’s understandable. Most of these guys get hired and have so little time to show results that the long term is not something they can afford. They flat out start behind and are most often forced into making costly mistakes that accumulate fast and quickly become a big part of their demise.

I think the Fins FO and CS just might have a decent enough leach that they’d have the time to really build a strong foundation of making good decisions that profit the long term as well as the not so long term. Don’t try and “win this season”, make decisions that are optimal at every turn and the great team will follow, and it will be a sustainable one.

Further discussion

While I’m pretty much done with this post, there are many many more edges to be exploited in the current NFL, those were just some obvious ones to me. Free agency and in game strategies are full of them and I’d encourage anyone who has some ideas on this subject to post them in this thread.

I don’t expect anyone to agree with everything I just said, TBH I expect that alot of you will flat out throw rocks at me and that’s fine. My hope is that some take some nuggets in there and it gets you to think about how the NFL truly works behind the scenes.
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Good read bro. At the end of the day, there's no perfect way to build a team but I totally agree that too many teams/people like to think they're one or two players away and that's when they get in trouble.

As for our Dolphins, we have a whole team to build and balance is huge.
 
Thank you NBP81. I have preached "fiscal responsibility" in draft picks for awhile but it is lost on the "BPA" guys.

For me there are only a few positions I would want the Dolphins to consider for the first five in picks in the first two rounds. Namely (in no particular order) QB, Offensive tackle, WR, DE, CB, and DT. I don't care how good a RB, TE, OG, OC, or Safety is, it just makes more sense to pay for proven talent in the FA market than to draft them that high.

Blows my mind when I see so many banging the table for Delpit, Simmons, and Biadasz in the first.
 
No offense, but damn there are some long winded post in this thread, just saying LOL
 
Russ57 said:
Thank you NBP81. I have preached "fiscal responsibility" in draft picks for awhile but it is lost on the "BPA" guys.

For me there are only a few positions I would want the Dolphins to consider for the first five in picks in the first two rounds. Namely (in no particular order) QB, Offensive tackle, WR, DE, CB, and DT. I don't care how good a RB, TE, OG, OC, or Safety is, it just makes more sense to pay for proven talent in the FA market than to draft them that high.

Blows my mind when I see so many banging the table for Delpit, Simmons, and Biadasz in the first.
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I think it certainly wouldnt be a bad approach to take although I believe the interior OL is about to gain significant value in the coming years. As for the defensive players, I'd only consider explosive DEs with very high upside and dominant pass rushing DTs that high in the draft.

But would feel much more comfortable picking them after I have secured the QB and the tackle first, and even then, I might consider adding a 2nd Tackle before even considering a DT(Dont throw rocks please :lol: ) all else being equal, but thats just me. Pure value wise, your list is solid.
 
NBP81 said:
Thank you fish! good job with the awards BTW! You're doing an excellent job!
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I had a few snafus but it's going well now. Thanks for the support

NBP is running in the best VIP and best poster categories so go vote for him there guys
 
fansinceGWilson said:
I agree with this. My only qualification is don't draft a QB just because the need is high. Call it reaching- call it anything we like, but high need doesn't equate to desperation. I know you agree with that. The trick for each team is finding the balance
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This should be the highest priority question being evaluated by Dolphins people all off-season long. This will set the stage for their whole tenure. How much is the QB2 worth to you in this draft, how much are you actually willing to pay.

This such a particular case, The better the odds of recovery(good for the Fins) the higher the cost to aquire him will be(bad for the Fins). Balance is the absolute perfect word, where is the sweet spot? This is a much tougher question to anwser than it looks.

If I put it to you this way, which option would you prefer, assuming you like Tua(if you dont like Tua as a prospect, just assume a great prosect for the sake of discussion):
  1. Tua is still banged up but the outlook is still promising, you can pick him at 5.
  2. Tua is recovered, holds a pro day and throws, looks very good but still not 100%, need to move up to 3... #5 + 2a.
  3. Tua is running around throwing darts before the draft, the dude is like brand new. Move up to 2... #5 + #26 + 3rd round pick
Thats a flat out uncomfortable thing to anwser. Where is the sweet spot?
 
NBP81 said:
This should be the highest priority question being evaluated by Dolphins people all off-season long. This will set the stage for their whole tenure. How much is the QB2 worth to you in this draft, how much are you actually willing to pay.

This such a particular case, The better the odds of recovery(good for the Fins) the higher the cost to aquire him will be(bad for the Fins). Balance is the absolute perfect word, where is the sweet spot? This is a much tougher question to anwser than it looks.

If I put it to you this way, which option would you prefer, assuming you like Tua(if you dont like Tua as a prospect, just assume a great prosect for the sake of discussion):
  1. Tua is still banged up but the outlook is still promising, you can pick him at 5.
  2. Tua is recovered, holds a pro day and throws, looks very good but still not 100%, need to move up to 3... #5 + 2a.
  3. Tua is running around throwing darts before the draft, the dude is like brand new. Move up to 2... #5 + #26 + 3rd round pick
Thats a flat out uncomfortable thing to anwser. Where is the sweet spot?
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If you believe a QB will be elite you do whatever it takes to get him but if not you can wait for a good system fit . To me Burrow And Tua Are Elite nobody else is
 
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