I’ve spent quite a lot of time the last couple of months trying to understand how the NFL works. Most of what I’ve found I’ve been arguing to death around here for quite some time now, but some of it is hard to get across when splattered over multiple conversations and different threads. I expect to get bombarded in this thread and that’s fine. You probably won’t agree with most things I have to say here but my hope is that I can provide and few things that will make you view things differently.
The Fins are really in a special position this time around as they have the opportunity to start over with tons of assets and space under the cap. They’re basically an expansion team on steroids. In this post I will just illustrate some of the flaws in thinking that plague a lot of teams in the NFL and how the Fins can avoid them and then explain some of the edges that exist in the NFL and how they can exploit them.
“We are 1 or 2 players away”
This is the most obvious flaw around in the NFL. Teams are trying to win next season and it causes them to make crucial mistakes that they weren’t making when actually building that team to be 1 or 2 players away, it causes them to go flat out bonkers and puts them in all or nothing mode where everything falls apart when that window closes.
“Defense wins championships”, “Passing is crucial for scoring points and winning games” are heavily debated here and both hold some truth, but reality is great teams win championships. Most focus on how to win next season instead of focusing on how to build great teams that last.
Spend most of your time trying to illustrate what a good decision looks like in every aspect of building a team, and then just focus on making the right call at every decision point, regardless of the outcomes. Outcomes are full of noise and are very likely to steer you in the wrong direction more often than not.
I think most GMs truly believe that their edge lies in their ability to identify talent better than other teams. I might catch some flak here but I think that thinking is fools gold and very likely to be a losers game. Ever heard something around the lines of “80% of people believe they are above average drivers ” ? Well Im flat out certain that this also applies to NFL GMs.
Instead of trying to outsmart everyone, look for unexploited edges that are splattered all over the place in all aspects of team building and football strategy and pound them.
The NFL draft
“Best player available”, “Filling needs” and a combination of both is outdated. Ever since they installed the rookie wage scale, the draft has been a completely different animal, yet most teams still draft the same way they used to before that event. It isn’t about filling needs and trying to find the best players any more, it’s about getting value.
The reason I’m saying that is because draft picks have actually become free cap space tickets. Literally. The rookie you pick will get paid a pre determined amount regardless of the position he plays. In a way, having a starting QB(picked in round 1 or 2) on his rookie contract will save you from around 12M per to 8M per for 5 years depending on his draft slot.
For comparison sake, a RB drafted in the same rounds will actually net you at least -3M per against the cap since they are such an underpaid position. I picked the most extreme case to illustrate my point but it’s absolutely something teams should consider.
Ignoring this concept because you are 1-2 players away doesn’t make it any less of a mistake, filling teams needs or trying to outsmart everyone thinking you can ID good players better than anyone while ignoring value is a mistake. Small mistakes add up pretty fast in the NFL and this is how you end up in cap hell.
I’ve already gone deeper on this subject, if you’re interested to read more about it, the following posts explain the concept in more depth and also include visuals.
“Offensive Coordinators”
J-off-her-doll is actually the one who caught my attention on this subject and while I haven’t done any research about it, I feel the role is just to important these days to keep it out of the discussion.
This is all opinion but I feel the role is mismanaged in general. Most of them hold the responsibility of teaching players how to execute different plays on top of having to elaborate an overall offensive strategy and execute/call that strategy in game.
Call me crazy but those 2 roles are so far from another when it comes to the skillset required to be good at one or the other that Im sort of baffled as to why teams feel the need to give both those roles to one person. Again, this is only my opinion but teams should absolutely explore the possibility that they would be better off having 2 specialists for the job.
Get the best teacher you can get your hands on to teach the players how to execute your plays, and go out and get the best strategist you can get your hands on to build and execute your strategy in game. The offensive coordinator and the playcaller.
Most NFL teams do stupid things
… And it’s understandable. Most of these guys get hired and have so little time to show results that the long term is not something they can afford. They flat out start behind and are most often forced into making costly mistakes that accumulate fast and quickly become a big part of their demise.
I think the Fins FO and CS just might have a decent enough leach that they’d have the time to really build a strong foundation of making good decisions that profit the long term as well as the not so long term. Don’t try and “win this season”, make decisions that are optimal at every turn and the great team will follow, and it will be a sustainable one.
Further discussion
While I’m pretty much done with this post, there are many many more edges to be exploited in the current NFL, those were just some obvious ones to me. Free agency and in game strategies are full of them and I’d encourage anyone who has some ideas on this subject to post them in this thread.
I don’t expect anyone to agree with everything I just said, TBH I expect that alot of you will flat out throw rocks at me and that’s fine. My hope is that some take some nuggets in there and it gets you to think about how the NFL truly works behind the scenes.