PBP: Deep dive: Inside Miami Dolphins’ shrewd trade for Kiko Alonso, Byron Maxwell

[BobDole]

At the end of the day when you take a big gamble, luck has to play a factor. You aren't going to get unlucky and have a gamble workout and vice versa. The way I look at it is, the value we gave up wasn't that substantial. We moved down 5 spots and the value of the players available were comparable. Then we added two starters, one of which appears to be a key piece and a significantly weak area on our team in Alonso. I think Maxwell has entirely returned on the value of his contract with his play of late now that he's comfortable in the system. He has his flaws no doubt, but he's shutdown Antonio Brown and Brandon Marshall off the top of my head, and played great again today.

As I said regarding Tunsil being luck, many people wanted Jack at 8. He was available at 13. Hargreaves obviously didn't fit the profile of what Vance wanted in his DB's, and there's no guarantee he would flourish in this system (he's graded out poorly so far to boot). If Tunsil were to start becoming another Jake Long it still wouldn't effect my judgement of the trade. He didn't have medical red flags coming out and he was absolutely the correct pick at the time.

I'd argue the best teams in football are the luckiest. If we'd had a bit more luck in the past we'd be in better shape, but we've never had a lot of luck on our side (and we made flat out poor decisions anyway). I guess the Pats are lucky for Brady, but nobody is bashing them for lucking into him. It's not like they had some 3rd round grade on him and saw greatness, otherwise they wouldn't have taken him in round 6.

I agree with that line of thought. I was just defending why I said luck played a major role. Hindsight was not 20/20 at the time of the trade.

You might want to go back and check out tunsil's injury history in college.

 

[FearTheBeard]

I agree with that line of thought. I was just defending why I said luck played a major role. Hindsight was not 20/20 at the time of the trade.

You might want to go back and check out tunsil's injury history in college.

Ya and what I'm basically saying is they took a calculated risk, and I don't view the compensation as particularly significant. So with compensation that is a little overblown, combined with the fact these players had reasons for both success and failure the deal wasn't driven by luck. We got lucky in the sense that these players have performed towards the potential reasons for success versus their potential reasons for failure. But obviously they thought these players for the risks they carried had positive factors attached to them as well, and they look smart for identifying them. The fact that Tunsil slid is just the cherry on top.

Yeah I'm aware of Tunsil's injury history. Just never heard it being played up as a major red flag. He was a consensus top 2 draft prospect, so clearly it wasn't that big a fear.

 

[BobDole]

Ya and what I'm basically saying is they took a calculated risk, and I don't view the compensation as particularly significant. So with compensation that is a little overblown, combined with the fact these players had reasons for both success and failure the deal wasn't driven by luck. We got lucky in the sense that these players have performed towards the potential reasons for success versus their potential reasons for failure. But obviously they thought these players for the risks they carried had positive factors attached to them as well, and they look smart for identifying them. The fact that Tunsil slid is just the cherry on top.

Yeah I'm aware of Tunsil's injury history. Just never heard it being played up as a major red flag. He was a consensus top 2 draft prospect, so clearly it wasn't that big a fear.

I think it's because none of the injuries were recurring but he was banged up all the time at ole miss. Shoulders, legs, ankles, you name it. Praying that was a thing of the past and these current setbacks aren't a sign of things to come.

 

[phintim]

Maybe Tunsil is a pothead so Ozzie Newsome passes who was looking at OL help at the top of this years draft.
Kiko injured 2 out of 3 years maybe he will be healthy this year.
Maxwell a flop in Philly maybe Vance Joseph can turn him around.
So far looking good at 2 out of 3 of those maybes and the Maxwell situation is looking better. Hind sight is easy 20 20 vision and if you could do it in stocks we would all be millionares. So basically every one is agreeing with you its looking good but some of us not agreeing that Tannabaums foresight was that great. Lets put it this way just for perspective we used 10 picks in this years draft and only one playing part time today on a punt return paid dividends in todays win is that a great front office or just unlucky?

 

[roy_miami]

I never had an issue with this trade, effectively in terms of trade value we traded a mid second round pick for Alonso and Maxwell. For me it would always depend on how they played.

I'm still real curious to know who we'd have picked had Tunsil not fallen though.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Maybe Tunsil is a pothead so Ozzie Newsome passes who was looking at OL help at the top of this years draft.
Kiko injured 2 out of 3 years maybe he will be healthy this year.
Maxwell a flop in Philly maybe Vance Joseph can turn him around.
So far looking good at 2 out of 3 of those maybes and the Maxwell situation is looking better. Hind sight is easy 20 20 vision and if you could do it in stocks we would all be millionares. So basically every one is agreeing with you its looking good but some of us not agreeing that Tannabaums foresight was that great. Lets put it this way just for perspective we used 10 picks in this years draft and only one playing part time today on a punt return paid dividends in todays win is that a great front office or just unlucky?

I don't know. You could ask Kiko and his 1 INT and fumble recovery. You could ask Maxwell with his lockdown coverage. You could ask Andre Branch who was solid all day. Maybe ask Sam Young, Kraig Urbik and Jermon Bushrod who at least kept Tannehill upright most of the night. Or even ask Bacarri Rambo who they found on the street.

It's easy to attribute a game today to luck when two picks that look like cornerstones are out. Oh ya, maybe ask Carroo who scored a key TD.

At the end of the day, my biggest point is this. Did we really give up that much? We moved down 5 spots in a draft where the value wasn't wildly different. So how can this be some huge risk that only succeed because of luck. The assets were risks, the compensation was minimal. Whether we end up with Jack, Apple or Conklin.

 

[BobDole]

Ya and what I'm basically saying is they took a calculated risk, and I don't view the compensation as particularly significant. So with compensation that is a little overblown, combined with the fact these players had reasons for both success and failure the deal wasn't driven by luck. We got lucky in the sense that these players have performed towards the potential reasons for success versus their potential reasons for failure. But obviously they thought these players for the risks they carried had positive factors attached to them as well, and they look smart for identifying them. The fact that Tunsil slid is just the cherry on top.

Yeah I'm aware of Tunsil's injury history. Just never heard it being played up as a major red flag. He was a consensus top 2 draft prospect, so clearly it wasn't that big a fear.

Snuck that first paragraph in there after the fact without me noticing. Sneaky sneaky FTB.

The compensation wasn't significant because of how it turned out ... tunsil falling. We take lawson there and all of a sudden this conversation isn't happening and we're ready to nail tannenbaum to the wall.

There's a risk v reward with any player in the NFL. Alonso being hurt for most of his career and maxwell underperforming in Philly then here to start out ... that's a tough one that was really hard for me to get behind because that kind of stuff is not high percentage and typically does not work out for the dolphins.

My original post was responding to someone saying 'eat crow' like it was some sort of home run, no brainer move. Correcting that line of thought was the intention.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Snuck that first paragraph in there after the fact without me noticing. Sneaky sneaky FTB.

The compensation wasn't significant because of how it turned out ... tunsil falling. We take lawson there and all of a sudden this conversation isn't happening and we're ready to nail tannenbaum to the wall.

There's a risk v reward with any player in the NFL. Alonso being hurt for most of his career and maxwell underperforming in Philly then here to start out ... that's a tough one that was really hard for me to get behind because that kind of stuff is not high percentage and typically does not work out for the dolphins.

My original post was responding to someone saying 'eat crow' like it was some sort of home run, no brainer move. Correcting that line of thought was the intention.

Haha I often post something and realize there's stuff I want to add. Not by design.

And for sure there's a handful of guys we could have drafted that would make this look worse. But there have been reports of who they were targeting, and Lawson wasn't one of them. Off the top of my head Conklin, Jack, Apple and another I'm forgetting were who they were targeting before Tunsil fell. Obviously Conklin wasn't there, but he could have been pushed down if the Titans were comfortable with Tunsil and took the chance (that we ultimately did). And I'd have been entirely hapy with Apple or Jack. It's pretty clear that their gauge on where the value in the draft was, and who they liked was accurate.

So what were we really losing with this trade? We had a board where guys they liked would likely be available whether at 8 or 13 with a minimal drop-off in value. They were also right about at least one of them being there in Jack. Who's to say that Tunsil wouldn't have been a fit for the Giants too, pushing Apple down. All plausible based on needs. So the loss in value was minimal. We also pay a smaller rookie contract picking at 13 versus 8. Obviously a small gain, and obviously on the merits that you're likely getting a worse prospect there.

They take a risk on two players in a transition year. If they fail they fail. To me it's still a pretty small failure if you work on the premise that Hargreaves didn't fit what they were looking for in a DB and he doesn't become some all-pro, and they end up with one of the aforementioned guys they were believed to have been targeting. Basically you lose some money paying Maxwell his contract.

I just don't see how this deal had a huge amount of risk attached to it. I feel that way because the cost of moving down wasn't going to hurt us that much based on the guys they were rumored to covet. Tunsil just makes it look even better. If those two players fail, you still get a guy that most on the board would've been relatively high on, albeit lower than Tunsil.

And fair enough, I'm just arguing for why the trade really wasn't as risky or we weren't as lucky as people are making us out to be. :up:

 

[hoops]

Carroo TD
Kiko involved in 2 turnovers
Maxwell with a huge PBU late in that game (and a FF, thanks J-off)

Should i do this to all tbe 92%ers about the qb?

You all know who you are? Should i call you all out? I've kept record

 

[phintim]

I don't know. You could ask Kiko and his 1 INT and fumble recovery. You could ask Maxwell with his lockdown coverage. You could ask Andre Branch who was solid all day. Maybe ask Sam Young, Kraig Urbik and Jermon Bushrod who at least kept Tannehill upright most of the night. Or even ask Bacarri Rambo who they found on the street.

It's easy to attribute a game today to luck when two picks that look like cornerstones are out. Oh ya, maybe ask Carroo who scored a key TD.

At the end of the day, my biggest point is this. Did we really give up that much? We moved down 5 spots in a draft where the value wasn't wildly different. So how can this be some huge risk that only succeed because of luck. The assets were risks, the compensation was minimal. Whether we end up with Jack, Apple or Conklin.

Never attributed todays game to luck just kicking around the topic of this trade. This season for me is not about finding the right players it was have we finally found the right coach. You brought up some excellent examples of miscasts that are filling in admirely on this team right now not just named Maxwell and Kiko and IMO its more about our successful coaching staff than the players. Heck we have rosters of x dolphin players all over the NFL playing as starters righ now that proves that point. I come from the pre Marnio era when Don Shula was the difference on this team. IMO Gase and VJ were more the catalyst in these wins than the players.

 

[BobDole]

Haha I often post something and realize there's stuff I want to add. Not by design.

And for sure there's a handful of guys we could have drafted that would make this look worse. But there have been reports of who they were targeting, and Lawson wasn't one of them. Off the top of my head Conklin, Jack, Apple and another I'm forgetting were who they were targeting before Tunsil fell. Obviously Conklin wasn't there, but he could have been pushed down if the Titans were comfortable with Tunsil and took the chance (that we ultimately did). And I'd have been entirely hapy with Apple or Jack. It's pretty clear that their gauge on where the value in the draft was, and who they liked was accurate.

So what were we really losing with this trade? We had a board where guys they liked would likely be available whether at 8 or 13 with a minimal drop-off in value. They were also right about at least one of them being there in Jack. Who's to say that Tunsil wouldn't have been a fit for the Giants too, pushing Apple down. All plausible based on needs. So the loss in value was minimal. We also pay a smaller rookie contract picking at 13 versus 8. Obviously a small gain, and obviously on the merits that you're likely getting a worse prospect there.

They take a risk on two players in a transition year. If they fail they fail. To me it's still a pretty small failure if you work on the premise that Hargreaves didn't fit what they were looking for in a DB and he doesn't become some all-pro, and they end up with one of the aforementioned guys they were believed to have been targeting. Basically you lose some money paying Maxwell his contract.

I just don't see how this deal had a huge amount of risk attached to it. I feel that way because the cost of moving down wasn't going to hurt us that much based on the guys they were rumored to covet. Tunsil just makes it look even better. If those two players fail, you still get a guy that most on the board would've been relatively high on, albeit lower than Tunsil.

And fair enough, I'm just arguing for why the trade really wasn't as risky or we weren't as lucky as people are making us out to be. :up:

At the end of the day you're right because tunsil did fall, alonso has been the best mike we've had since dansby (even a better will if you ask me), and maxwell was necessary - especially with Howard's injury - so I can't argue with results. The logic is iffy but it worked out. It could've turned out tragic but it didn't. We needed players and we got a package deal. On to baltimore. :up:

 

[trojanma]

The db out of Houston they really coveted

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

[FearTheBeard]

Never attributed todays game to luck just kicking around the topic of this trade. This season for me is not about finding the right players it was have we finally found the right coach. You brought up some excellent examples of miscasts that are filling in admirely on this team right now not just named Maxwell and Kiko and IMO its more about our successful coaching staff than the players. Heck we have rosters of x dolphin players all over the NFL playing as starters righ now that proves that point. I come from the pre Marnio era when Don Shula was the difference on this team. IMO Gase and VJ were more the catalyst in these wins than the players.

I agree that a huge amount of credit has to go to the coaching staff. I often criticized the team in the past because Philbin was so incompetent (I can't stress this enough) that the players really never had a chance to reach their potential. So I'd be remiss if I didn't give this staff a ton of credit for the turnaround. The players do still need to fit tho, and whoever is buying the groceries is doing a lot right.

The db out of Houston they really coveted

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Right. William Jackson was the other guy. I would've really liked him too. Got injured early tho.

 

[Kdawg954]

Should i do this to all tbe 92%ers about the qb?

You all know who you are? Should i call you all out? I've kept record

You can . . . I bet money you would have a much easier time getting them to come on the Tannehill bandwagon than I would have getting people to jump on the Tannenbaum bandwagon lol

Once that kid started moving his ass and making defenses think, it is all I ever wanted. When you throw down the field and connect at the level he is connecting and you manuever the pocket like he is . . . It all comes together and you don't need the "great wall" in front to survive . . It certainly helps not having a blocking sled and a revolving door in front as well.

Also shows how poor the coaching was prior to Gase coming here.

And how does that "early extension" by Tannenbaum to Ryan look now? Almost like stealing and all those Suh contract detractors . . lol . . . Guy is the best DT in football.

Coming from a regime that put up the worst track record of free agency during their tenure, it sure feels good watching guys come in and have major impact on games.