PFF Tannehill analysis (3rd Ranked Passer)

[enigmatics]

One is using numbers without any regard for what actually happened on the field to make conclusions about the individuals involved. The other is looking at the play of the individuals involved regardless of the end result to make conclusions about the individuals involved. The approaches are nothing like one another.

PFF doesn't know the plays being run, who has what responsibility, what spot the ball is supposed to be thrown to, where a receiver needs to be, etc etc etc.

 

[FinHopeful]

When people criticize Pro Football Focus, they say that the grades are not an accurate reflection of what happened while completely ignoring that is not what PFF is trying to grade. They don't grade based on result, they grade based on what an individual player accomplished on any given play.

For example: Hartline's egregious drop on the deep pass from Tannehill was a perfectly placed ball. Not only does Hartline get graded negatively from dropping the pass, Tannehill probably still gets the same positive grade he would have had the pass been completed.

Right now, according to PFF, the Dolphins have the second-highest drop rate in the league (8 drops on 9.9% of passing plays). At least two of those drops (the Hartline dropped pass and the Sims dropped TD pass from the Patriots games) were perfectly thrown balls. I imagine Tannehill's QBR spikes significantly if you factor in another 50+ yards and 2 TDs.

QBR and PFF are two radically different ways of grading quarterbacks because they're looking at two completely different things.

It was a catchable ball. It was not a perfectly placed ball. Hartline has to make that play to be a good receiver.

 

[FinHopeful]

PFF doesn't know the plays being run, who has what responsibility, what spot the ball is supposed to be thrown to, where a receiver needs to be, etc etc etc.

Yes, but it is obvious sometime. On the play where Clay catches a ball behind the line and is tackle immediately, the other receiver in that route obviously did not run the correct route. He brought the corner to the play instead of clearing out the area. I do not know the route, but it know his route was not correct.

 

[psfign]

PFF doesn't know the plays being run, who has what responsibility, what spot the ball is supposed to be thrown to, where a receiver needs to be, etc etc etc.

Well then we shouldnt listen to anyone then because only the coaching staff would reliably know that information.

 

[BlueFin]

PFF doesn't know the plays being run, who has what responsibility, what spot the ball is supposed to be thrown to, where a receiver needs to be, etc etc etc.

No...but I think even the most close minded fans can agree a dropped pass is in fact a dropped pass......and we've had more than an acceptable amount.

 

[phintim]

i think the legit gripe here is whether or not tannehill can develop between the ears and in the pocket presence wise at the level of an elite qb...i was betting on those things developing with time and reps given he was so green a qb in college even coming out as a pro and after seeing how advanced his decision making was early as a rookie...

if tannehill doesnt get to that level i think it will be because i have miscalculated his development in those two regards...it may go that route or the curve that i expected and still do will start to take effect...not many qbs come out of college masters of the pocket or with it all between the ears...qbs like brady and brees for instance both had to develop and were more game manager types than legit playmakers early...tannehill has all the physical skill sets you could ever ask for and he's smart as they come...

that's what it will come down to imo...i will either nail it or be off as a result...but i'm not scared...and i won't try and make it something it's not...

as for foles i would take tannehill any day over him...he does have pretty good vertical accuracy though...something that tannehill needs to improve at

Thanks again enjoy reading your stuff

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Pro Football Focus needs a competitor. I've posted that many times previously and it needs further emphasis. PFF doesn't seem to have any clue toward the burden of their adjustments. Matt Ryan is their top rated passer for 2014. Last week adjusted yards per attempt was 2.64. That's a hilarious number. We've played TWO games and a quarterback has a 2.64 on his resume, yet he's the best to date.

I hate to keep using golf as an example. I guess it's easiest for me. Instead of accepting the signed for score, PFF's golf version would be to follow the guy around and adjust for all the drives that barely rolled into the rough, or all those unfair lipped out putts. Suddenly they have rationalized a journeyman toward the top of the list. Meanwhile, keep following that guy and you'll see a monotony of barely missed putts and barely missed fairways. That's his level. There's a term for it in horse racing, a horse who always manages to run second or third regardless of company: Sucker horse.

It bottoms out to wins, points, and yards per attempt. Eventually there's no point in digging deep and trying to pretend it's not really a barrel of apples, but some type of alien fuel source. Tannehill's body of work is getting to be fairly large and beige. Not exactly glowing.

In regard to Drew Brees, he won the Maxwell Award, if I remember correctly. That's for best college football player. I don't believe Ryan Tannehill picked up that one. Brees was high in the Heisman vote twice. He had a very normal college progression for a star NFL quarterback -- spot play as a freshman followed by starter and national prominence beginning as a sophomore and throughout his full four seasons. Give that resume to Ryan Tannehill and I'd retain far greater hope than I have now. Instead, Tannehill has never been great at any level yet there's seemingly a determination to force him there. As a handicapper I reject that type of thing. I indeed believe it's Bar Stool sucker think, far more often than not. I rely on majority not exceptions. When we bring up Drew Brees in the first place it's the classic desperate grab for an exception, as if one outlier is a calming cure all.

I bet against Drew Brees frequently in college. That's because his coach Joe Tiller had a misplaced belief in short passes as substitute for rushing attempts. It made Purdue vulnerable to top teams with aggressive defenses. Once Brees reached the NFL it took a few years before he fully shook that Tiller mentality of settling for the short pass.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

PFF doesn't know the plays being run, who has what responsibility, what spot the ball is supposed to be thrown to, where a receiver needs to be, etc etc etc.

Fine, so the next time you say Tannehill missed a throw, expect me to tell you the same.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

It bottoms out to wins, points, and yards per attempt.

Those are team stats. I don't thing anyone is happy with how the team is playing.

In regard to Drew Brees, he won the Maxwell Award, if I remember correctly. That's for best college football player. I don't believe Ryan Tannehill picked up that one. Brees was high in the Heisman vote twice. He had a very normal college progression for a star NFL quarterback -- spot play as a freshman followed by starter and national prominence beginning as a sophomore and throughout his full four seasons. Give that resume to Ryan Tannehill and I'd retain far greater hope than I have now. Instead, Tannehill has never been great at any level yet there's seemingly a determination to force him there. As a handicapper I reject that type of thing. I indeed believe it's Bar Stool sucker think, far more often than not. I rely on majority not exceptions. When we bring up Drew Brees in the first place it's the classic desperate grab for an exception, as if one outlier is a calming cure all.

Do you even bother to check what you are writing about? Did you bother to look at Brees' college completion %, YPA or TD/INT ratio and how they compare to Tannehill's?

Brees

1026 1678 61.1 11792 7.0 6.9 90 45 132.5

Tannehill

484 774 62.5 5450 7.0 6.9 42 21 134.2

Could they be any closer? Where is this greatness you speak of?

I get it, Tannehill didn't start until his junior year. IMO, that is because Sherman is an idiot.

I bet against Drew Brees frequently in college. That's because his coach Joe Tiller had a misplaced belief in short passes as substitute for rushing attempts. It made Purdue vulnerable to top teams with aggressive defenses. Once Brees reached the NFL it took a few years before he fully shook that Tiller mentality of settling for the short pass.

That looks like a pretty damn big adjustment to me. Does Tannehill get the same adjustment for shaking off the Sherman mentality?

 

[GreenMts]

I think the SCOREBOARD will say the metrics are nonsense. Football isn't figure skating or diving. QBs don't get points based on style and degree of difficulty, but for getting the ball into the end zone or close enough for a FG. Tannehill hasn't shown that he can do that very well, going back to the end of last season at least.

So would you posit that the Bills would have lost last week with RT at the helm instead of EJ. If not, would the margin have been even wider with the quarterbacks reversed?

 

[Trucanes99]

I think the SCOREBOARD will say the metrics are nonsense. Football isn't figure skating or diving. QBs don't get points based on style and degree of difficulty, but for getting the ball into the end zone or close enough for a FG. Tannehill hasn't shown that he can do that very well, going back to the end of last season at least.

the TEAM hasn't shown the ability to get the ball into the endzone.... I love how every problem with this team, with this offense in particular, is tannehill's fault.

Its his fault that we had one of the worst O-lines in history, his fault for bullygate, his fault Sherman was a complete idiot, his fault the GM was a complete moron, his fault that Philbin has a vagina, his fault the running game has been mediocre (at best), its his fault there has been inconsistent receiver play.

Its all Tannehill's fault. Thanks for the useful reminder.

 

[MarinoEqualsGod]

I can't remember if it was this thread that brought up Drew Brees' career trajectory being similar to that of Tannehills, but thought I'd put this out there. Food for thought. As most people know, Brees struggled with his consistency his first two years, much like RT has, and Brees' 2nd season was even worse than Tannehill's 2nd. Most people also know that the light finally came on for Brees in year number 3, much like we hope it will for Tannehill. Brees finished that 2004 season with 27 touchdowns and 7 INTs.

So, I went back to that 2004 season when Brees was with the Chargers to look at his first 2 games. Here's what I found:

The Chargers went 1-1 in those games as Brees went 25-43 (58%) for 355 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT 2 fumbles and 1 lost fumble. Compare that with Tannehill's first 2 games from this season: 49-81 (60.5%) for 419 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT, 1 fumble, 0 fumbles lost. Those stat lines are eerily similar and frankly, I'd take RT just by looking at that.

Now, by no means am I saying RT is the next Drew Brees, just that after 2 games, I can't believe how many people are crying that the sky is falling, draft a new QB, etc. Most here would have kicked Brees to the curb 2 games into his 3rd season as well, yet he remains a topic of conversation for Dolphins fans 12 years after we passed on him in the draft and 7 years after we passed on him in FA.

 

[Mogwai]

This is an amazing detachment from reality. One of the pff ppl has been going on local radio shows trying to explain this madness. Very unconvincing. It must be a horrifying feeling for people who like to consider themselves pseudo scouts to look at something and draw conclusions then realize they have no idea what they're talking about. This ranking is hilarious bull****. All of us who watched the games know this. We can spin and twist it however we like in an effort to avoid accepting the fallability of imperfect metrics but that doesn't make it any less false.

 

[Bumpus]

Shouright is smiling right now.




Look, I definately haven't given up on Tanny ...

But, this article should have stopped right where I stopped reading it. At the "PFF is sniffing glue" comment to close the first paragraph.

PFF is a ****ing joke.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

PFF isn't statistical analysis.

PFF is the exact opposite of statistical analysis. It's having someone grade tape and apply the eyeball test for 'pass/fail.'

IMO the biggest problem with PFF is that they don't have real scouts grading tape, just people who apply and get hired. You'll note that sometimes they revise their grades (as they did in the case of a number of Dolphins players this week) once someone higher up in the food change gets a whiff of things.