Here is an updated breakdown of Miami’s playoff chances if we finish 10-6. We still do not control our playoff fate, but there are currently three ways to get in, and we’d need only one of eight games to go our way.
Although Miami could get a playoff spot at 9-7, that outlook remains more complicated, so everything below applies only if Miami finishes 10-6.
Any Patriots loss would give us the division in a tiebreak, whether via division record (loss to Bills) or AFC record (Jaguars or Texans).
If the Pats lose once and the Jets win out to create a 3-way tie at 10-6, Miami still wins the tiebreak with the best head-to-head record among the three teams.
Any Ravens loss would assure us a playoff spot, although we can’t yet say if it would be the division or a wildcard -- that depends on the Jaguars-Patriots game in two weeks. If the Pats lose, we win the division. A Jags loss (in any game, starting Thursday vs. Indy), combined with any Ravens loss, would assure us at least a wildcard at 10-6.
The reason we’d still need a Jags loss despite beating them today is because a 3-way tiebreak could nullify our head-to-head advantage and give Jacksonville a wildcard over us via AFC record. Fortunately, the Jags-Pats matchup means we get something we need no matter who wins. (A Pats-Jags tie would not help us, however.)
Without a Ravens loss, Miami can still win a wildcard at 10-6 if Denver loses once more.
With the Broncos losing today, we’d be assured a wildcard at 10-6 if Denver loses to the Raiders or Chiefs. That would produce a 3-way tie among the Broncos, Ravens and Dolphins for both wildcards. In the first tiebreak, Denver is eliminated first (AFC record) and Baltimore gets the #1 wildcard over Miami (common games). In the second tiebreak, Miami wins via AFC record.
Even if Denver wins out and San Diego loses its final three to finish second in its division at 10-6, Miami cannot win either wildcard in a 3-way tie with the Chargers and Ravens. Initially, the Chargers’ win over Miami wouldn’t count, nor would the Ravens’ win over San Diego. In the first tiebreak, the Chargers would be eliminated first (AFC record) and the Ravens would get the #1 wildcard (common games). In the second tiebreak, San Diego wins with its head-to-head victory over Miami.
Updated: I had originally written that a Denver loss to Philadelphia wouldn’t help Miami, but examining it more closely, it might get us a wildcard:
If Denver loses to the Eagles (and the Ravens win out), the same 3-way tiebreak would include identical 8-4 AFC records, so Baltimore would win the #1 wildcard via common games. In the second tiebreak, we’d be even with Denver in common games. That brings the tiebreak to strength of victory, which Miami might win.
It gets complicated at this point, but Denver’s SOV is currently .490 and Miami’s is .440, and there are 26 games whose results we cannot project and that will affect the teams’ final SOV. (By ‘project’ I don’t mean ‘guess the winners.’ There are numerous games that must go a certain way, for example, to produce this Miami-Denver tie, so we can assume certain results.) After we project the games we can, Miami’s SOV becomes .436 and Denver’s is .442.
Of the 26 games remaining, four affect both teams’ SOV and would ‘count double’ by raising one team’s SOV while lowering the other’s: SD@Ten, Car@NYG, Cin@NYJ & Jac@Cle (our preferred winners are in italics). As if that’s not bad enough, Jets wins or losses will count twice in Miami’s SOV, while Raiders’ or Chiefs’ wins/losses will count twice in Denver’s SOV.
The bottom line: We could win a wildcard if the Ravens don’t lose and the Broncos lose only to the Eagles. It’s not a longshot, but it will help considerably if we get ‘good results’ from the four games mentioned above, along with other wins from the Jets and losses by the Raiders or Chiefs. (Obviously, it’s even better if the Raiders beat the Broncos or Ravens, or the Chiefs beat the Broncos -- but if they lose, at least it would help us if the wildcard comes to a SOV tiebreak vs. Denver.)
I know this sounds like a mess, but if the Ravens and Pats win out, it could be our only way into the playoffs at 10-6.
For those of you using things like the Yahoo playoff generator, please keep in mind that it is not reliable for tiebreaks that reach strength of victory. If all you’re entering is our games and other AFC contenders, it would be impossible for it to calculate a winner without asking you for a lot of other results in seemingly unrelated games, including NFC results. Most of the time this won’t matter, and it works fine.
