Playoff Scenarios | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Playoff Scenarios

greasyObnoxious said:
so, our back door option via San Diego just went out the window, eh?
Click to expand...

Yeah, forget San Diego now. I updated the original post to reflect that.

I'm going to take a closer look at getting in with strength of victory over Denver if they lose to Philadelphia, to see if there's any chance at all, but it doesn't look like it.
 
Minor point....

"(A Pats-Jags tie, by the way, would get us the division.)"

How? Pats would be 10-5-1. Phins would be 10-6.
 
this post is awesome, it makes me feel like a little kid again when it was pretty much every year that dan had us in contention for at least a wildcard berth and following these scenarios was so important to me.
 
I've updated the original post again, having looked far more closely at our chances if Denver loses to Philadelphia. If the Ravens win out, we'd end up in a 2-way tiebreak with Denver for the #2 wildcard, determined by strength of victory. Denver's SOV lead looked too large to overcome, but it isn't. Here's the update I just posted:

If Denver loses to the Eagles (and the Ravens win out), the same 3-way tiebreak would include identical 8-4 AFC records, so Baltimore would win the #1 wildcard via common games. In the second tiebreak, we’d be even with Denver in common games. That brings the tiebreak to strength of victory, which Miami might win.

It gets complicated at this point, but Denver’s SOV is currently .500 and Miami’s is .440, and there are 26 games whose results we cannot project and that will affect the teams’ final SOV. (By ‘project’ I don’t mean ‘guess the winners.’ There are numerous games that must go a certain way, for example, to produce this Miami-Denver tie, so we can assume certain results.) After we project the games we can, Miami’s SOV becomes .436 and Denver’s is .442.

Of the 26 games remaining, four affect both teams’ SOV and would ‘count double’ by raising one team’s SOV while lowering the other’s: SD@Ten, Car@NYG, Cin@NYJ & Jac@Cle (our preferred winners are in italics). As if that’s not bad enough, Jets wins or losses will count twice in Miami’s SOV, while Raiders’ or Chiefs’ wins/losses will count twice in Denver’s SOV.

The bottom line: We could win a wildcard if the Ravens don’t lose and the Broncos lose only to the Eagles. It’s not a longshot, but it will help considerably if we get ‘good results’ from the four games mentioned above, along with other wins from the Jets and losses by the Raiders or Chiefs. (Obviously, it’s even better if the Raiders beat the Broncos or Ravens, or the Chiefs beat the Broncos -- but if they lose, at least it would help us if the wildcard comes to a SOV tiebreak vs. Denver.)

I know this sounds like a mess, but if the Ravens and Pats win out, it could be our only way into the playoffs at 10-6.
Click to expand...

So, if we finish 10-6, a Denver loss to the Raiders or Chiefs would assure Miami a wildcard, while a loss to the Eagles might get us one.

If the Ravens or Pats lose, this won't matter at all.
 
This whole mess really boggles the mind, but also shows how complex the NFL rules really are!
 
NYCphan said:
Here is an updated breakdown of Miami’s playoff chances if we finish 10-6. We still do not control our playoff fate, but there are currently three ways to get in, and we’d need only one of eight games to go our way.

Although Miami could get a playoff spot at 9-7, that outlook remains more complicated, so everything below applies only if Miami finishes 10-6.

Any Patriots loss would give us the division in a tiebreak, whether via division record (loss to Bills) or AFC record (Jaguars or Texans).

If the Pats lose once and the Jets win out to create a 3-way tie at 10-6, Miami still wins the tiebreak with the best head-to-head record among the three teams.

Any Ravens loss would assure us a playoff spot, although we can’t yet say if it would be the division or a wildcard -- that depends on the Jaguars-Patriots game in two weeks. If the Pats lose, we win the division. A Jags loss (in any game, starting Thursday vs. Indy), combined with any Ravens loss, would assure us at least a wildcard at 10-6.

The reason we’d still need a Jags loss despite beating them today is because a 3-way tiebreak could nullify our head-to-head advantage and give Jacksonville a wildcard over us via AFC record. Fortunately, the Jags-Pats matchup means we get something we need no matter who wins. (A Pats-Jags tie would be the worst outcome. This originally said a Pats-Jags tie gets us the division, but that was incorrect. Sorry about that.)

Without a Ravens loss, there is one way that Miami can win a wildcard at 10-6.

With the Broncos losing today, we’d be assured a wildcard at 10-6 if Denver loses to the Raiders or Chiefs. That would produce a 3-way tie among the Broncos, Ravens and Dolphins for both wildcards. In the first tiebreak, Denver is eliminated first (AFC record) and Baltimore gets the #1 wildcard over Miami (common games). In the second tiebreak, Miami wins via AFC record.

Even if Denver wins out and San Diego loses its final three to finish second in its division at 10-6, Miami cannot win either wildcard in a 3-way tie with the Chargers and Ravens. Initially, the Chargers’ win over Miami wouldn’t count, nor would the Ravens’ win over San Diego. In the first tiebreak, the Chargers would be eliminated first (AFC record) and the Ravens would get the #1 wildcard (common games). In the second tiebreak, San Diego wins with its head-to-head victory over Miami.

Updated: I had originally written that a Denver loss to Philadelphia wouldn’t help Miami, but examining it more closely, it might get us a wildcard:

If Denver loses to the Eagles (and the Ravens win out), the same 3-way tiebreak would include identical 8-4 AFC records, so Baltimore would win the #1 wildcard via common games. In the second tiebreak, we’d be even with Denver in common games. That brings the tiebreak to strength of victory, which Miami might win.

It gets complicated at this point, but Denver’s SOV is currently .500 and Miami’s is .440, and there are 26 games whose results we cannot project and that will affect the teams’ final SOV. (By ‘project’ I don’t mean ‘guess the winners.’ There are numerous games that must go a certain way, for example, to produce this Miami-Denver tie, so we can assume certain results.) After we project the games we can, Miami’s SOV becomes .436 and Denver’s is .442.

Of the 26 games remaining, four affect both teams’ SOV and would ‘count double’ by raising one team’s SOV while lowering the other’s: SD@Ten, Car@NYG, Cin@NYJ & Jac@Cle (our preferred winners are in italics). As if that’s not bad enough, Jets wins or losses will count twice in Miami’s SOV, while Raiders’ or Chiefs’ wins/losses will count twice in Denver’s SOV.

The bottom line: We could win a wildcard if the Ravens don’t lose and the Broncos lose only to the Eagles. It’s not a longshot, but it will help considerably if we get ‘good results’ from the four games mentioned above, along with other wins from the Jets and losses by the Raiders or Chiefs. (Obviously, it’s even better if the Raiders beat the Broncos or Ravens, or the Chiefs beat the Broncos -- but if they lose, at least it would help us if the wildcard comes to a SOV tiebreak vs. Denver.)

I know this sounds like a mess, but if the Ravens and Pats win out, it could be our only way into the playoffs at 10-6.

For those of you using things like the Yahoo playoff generator, please keep in mind that it is not reliable for tiebreaks that reach strength of victory. If all you’re entering is our games and other AFC contenders, it would be impossible for it to calculate a winner without asking you for a lot of other results in seemingly unrelated games, including NFC results. Most of the time this won’t matter, and it works fine.
Click to expand...
All these scenarios give me a headache.
WHY Sparano did not override that stupid Williams half back option???
 
wafinfan said:
All these scenarios give me a headache.
Click to expand...

Here's a simple version:

Dolphins make the playoffs if they finish 10-6 AND...

  • Patriots lose once OR
  • Ravens lose once OR
  • Broncos lose to the Raiders or Chiefs OR
  • Broncos lose to the Eagles, and a bunch of other games go in our favor
 
NYCphan said:
Here's a simple version:

Dolphins make the playoffs if they finish 10-6 AND...

  • Patriots lose once OR
  • Ravens lose once OR
  • Broncos lose to the Raiders or Chiefs OR
  • Broncos lose to the Eagles, and a bunch of other games go in our favor
Click to expand...
20 bucks on #2.
 
Still way too many options out there to even go over this. If Jville wins out and we win out . . .we win the division

Broncos can fall, Ravens can lose a game still . . . Steelers still out there, they very easily can get it back together and roll of 2 straight before coming to Landshark. The next 2 weeks will clear up alot of things. In the next 2 weeks:

Jville plays Indy and NE
NE plays a road division game against Buffalo and Jville
Jets still have Indy, ATL and Cincy
Bmore still has a weird Bears team . . . and 2 tricky road games @ Pitt and @ Oakland.

Hell @ Tennessee, they have won 6 of 7 . . . home against Houston who we have never beat . . . and home against the world champs . . . we may have the tuffest road of them all. No question, the schedule we had this year was BRUTAL. The only sure things on that schedule were the Tampa game (which ironically we almost lost) and home vs. Buffalo (which was our most impressive victory). Everything else, including @ Buffalo, were all tuff games on paper.
 
The Phins finally look like a respectable NFL team and also looks to have finally found their QB.

Personally I feel that both are teams are on their way up and the GPC is finally on the horizon.

GPC= (great Patriots collapse)

Looks like the real rivalry is back. The Jets do not even popup on your radar in this playoff picture?

#1 D, and #1 in rushing is the perfect recipe in these colder games. Granted our tiebreakers suck but we can definitely win out.

You guys have 3 tough games ahead, we will beat Atlanta. We can beat the Colts and Cincy at full strength too, as long as we keep the turnovers down.

It would obviously help if they started pumping their breaks a bit but we'll see.
This does seem like another year of woulda, coulda , and shoulda but this team is headed in the right direction, as is your Phins.


Great win yesterday, the whole lot of us needed that one.
 
Jet Fan Prime said:
The Phins finally look like a respectable NFL team and also looks to have finally found their QB.

Personally I feel that both are teams are on their way up and the GPC is finally on the horizon.

GPC= (great Patriots collapse)

Looks like the real rivalry is back. The Jets do not even popup on your radar in this playoff picture?

#1 D, and #1 in rushing is the perfect recipe in these colder games. Granted our tiebreakers suck but we can definitely win out.

You guys have 3 tough games ahead, we will beat Atlanta. We can beat the Colts and Cincy at full strength too, as long as we keep the turnovers down.

It would obviously help if they started pumping their breaks a bit but we'll see.
This does seem like another year of woulda, coulda , and shoulda but this team is headed in the right direction, as is your Phins.


Great win yesterday, the whole lot of us needed that one.
Click to expand...

We are geting headaches just figuring out the Fins chances!!

Granted, there are a LOT of possibilities for the Jets to get in, but in any of our possiblities, the Jets are not a factor. The reason (I believe), is that in order to advance to WC consideration in the event of a tie, is you would need to have at least split our head to head games. With the sweep I am pretty sure we knocked you out (Unless we win the division)

Now if the Pats lose and we take the division, I believe that would put you (the Jets) back into WC consideration because you split with the pats. I'm not sure how the other tiebreakers would fall though.

I'm sure ganggreen has all those numbers crunched out for you, or you could probably send a PM to NYJunc, he probably knows whats up.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom