Playoff Scenarios

[Fins1971]

We are geting headaches just figuring out the Fins chances!!

Granted, there are a LOT of possibilities for the Jets to get in, but in any of our possiblities, the Jets are not a factor. The reason (I believe), is that in order to advance to WC consideration in the event of a tie, is you would need to have at least split our head to head games. With the sweep I am pretty sure we knocked you out (Unless we win the division)

Now if the Pats lose and we take the division, I believe that would put you (the Jets) back into WC consideration because you split with the pats. I'm not sure how the other tiebreakers would fall though.

I'm sure ganggreen has all those numbers crunched out for you, or you could probably send a PM to NYJunc, he probably knows whats up.

good call. The 3rd place team in a divsion will never get the nod over 2nd place team from another division with the same record. Jets would need alot of teams to collapse down the stretch. becuz of the lousy divisional record 2-4 the jets won't move into second place unless the patise lose 2 of the next 3

 

[Jet Fan Prime]

good call. The 3rd place team in a divsion will never get the nod over 2nd place team from another division with the same record. Jets would need alot of teams to collapse down the stretch. becuz of the lousy divisional record 2-4 the jets won't move into second place unless the patise lose 2 of the next 3

I'm talking about the last WC spot.

You guys need to lose once, which is probable with your schedule.
Jax is going to lose either to the Colts or the Pats so that takes care of them.

That just leaves Baltimore who has been inconsistent all year and still has a game against the Steelers.

If we win out and all the rest just lose one we are in. That's what we are hoping for, either way I'm happy with our season. The defense is only getting better and so is Mark.

As I stated earlier the Patriots domination is coming to an end!!

 

[NYCphan]

Still way too many options out there to even go over this.

If we finish 10-6, it's actually not very complicated -- unless the only game the Ravens, Pats and Broncos lose combined, is Broncos-Eagles. Then it's complicated.

Finish 10-6, and we need one of eight other games to go our way, with a ninth (Broncos-Eagles) opening up an uncertain way in.

If we finish 9-7 though, yeah, it's still very complicated.

 

[Gamezover]

Assuming we go 9-7 with a loss to either the Titans or the Texans and beat Pit...

The Pats go 10-6 and win the division
The Broncos go 10-6 and get the #5 seed
Jax go 8-8 (loses to the Colts & Pats)
NYJ go 9-7 ( does it really matter, we hold all tie breakers)

And the Ravens lose to the Steelers at Heinz Field and go 9-7....

WHO GETS IN? DOLPHINS or RAVENS??

This seemsa very likely scenario to the way things play out. Hopefully I am wrong and we take down the Division.

 

[NYCphan]

The Jets do not even popup on your radar in this playoff picture?

I haven't bothered figuring the Jets into this because for a wildcard, any two teams from the same division break their own tie first, to eliminate one before you even start a tiebreak against teams from other divisions. And frankly, the Jets have no chance of winning any division tiebreaks against either Miami (sweep) or New England (division record), or even a 3-way tie (as mentioned in the original post).

If Miami doesn't win the division, I'd personally prefer the Jets to win it rather than New England. However, besides winning out you'd need the Pats to lose twice AND Miami to lose once.

To have any chance at a wildcard, the Jets would need one of those two things to happen (2 Pats losses or 1 Fins loss). And even then, your 5 AFC losses aren't looking too helpful, nor is your loss to Jacksonville.

Right now, although we have the same overall records, Miami's playoff chances are much better than the Jets'. Plus, the breakdown in this thread is strictly for a 10-6 finish, and we won't be losing anything to the Jets if we finish 10-6.

But look on the bright side... since you got swept by us, every win you still manage will count double in Miami's strength of victory! And there's an outside chance we'll need that to get a wildcard over Denver. Thanks in advance!

 

[NYCphan]

Assuming we go 9-7 with a loss to either the Titans or the Texans and beat Pit...

The Pats go 10-6 and win the division
The Broncos go 10-6 and get the #5 seed
Jax go 8-8 (loses to the Colts & Pats)
NYJ go 9-7 ( does it really matter, we hold all tie breakers)

And the Ravens lose to the Steelers at Heinz Field and go 9-7....

WHO GETS IN? DOLPHINS or RAVENS??

This seemsa very likely scenario to the way things play out. Hopefully I am wrong and we take down the Division.

In your scenario, the Miami-Baltimore tiebreak would go to strength of victory, with identical AFC records and 2-3 records against common opponents.

Right now, from what I can tell, it seems likely that Miami would win that tiebreak and get the second wildcard -- but that's not guaranteed. Projecting SOV at certain final records can be done to some extent, at least within a general range, but not reliably at this point.

 

[miamirw]

Thank you for this.

Basically we need to win out and have one of three teams get a loss in the nine remaining games.

If New England, Baltimore or Denver lose A GAME and we win out, we're in.

That's good to know...

Barring injury, ff all the games we need, I believe the Denver/Phili game is the most likely scenario for us.

BTW, this week's Indi/Jax game we actually want Jax to win, since that would add to our strength of victory and we could get the perfection stuff out of the way.

We have no threat from JAX because they get in if they win out. If they win out, we get the division because that means New England loses to JAX.

Very interesting...

 

[Jet Fan Prime]

With all these tie-breaking scenarios I wish the NFL would put a wild card system in like MLB.

They want to add games anyway, why not put in a week off from the end of the season to the first week of playoffs and have play-in games for the tied teams.

If teams with Identical records are getting in based on other data seems like a flawed system.

I think it would make things more interesting having that play-in game and would solve at least 1 extra week of games and maybe we could have a 17 game schedule.

 

[NYCphan]

Barring injury, ff all the games we need, I believe the Denver/Phili game is the most likely scenario for us.

It does seem the most likely, but keep in mind that that's the one game out of nine that will not guarantee us a playoff spot at 10-6. All it would do is (at worst) push us to a strength-of-victory tiebreak with Denver, which we might or might not win.

 

[JFoxx]

I really appreciate the research and effort into all this, but the best way I look at this is:
We Win out.
The rest will take care of itself.
:thanks:

 

[hilslo]

Assuming we go 9-7 with a loss to either the Titans or the Texans and beat Pit...

The Pats go 10-6 and win the division
The Broncos go 10-6 and get the #5 seed
Jax go 8-8 (loses to the Colts & Pats)
NYJ go 9-7 ( does it really matter, we hold all tie breakers)

And the Ravens lose to the Steelers at Heinz Field and go 9-7....

WHO GETS IN? DOLPHINS or RAVENS??

This seemsa very likely scenario to the way things play out. Hopefully I am wrong and we take down the Division.

This does seem a very plausible scenario. Yahoo playoff generator says the Dolphins get in, although that could be down to SOV. Either way, it is good to know we still have hope if we lose a tough road game this Sunday.

 

[NYCphan]

This does seem a very plausible scenario. Yahoo playoff generator says the Dolphins get in, although that could be down to SOV. Either way, it is good to know we still have hope if we lose a tough road game this Sunday.

My guess (and it's just a guess) is that the Yahoo gizmo might use current SOV in order to show a winner -- but it really should just say the winner can't yet be determined. As of right now, our SOV is better than Baltimore's, but only the season-ending figure matters, and there are a lot of unplayed games that will affect it.

You could include all those games and calculate the worst possible final SOV for Miami, and if it's better than the best possible SOV for Baltimore -- or vice-versa -- you could then say which one would win the tiebreak. But somehow I doubt that's what Yahoo's thing is doing.

 

[NC Fins Fan]

Playoffs?!?!? Playoffs?!?!? You guys are talking about playoffs?!?!?!




lets wait a couple of weeks and then talk about playoffs..

 

[FinFan1nDC]

My guess (and it's just a guess) is that the Yahoo gizmo might use current SOV in order to show a winner -- but it really should just say the winner can't yet be determined. As of right now, our SOV is better than Baltimore's, but only the season-ending figure matters, and there are a lot of unplayed games that will affect it.

You could include all those games and calculate the worst possible final SOV for Miami, and if it's better than the best possible SOV for Baltimore -- or vice-versa -- you could then say which one would win the tiebreak. But somehow I doubt that's what Yahoo's thing is doing.

Yeah...we need to hope for the Browns to lose out since that is where 2 of Baltimore's wins come from

 

[greasyObnoxious]

Assuming we go 9-7 with a loss to either the Titans or the Texans and beat Pit...

The Pats go 10-6 and win the division
The Broncos go 10-6 and get the #5 seed
Jax go 8-8 (loses to the Colts & Pats)
NYJ go 9-7 ( does it really matter, we hold all tie breakers)

And the Ravens lose to the Steelers at Heinz Field and go 9-7....

WHO GETS IN? DOLPHINS or RAVENS??

This seemsa very likely scenario to the way things play out. Hopefully I am wrong and we take down the Division.

if that's how things play out, the playoff generator spits us out as 6th and final wildcard, but i can't for the life of me firgure out why.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=WinningPct