Pre-Combine Board

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by j-off-her-doll, Feb 25, 2018.

  1. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    As you can see, this breaks the players into groups: Top 10, 1st, 1st/2nd, 2nd, 2nd/3rd, 3rd, and 3rd/4th. If players are in the same grouping, I think they're close. Here are some other quick notes (trying to anticipate questions):

    * Derwin James is listed as a Big-man CB, because I think it better describes what he does best than Safety. I want him matching up with receiving TE's and big WR's in man coverage, occasionally blitzing from the Slot. In my estimation, he can be a very good 2-deep Safety, but I see him as a bigger Jalen Ramsey. The instincts are solid/good enough, but if you let him man-up and use his physical tools, he can dominate. His ability to play well as a traditional Safety adds versatility.

    *Fitzpatrick is similar. Whereas, James is like a bigger Ramsey, Fitzpatrick is like a smaller Ramsey. They'll need to prove that they're elite athletes to remain premium picks, like Ramsey did, but I think they will. To be clear, I'm not saying they have to test as well as Ramsey.

    *I've slowly come around on Josh Rosen. This is the first time I've acknowledged him as a 1st-round pick. He reminds me, in turns, of Matt Ryan and Eli Manning, and that's worth a 1st.

    *RB's and WR's take a hit for the position they play.

    *Many of the OT's look like prime OG converts.

    *Moved Davenport to Pass-rush OLB (from DE), because I think that's where he has the highest ceiling/lowest floor.

    *Some players are rated higher than their 2017 seasons would indicate. Harold Landry, Dorance Armstrong, and Trenton Thompson are examples of young, talented players who had better 2016 seasons.

    *I broke up the CB's into Big-man, Big-zone, Small-man, and Small-zone groups. The idea is that some CB's may lack the physical tools to man-up with high-end WR's, but they have instincts, ball skills, and (hopefully) tackling to make a big impact for teams that run more zone. The draft is about figuring out where guys will succeed, as well as the extent to which they will, and I think this helps paint a clearer picture. It also doesn't mean that there can't be any crossover

    *I know I'm very high on DeShon Elliott, but I see him as similar to Harrison Smith. He wins everywhere and does everything well. He knows how to study tape, is smart and instinctive, and he gives you physicality and ball skills.

    *OT, DE, Pass-rush OLB, LB, and the man CB groups are more likely to change after the Combine than the other groups.

    *Not giving TE grades until after the Combine. There are no prospects I really like, and I'll see who rises from the ashes.

    *I'm not the most organized person, so let me know if I'm missing someone.

    *Please enjoy :^)

    Top 10

    QB Same Darnold USC
    DE Bradley Chubb North Carolina State
    Pass-rush OLB Harold Landry Boston College
    Stand-up LB Roquan Smith Georgia
    Big-man CB Derwin James Florida State
    Big-man CB Minkah Fitzpatrick Alabama
    S DeShon Elliott Texas

    1st Round

    QB Baker Mayfield Oklahoma
    QB Josh Rosen UCLA
    RB Saquon Barkley Penn State
    OT Connor Williams Texas
    OG Quenton Nelson Notre Dame
    C James Daniels Iowa
    DT Harrison Phillips Stanford
    Pass-rush OLB Marcus Davenport University of Texas San Antonio
    Stand-up LB Tremaine Edmunds Virginia Tech
    Stand-up LB Leighton Vander Esch Boise State

    1st/2nd Round

    RB Derrius Guice Louisiana State
    OT Jamarco Jones Ohio State
    OG Isaiah Wynn Georgia
    DT Taven Bryan Florida
    Pass-rush OLB Olasunkanmi Adeniyi Toledo
    Pass-rush OLB Dorance Armstrong Kansas
    Pass-rush OLB Josh Sweat Florida State
    Pass-rush OLB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo Oklahoma
    Stand-up LB Malik Jefferson Texas
    Big-man CB Carlton Davis Auburn
    Big-zone CB Josh Jackson Iowa
    Big-zone CB Quenton Meeks Stanford
    Small-man CB Jaire Alexander Louisville
    S Jeremy Reaves South Alabama
    S Justin Reid Stanford

    2nd Round

    RB Rashaad Penny San Diego State
    WR Courtland Sutton Southern Methodist
    OT Orlando Brown Oklahoma
    OT Chukwuma Okorafor Western Michigan
    Pass-rush OLB Uchenna Nwosu Southern California
    Stand-up LB Christian Sam Arizona State
    Big-zone CB Kameron Kelly San Diego State

    2nd/3rd Round

    QB Lamar Jackson Louisville
    RB John Kelly Tennessee
    RB Ronald Jones II Southern California
    WR Michael Gallup Colorado State
    WR DJ Moore Maryland
    OT Tyrell Crosby Oregon
    OG Will Hernandez University of Texas El Paso
    C Frank Ragnow Arkansas
    C Mason Cole Michigan
    DT Trenton Thompson Georgia
    DT Maurice Hurst Michigan
    DT Derrick Nnadi Florida State
    Pass-rush OLB Arden Key Louisiana State
    Pass-rush OLB Rashaan Evans Alabama
    Stand-up LB Frank Ginda San Jose State
    Big-man CB Isaiah Oliver Colorado
    Small-man CB Darius Phillips Western Michigan
    Small-man CB Mike Hughes Central Florida
    Small-man CB Denzel Ward Ohio State
    Small-man CB DJ Reed Kansas State
    Small-man CB Duke Dawson Florida
    Small-man CB MJ Stewart North Carolina
    S Tarvarius Moore Southern Mississippi
    S Armani Watts Texas A&M

    3rd Round

    QB Mason Rudolph Oklahoma State
    RB Kerryon Johnson Auburn
    RB Nick Chubb Georgia
    RB Royce Freeman Oregon
    WR DJ Chark Louisiana State
    WR James Washington Oklahoma State
    WR Christian Kirk Texas A&M
    WR Steve Ishmael Syracuse
    WR Cedric Wilson Boise State
    WR Calvin Ridley Alabama
    WR Anthony Miller Memphis
    WR Keke Coutee Texas Tech
    WR Dante Pettis Washington
    WR Richie James Middle Tennessee
    OT Mike McGlinchey Notre Dame
    OT Martinas Rankin Mississippi State
    OG Braden Smith Auburn
    C Billy Price Ohio State
    DE Justin Lawler Southern Methodist
    DT Da'Ron Payne Alabama
    5-tech Rasheem Green USC
    5-tech Andrew Brown Virginia
    Pass-rush OLB Jeff Holland Auburn
    Stand-up LB DeMarquis Gates Mississippi
    Big-man CB Jordan Thomas Oklahoma
    Big-zone CB Jamar Summers Connecticut
    Small-man CB Jalen Davis Utah State
    Small-man CB Arrion Springs Oregon
    S Jordan Whitehead Pittsburgh

    3rd/4th Round

    RB Mark Walton Miami
    RB Josh Adams Notre Dame
    RB Sony Michel Georgia
    DE Jeremy Smith Tulsa
    DE Duke Ejiofor Wake Forest
    DT Steven Richardson Minnesota
    DT Vita Vea Washington
    DT Folorunso Fatukasi Connecticut
    DT Tim Settle Virginia Tech
    5-tech Breeland Speaks
    Pass-rush OLB Da'Sean Downey Massachusetts
    Pass-rush OLB Hercules Mata'afa Washington State
    Stand-up LB Parris Bennett Syracuse
    Stand-up LB Darius Leonard South Carolina State
    Stand-up LB Fred Warner Brigham Young
    Big-man CB Tarvarus McFadden Florida State
    Big-zone CB Jamarcus King South Carolina
    Small-man CB Dante Jackson Louisiana State
    Small-zone CB Deatrich Nichols South Florida
    Small-zone CB Curtis Mikell Southern Mississippi
    Small-zone CB Amari Coleman Central Michigan
    Small-zone CB Parry Nickerson Tulane
    Small-zone CB Rashard Fant Indiana
    S Ronnie Harrison Alabama
    S Quin Blanding Virginia
    S Kyzir White West Virginia
    S Sean Chandler Temple
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 25, 2018
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  2. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Anthony Johnson and Jaylon Ferguson elected to return for their Senior year.

    Johnson is another Rock Hill, SC kid same as Mason Rudolph and they're familiar with each other from their high school days.

    Nice work J. Congrats on winning an overdue draft award. Well deserved.
     
  3. Danny

    Danny Finheaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Bro, you seem pretty organized to me. Thanks for the nice effort. One question. Is that where you see players going or do you think teams see it that way. Big name that jumped at me was Ridley who I see in every mock going in the first round but you got him in the 3rd?

    Ozzy rules!!
     
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  4. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Thank you, Slimm! I really appreciate that, and thanks for catching Johnson and Ferguson (edited them out). I didn't know that about Johnson and Rudolph, and they could have been a cool pairing at Oklahoma State. Johnson is almost and in-between of Washington and Ateman.
     
  5. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

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    Great list J. Can't say I agree with all of it but gotta respect the work. I'm coming around on Davenport as a top 20 pick although I think his value comes later.

    No Skai Moore, Jerome Baker, or Sam Hubbard in the top 4 rounds?
     
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  6. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

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    Iman Marshall is staying for his senior year too as far as I know.
     
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  7. NEPA Phin Phan

    NEPA Phin Phan Active Member

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    Where is Mel Kiper's #1 pick, Josh Allen?
     
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  8. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Yeah Marshall went back to school too.
     
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  9. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Thanks Danny! This is how I value the players/where I would be content drafting the players. I've never been as interested in guessing what the league will do. I do think it's interesting, and I enjoy reading from people who specialize in predicting which players will go where, but I have more fun trying to decide what a player is and what he will be - as well as what circumstances will help/hurt his potential.

    With Ridley, I see a versatile, starting WR, who can give you the occasional big game in the NFL. I've seen people rank him in the top 10 then say he'll make an excellent complimentary WR. On what planet does that make sense? Last year, we saw JuJu Smith-Schuster go late-2nd and Chris Godwin go in the 3rd. Without any hindsight (and Godwin hasn't really taken off yet), both are much better WR prospects than Ridley (believe Slimm had late-1st on both, and I believe I had both top 50). I wouldn't knock anyone for drafting him in the 2nd, but when I think of impact vs expense, it feels like a situation where, best-case, you break even. If a team drafts him in the 1st, I don't see a scenario where they recoup that value. If the players are equal, I'd favor QB, OT, OG, DE, LB, CB, or S (not SS) over WR - RB, as well. It's why you see only Sutton, Gallup, and Moore with any piece of the 2nd. The big point, for me, is that there's not a lot separating the guys I view in the 3rd, so, if there was not such a large grouping (and there always is), and if WR was a premium position like DE or CB, I'd be more in line with the people that like him in the 1st or 2nd.
     
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  10. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    ****, don't know how I missed that one. Too late to edit x_x Appreciate the heads up, Sir!
     
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  11. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Thanks BobDole! I LOVED Skai Moore, and I was sure he'd be a 2nd at worst, but after the injuries, and with him being older, I feel like he's a 5th-7th. I'm rooting for him to return to form, but that seems unlikely, so his ceiling is a little lower, and I worry about him holding up.

    I'm not high on Baker or Hubbard. Baker looks very fast, but I don't think he sees things well at all, and he didn't make a lot of plays at Ohio State. Hubbard might look better as a 5-tech. Depending on how he measures/tests, I'd be curious about that fit. As a 4-3 DE, I don't see him giving NFL OT's much of a hard time. He's strong, and he doesn't get pushed around, but I have a hard time projecting him as someone who affects the QB enough for you to want to start him.
     
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  12. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    The combine is always particularly important for pass rushers, RB's and DB's.

    Let me ask you this, what players do you believe this combine is going to be most important for? And what specific players are you most interested in seeing how they test?

    For me, this combine is most important for a kid like Nick Chubb. How he tests in order to demonstrate how far he's come back from a devastating knee injury is going to be vitally important....along with his medical evaluation in terms of structural integrity of the knee.

    I still believe a 100% healthy Nick Chubb is the best Senior back in this class. My only question has always been, exactly how close to 100% back is he? To me he looked about 75% this year, but was still incredible.

    Chubb's balance and power in the lower half are still rare. Just doesn't quite have the explosion or speed he had prior to the injury. Just a wonderful kid too. One of my favorite players in college football his entire career.
     
  13. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    With RB's and WR's, I want to see them run fast, show burst in the 10 and jumps, or show really good agility for their size. I think it's a little similar for LB, but raw speed, relative to their size, is more important for them, with the way teams spread the field.

    I agree about pass rushers and DB's. Pass rushers and CB's are typically the best athletes on the field. With Safeties, I think it's more similar to RB and WR. They need to be decent all-around athletes and to have a good trait or two, but anticipation and instincts seem to go further. Anything over 4.60 is a red flag/knock, though.

    Chubb is a great call. I agree that if he shows burst like he did in high school, top-50 is on the table. I always loved his game. I made a list this morning, and I didn't focus as much on RB or WR, but of those positions, I also really want to see Penny, Freeman, Kelly, Johnson, Walton (though, I won't hold a bad performance against him), and Adams at RB, and I want to see Sutton, Gallup, Moore, Ishmael, and Wilson at WR. I left of Ronald Jones II, because I feel confident that he'll test well. This is the list I made earlier (not concerned with Bradley Chubb):

    OT

    Connor Williams
    Jamarco Jones
    Orlando Brown
    Chukwuma Okorafor

    Pass-rush OLB

    Harold Landry
    Marcus Davenport
    Olasunkanmi Adeniyi
    Dorance Armstrong
    Josh Sweat
    Obo Okoronkwo
    Uchenna Nwosu

    Stand-up LB

    Roquan Smith
    Tremaine Edmunds
    Leighton Vander Esch
    Malik Jefferson
    Christian Sam

    CB

    Derwin James
    Minkah Fitzpatrick
    Carlton Davis
    Isaiah Oliver
    Jordan Thomas
    Jaire Alexander
    Darius Phillips
    Mike Hughes
    Denzel Ward
    DJ Reed
    Duke Dawson
    MJ Stewart
    Jalen Davis
    Arrion Springs
     
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  14. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

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    Jewell, Kiser, and Sam all need to run well and show fluidity to avoid the '2 down' label. Landry needs to blow it up to make people forget about last season. Little guys like Baker and O'Daniel need to run real well to justify their size and show teams they have the speed to cover. And I'd like to be proven wrong about Vander Esch because I'm just underwhelmed overall.

    Josh Jackson and Carlton Davis - 2 players I'm pretty confident in succeeding at the next level - would be immensely helped by strong combine performances. I don't see either getting out of the 2nd but the top 25 is looking pretty solid with good showings.

    The risers have to be looked at pretty closely too. Davenport and Edmunds (who I've always liked but thought he'd be there in the 2nd or maybe even 3rd) fit the bill this year for me. I gotta say I did not love Jordan Willis as a prospect but his combine blew me away. That kind of thing is always intriguing.

    Will be interesting to see how Vea moves at that size. Looks pretty nimble for a big man. People are all over the place on him.

    I'm with J that I also love Elliott. I almost want him to stumble a little so he can fall to us in the 2nd ... will make up for the Saints grabbing Williams last year before we had the chance.

    Measurements are pretty big too. ND listed Te'o at like 6'3" 255. Yeah, not so much.
     
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  15. Danny

    Danny Finheaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Wow. You really know your stuff man. I enjoy reading what you post. I've said this before. There are people on this board that could work for an NFL team and you'd get my vote

    Ozzy rules!!
     
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  16. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Josh Sweat and Tremaine Edmunds are going to light it up. Those two defenders are going to leave the combine the biggest winners. Along with Malik Jefferson.

    As usual, tape be damned when it comes to CB's. Some are going to leave with a big boost based off their 40 yard dash and be over drafted.

    I think Skai Moore has an important week ahead of him too in terms of his neck. I think he's an underrated linebacker.
     
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  17. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Kiser nor Sam will run well. Jewell is better than both.

    Jerome Baker will test really well. O'Daniel already dominated at the Senior Bowl. He'll test decent, which is all he needs.

    Josh Jackson needs to add some upper body strength.

    Vea is one of those rare size/athleticism guys, but this underclassman DT class is full of those at the top with Payne and Taven Bryan.

    I think Vea tends to be a little overrated in terms of the impact he's going to have at the next level initially. He's in that Phil Taylor, Danny Shelton, Dontari Poe class. We've seen it before.
     
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  18. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I agree, and i should note that I only left off Holton Hill because of all the suspensions. If not for the off-field, I'd probably have him between Fitzpatrick and Davis. Tre'Davious White is one of the primary inspirations for splitting up the CB's. I underrated him, because he didn't fit the mold of a guy who mans-up with star WR's (like a Marshon Lattimore). But, his versatility, instincts, physicality, and ball skills made him a star CB as a rookie in Buffalo. I remember that you had a 1st Round grade on White. For the record, I still liked him - had him in the 50s - but I was too focused on his limitations, rather than how good he can be in the right spot.

    For teams that run a lot of Cover 2, Quarters, and Cover 3, I think it's almost more like evaluating a Safety than a CB. You're placing more emphasis on how the player breaks on the ball, how he anticipates routes, and how physical he is at the catch point. For teams that ask their CB's to play a lot of man coverage, particularly without a lot of help, I think the 40, 3-cone, and jumps give a good indication of whether the guy has the basic tools to keep up with NFL WR's. But Josh Norman and Trumaine Johnson both ran in the 4.6's at the Combine. Both excel at playing zone and press-man with help over the top, and in the right situation, both make plays on the ball and make critical tackles. I don't think that just because someone is super athletic, it guarantees they'll be a great man-cover CB. We all remember Justin Gilbert (who I liked way too much).
     
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  19. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I can see Sam running slow. I'm having a hard time figuring out his speed. He ran a 4.74 at 206 coming out of high school. Draft Scout has him at 4.81, and I've seen other people suggest that speed is a strength and that he'll run in the 4.6's. If he does run slow, he'll drop.

    http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/combine/_/id/137903/christian-sam

    Agree on Vea. I don't think he affects the pass enough to consider early.
     
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  20. SCLSU Mud Dogs

    SCLSU Mud Dogs UCF 13-0 Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Great work.

    I still disagree on the tight ends. None of them will likely get drafted in the first round, but there are a few likely to get drafted in the second round.

    And of that group, if you look at Hayden Hurst, I think you'll like what you see. As an athlete, he wins a lot of his matchups, and he was often punished with pedestrian numbers because of QB play in his offense. A lot of his alignments also seemed similar to what Miami does with tight ends. He's not the best blocker, but he at least gives effort and often does his job in that regard. He'll be 25 to start the 2018 season, which IMO is his only knock.

    Troy Fumagalli is another guy I don't think gets enough credit as both a blocker and receiver. He's not a burner by any means, but he's a reliable pass-catching target, can move the sticks, and is strong enough to hold his own as a blocker.

    Then you breach into the Goedert/Gisecki territory, who are likely great receivers at the next level with struggles as blockers. Both players IMO can win matchups in the passing game.

    Mark Andrews I'm so-so on. He had great production in college but I don't know if he has the athletic ability to be a similar type of player in the NFL.

    I think you're discounting the tight ends a little bit. If I had to guess, once you look at them more extensively, there will be a couple you have in the second round.

    I'd love to hear your opinion on them once you get there.
     
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  21. DKphin

    DKphin A True Fan Donator

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    I think Will Hernandez goes in the 2nd maybe even the bottom of the 1st
     
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  22. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

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    I'm with him. The TEs this year leave more than a little to be desired and will be over drafted due to this lackluster class. Not a single one of them is a clean prospect and I can't wait for what I can only assume to be awful combine numbers after watching them play.

    Last year was the time to draft a TE. 1st round was golden. We chose poorly.
     
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  23. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I see a bunch of receiving TE's (not many proficient blockers), who lack the athleticism to cause significant matchup problems. We'll see how they run and test, though. Two of the best are Breneman and Hurst, but Breneman has serious medical concerns, and Hurst's age is well documented. Giesecke is my favorite to test well. Andrews should do OK. But, I'm not loving anyone enough to look TE on Day 2. We'll see.
     
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  24. Snoop

    Snoop A True Fan

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    You have Vita Vea way too low. Daniel Jeremiah had him as his 9th best player. 3rd round is criminal.
     
  25. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Why do you think he should be higher?
     
  26. Snoop

    Snoop A True Fan

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    he's closer to Ngata than Shelton. and hell even if he was another Shelton or Poe (IMO he's a better prospect than both) they went in the top half of the 1st round anyway. He moves about as well as any 340 lb player I've ever seen.

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-is-vita-vea-the-next-haloti-ngatav

    This past season, Vea racked up three sacks, eight QB hits and 28 hurries on his 273 pass-rush snaps and his pass-rushing productivity rating of 11.0 ranks No. 3 among all FBS draft-eligible defensive tackles.
     
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  27. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    They went in the top half and did not return value. I don't see Vea affecting the pass enough to warrant a premium pick. Pressure numbers are dubious, and the DT's that make plays in the NFL made plays in college. You can find guys to occupy blockers and play the run for relatively cheap.
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I don't think I can agree with the idea of Vita Vea being comparable to Phil Taylor, Danny Shelton, or Dontari Poe.

    The problem is, he's an amalgam of the three. And that's different than any of the individuals. Dontari Poe was an athletic dynamo, truly a one in a million type, but wasn't a very strong football player or defensive tackle when he came out. He wasn't brutal or good with his hands. He was on the ground a whole lot. On the other hand, Phil Taylor and Danny Shelton were those things, had strong tape, but push came to shove they weren't special athletes. Shelton and Vea aren't even on the same spectrum athletically. Shelton ran a 5.6 and Vea has had his over/under set at 4.90 (for good reason, if you've watched enough of his tape).

    The reason I have Vita Vea high is because he's brutal enough to fold big strong people over physically, while also having that ridiculous mobility which can create problems as you try and get the ball out to the perimeter. I think maybe we're a little too caught up in rigid definitions of defensive tackle worth if we need them all to have the pass rush abilities of Geno Atkins or Aaron Donald or else they're worthless.

    In this day and age, as defensive tackle snaps are disappearing in favor of defensive back snaps, condensing to fewer players in the rotation, you should probably see defensive tackle valuations barbell, as it no longer pays to fill the position with a whole lot of above average bodies. You're going to have an alpha at that position, and just how good and how versatile that alpha is, will make a strong difference.

    Linebackers have been disappearing from the NFL for a long time. The middle linebacker position is on life support compared to what it used to be. And yet guys like Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner are more valuable than ever, because they go beyond just being able to say, "I have a guy" at the position.
     
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  29. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    He's not quite Haloti Ngata. Dexter Lawrence is a kid that's closer to Ngata territory than Vea. He'd be a top 10 pick right now if he were eligible.

    Tell you what, I'd bet you and Daniel Jeremiah that Payne, Taven Bryan and Harrison Phillips are all 3 better than Vea at the next level in terms of affecting the passer. I'd take that bet in a heartbeat.
     
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  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    There's a Combine prop sitting out there with a -115 Over at 38.5 inches for Derwin James's vertical jump.

    You're welcome for the easy money.
     
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  31. ANMoore

    ANMoore Well-Known Member

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    Is size the reason your so low on Denzel ward? It's not ideal but I wouldn't wanna miss out on a player like him due to a stereotype, the dude can ball. His combine likely to be top notch too. Awesome input btw
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I'm just going to put this out there and I think it's OK to disagree on these things but it's worth looking at and knowing..

    Looking at the pass rush productivity of Vita Vea, Harrison Phillips, Taven Bryan, and Da'Ron Payne from 2015 to 2017, you have the following pressure percentages:

    Vita Vea: 13.33%
    Taven Bryan: 12.21%
    Harrison Phillips: 8.68%
    Da'Ron Payne: 7.18%.

    Worth noting that of the four players, only Da'Ron Payne saw a significant positive jump in pass rush efficiency in his final season. His pressure percentages were 6.84% and 5.59% in 2015 and 2016, but jumped to 8.53% in 2017.

    The other three all had pressure percentages that were lower in 2017 than what they achieved in 2016. In the cases of Vita Vea and Taven Bryan, those pressure percentages were slightly lower. In the case of Harrison Phillips the pressure percentage went from 9.18% to 8.14% which is a more sizable jump.

    Vita Vea has amassed 80 pressures on 600 pass rush snaps during the three years. Taven Bryan has amassed 68 pressures on 557 pass rush snaps during that span.

    The only defensive tackles with better pass rush productivity than Vita Vea in 2017 were Maurice Hurst and Breeland Speaks.
     
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  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Over the years I've always found run stop efficiency to be an intriguing signal. Run stops are tackles where the defensive player is able to stop the runner for a "failure", the criteria of which will depend on down and distance but is easily formulated.

    Harrison Phillips, as you might expect watching him on film, and as seems to be typical of these Stanford guys...he has a very high run stop percentage. He amassed 46 "stops" on 347 run snaps (13.3%). This is the best among all defensive tackle prospects.

    Deadrin Senat of South Florida and Julian Taylor of Temple come next.

    But then comes Vita Vea of Washington (#4 of 148), having produced 29 "stops" on 239 run snaps.

    Maurice Hurst ranks highly (#11 of 148) with 31 "stops" on 298 run snaps.

    Da'Ron Payne also ranks relatively highly (#18 of 148) with 27 "stops" on 295 run snaps.

    Taven Bryan is the one that comes off looking a bit one-dimensional, though still respectable in the run game, with a #52 of 148 ranking, 18 "stops" on 272 run snaps. He's got a fair amount of versatility though as he can be used outside.
     
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  34. DKphin

    DKphin A True Fan Donator

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    :biggrin I guess you can bet on anything in Vegas

     
  35. SCLSU Mud Dogs

    SCLSU Mud Dogs UCF 13-0 Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I have Deadrin Senat as a sleeper in the draft. I think he can become a quality defensive lineman in the NFL.
     
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  36. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Who is the fastest player in this draft? Last year it was Ross who was overdrafted because of it
     
  37. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Donte Jackson
     
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  38. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I just don't see Vea as a DT who stays on the field on 3rd Down in the NFL. Washington does a good job of creating pressure with stunts and games, but a lot of smart people disagree with me (CK and lot of other very good draft analysts). I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong, but I don't like him where he'll go.



    If you Twitter, I have the board posted there as well.
     
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  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    If John Franklin were invited, I would probably bet on him. Without him there, Donte Jackson seems the most solid bet.
     
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  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I see his effectiveness on stunts and games as part of what translates so well and makes him valuable. Slow guys can't do that stuff. Danny Shelton can't do that stuff. Phil Taylor can't do that stuff. But it's a really nice way to create pressure in the NFL and keep QBs on an egg timer.
     
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