Pre-Combine Board

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by j-off-her-doll, Feb 25, 2018.

  1. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Messages:
    15,925
    Likes Received:
    2,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    As you can see, this breaks the players into groups: Top 10, 1st, 1st/2nd, 2nd, 2nd/3rd, 3rd, and 3rd/4th. If players are in the same grouping, I think they're close. Here are some other quick notes (trying to anticipate questions):

    * Derwin James is listed as a Big-man CB, because I think it better describes what he does best than Safety. I want him matching up with receiving TE's and big WR's in man coverage, occasionally blitzing from the Slot. In my estimation, he can be a very good 2-deep Safety, but I see him as a bigger Jalen Ramsey. The instincts are solid/good enough, but if you let him man-up and use his physical tools, he can dominate. His ability to play well as a traditional Safety adds versatility.

    *Fitzpatrick is similar. Whereas, James is like a bigger Ramsey, Fitzpatrick is like a smaller Ramsey. They'll need to prove that they're elite athletes to remain premium picks, like Ramsey did, but I think they will. To be clear, I'm not saying they have to test as well as Ramsey.

    *I've slowly come around on Josh Rosen. This is the first time I've acknowledged him as a 1st-round pick. He reminds me, in turns, of Matt Ryan and Eli Manning, and that's worth a 1st.

    *RB's and WR's take a hit for the position they play.

    *Many of the OT's look like prime OG converts.

    *Moved Davenport to Pass-rush OLB (from DE), because I think that's where he has the highest ceiling/lowest floor.

    *Some players are rated higher than their 2017 seasons would indicate. Harold Landry, Dorance Armstrong, and Trenton Thompson are examples of young, talented players who had better 2016 seasons.

    *I broke up the CB's into Big-man, Big-zone, Small-man, and Small-zone groups. The idea is that some CB's may lack the physical tools to man-up with high-end WR's, but they have instincts, ball skills, and (hopefully) tackling to make a big impact for teams that run more zone. The draft is about figuring out where guys will succeed, as well as the extent to which they will, and I think this helps paint a clearer picture. It also doesn't mean that there can't be any crossover

    *I know I'm very high on DeShon Elliott, but I see him as similar to Harrison Smith. He wins everywhere and does everything well. He knows how to study tape, is smart and instinctive, and he gives you physicality and ball skills.

    *OT, DE, Pass-rush OLB, LB, and the man CB groups are more likely to change after the Combine than the other groups.

    *Not giving TE grades until after the Combine. There are no prospects I really like, and I'll see who rises from the ashes.

    *I'm not the most organized person, so let me know if I'm missing someone.

    *Please enjoy :^)

    Top 10

    QB Same Darnold USC
    DE Bradley Chubb North Carolina State
    Pass-rush OLB Harold Landry Boston College
    Stand-up LB Roquan Smith Georgia
    Big-man CB Derwin James Florida State
    Big-man CB Minkah Fitzpatrick Alabama
    S DeShon Elliott Texas

    1st Round

    QB Baker Mayfield Oklahoma
    QB Josh Rosen UCLA
    RB Saquon Barkley Penn State
    OT Connor Williams Texas
    OG Quenton Nelson Notre Dame
    C James Daniels Iowa
    DT Harrison Phillips Stanford
    Pass-rush OLB Marcus Davenport University of Texas San Antonio
    Stand-up LB Tremaine Edmunds Virginia Tech
    Stand-up LB Leighton Vander Esch Boise State

    1st/2nd Round

    RB Derrius Guice Louisiana State
    OT Jamarco Jones Ohio State
    OG Isaiah Wynn Georgia
    DT Taven Bryan Florida
    Pass-rush OLB Olasunkanmi Adeniyi Toledo
    Pass-rush OLB Dorance Armstrong Kansas
    Pass-rush OLB Josh Sweat Florida State
    Pass-rush OLB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo Oklahoma
    Stand-up LB Malik Jefferson Texas
    Big-man CB Carlton Davis Auburn
    Big-zone CB Josh Jackson Iowa
    Big-zone CB Quenton Meeks Stanford
    Small-man CB Jaire Alexander Louisville
    S Jeremy Reaves South Alabama
    S Justin Reid Stanford

    2nd Round

    RB Rashaad Penny San Diego State
    WR Courtland Sutton Southern Methodist
    OT Orlando Brown Oklahoma
    OT Chukwuma Okorafor Western Michigan
    Pass-rush OLB Uchenna Nwosu Southern California
    Stand-up LB Christian Sam Arizona State
    Big-zone CB Kameron Kelly San Diego State

    2nd/3rd Round

    QB Lamar Jackson Louisville
    RB John Kelly Tennessee
    RB Ronald Jones II Southern California
    WR Michael Gallup Colorado State
    WR DJ Moore Maryland
    OT Tyrell Crosby Oregon
    OG Will Hernandez University of Texas El Paso
    C Frank Ragnow Arkansas
    C Mason Cole Michigan
    DT Trenton Thompson Georgia
    DT Maurice Hurst Michigan
    DT Derrick Nnadi Florida State
    Pass-rush OLB Arden Key Louisiana State
    Pass-rush OLB Rashaan Evans Alabama
    Stand-up LB Frank Ginda San Jose State
    Big-man CB Isaiah Oliver Colorado
    Small-man CB Darius Phillips Western Michigan
    Small-man CB Mike Hughes Central Florida
    Small-man CB Denzel Ward Ohio State
    Small-man CB DJ Reed Kansas State
    Small-man CB Duke Dawson Florida
    Small-man CB MJ Stewart North Carolina
    S Tarvarius Moore Southern Mississippi
    S Armani Watts Texas A&M

    3rd Round

    QB Mason Rudolph Oklahoma State
    RB Kerryon Johnson Auburn
    RB Nick Chubb Georgia
    RB Royce Freeman Oregon
    WR DJ Chark Louisiana State
    WR James Washington Oklahoma State
    WR Christian Kirk Texas A&M
    WR Steve Ishmael Syracuse
    WR Cedric Wilson Boise State
    WR Calvin Ridley Alabama
    WR Anthony Miller Memphis
    WR Keke Coutee Texas Tech
    WR Dante Pettis Washington
    WR Richie James Middle Tennessee
    OT Mike McGlinchey Notre Dame
    OT Martinas Rankin Mississippi State
    OG Braden Smith Auburn
    C Billy Price Ohio State
    DE Justin Lawler Southern Methodist
    DT Da'Ron Payne Alabama
    5-tech Rasheem Green USC
    5-tech Andrew Brown Virginia
    Pass-rush OLB Jeff Holland Auburn
    Stand-up LB DeMarquis Gates Mississippi
    Big-man CB Jordan Thomas Oklahoma
    Big-zone CB Jamar Summers Connecticut
    Small-man CB Jalen Davis Utah State
    Small-man CB Arrion Springs Oregon
    S Jordan Whitehead Pittsburgh

    3rd/4th Round

    RB Mark Walton Miami
    RB Josh Adams Notre Dame
    RB Sony Michel Georgia
    DE Jeremy Smith Tulsa
    DE Duke Ejiofor Wake Forest
    DT Steven Richardson Minnesota
    DT Vita Vea Washington
    DT Folorunso Fatukasi Connecticut
    DT Tim Settle Virginia Tech
    5-tech Breeland Speaks
    Pass-rush OLB Da'Sean Downey Massachusetts
    Pass-rush OLB Hercules Mata'afa Washington State
    Stand-up LB Parris Bennett Syracuse
    Stand-up LB Darius Leonard South Carolina State
    Stand-up LB Fred Warner Brigham Young
    Big-man CB Tarvarus McFadden Florida State
    Big-zone CB Jamarcus King South Carolina
    Small-man CB Dante Jackson Louisiana State
    Small-zone CB Deatrich Nichols South Florida
    Small-zone CB Curtis Mikell Southern Mississippi
    Small-zone CB Amari Coleman Central Michigan
    Small-zone CB Parry Nickerson Tulane
    Small-zone CB Rashard Fant Indiana
    S Ronnie Harrison Alabama
    S Quin Blanding Virginia
    S Kyzir White West Virginia
    S Sean Chandler Temple
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 25, 2018
    Martel13, Buddy, HeavenCent and 16 others like this.
  2. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,642
    Likes Received:
    1,887
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Anthony Johnson and Jaylon Ferguson elected to return for their Senior year.

    Johnson is another Rock Hill, SC kid same as Mason Rudolph and they're familiar with each other from their high school days.

    Nice work J. Congrats on winning an overdue draft award. Well deserved.
     
  3. Danny

    Danny Finheaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2003
    Messages:
    22,334
    Likes Received:
    7,158
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Bro, you seem pretty organized to me. Thanks for the nice effort. One question. Is that where you see players going or do you think teams see it that way. Big name that jumped at me was Ridley who I see in every mock going in the first round but you got him in the 3rd?

    Ozzy rules!!
     
    Ray R and j-off-her-doll like this.
  4. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Messages:
    15,925
    Likes Received:
    2,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Thank you, Slimm! I really appreciate that, and thanks for catching Johnson and Ferguson (edited them out). I didn't know that about Johnson and Rudolph, and they could have been a cool pairing at Oklahoma State. Johnson is almost and in-between of Washington and Ateman.
     
  5. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Jan 2008
    Messages:
    10,371
    Likes Received:
    2,793
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Great list J. Can't say I agree with all of it but gotta respect the work. I'm coming around on Davenport as a top 20 pick although I think his value comes later.

    No Skai Moore, Jerome Baker, or Sam Hubbard in the top 4 rounds?
     
    j-off-her-doll likes this.
  6. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Jan 2008
    Messages:
    10,371
    Likes Received:
    2,793
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Iman Marshall is staying for his senior year too as far as I know.
     
    j-off-her-doll likes this.
  7. NEPA Phin Phan

    NEPA Phin Phan Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2011
    Messages:
    75
    Likes Received:
    18
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Where is Mel Kiper's #1 pick, Josh Allen?
     
    j-off-her-doll likes this.
  8. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,642
    Likes Received:
    1,887
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yeah Marshall went back to school too.
     
    j-off-her-doll and BobDole like this.
  9. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Messages:
    15,925
    Likes Received:
    2,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Thanks Danny! This is how I value the players/where I would be content drafting the players. I've never been as interested in guessing what the league will do. I do think it's interesting, and I enjoy reading from people who specialize in predicting which players will go where, but I have more fun trying to decide what a player is and what he will be - as well as what circumstances will help/hurt his potential.

    With Ridley, I see a versatile, starting WR, who can give you the occasional big game in the NFL. I've seen people rank him in the top 10 then say he'll make an excellent complimentary WR. On what planet does that make sense? Last year, we saw JuJu Smith-Schuster go late-2nd and Chris Godwin go in the 3rd. Without any hindsight (and Godwin hasn't really taken off yet), both are much better WR prospects than Ridley (believe Slimm had late-1st on both, and I believe I had both top 50). I wouldn't knock anyone for drafting him in the 2nd, but when I think of impact vs expense, it feels like a situation where, best-case, you break even. If a team drafts him in the 1st, I don't see a scenario where they recoup that value. If the players are equal, I'd favor QB, OT, OG, DE, LB, CB, or S (not SS) over WR - RB, as well. It's why you see only Sutton, Gallup, and Moore with any piece of the 2nd. The big point, for me, is that there's not a lot separating the guys I view in the 3rd, so, if there was not such a large grouping (and there always is), and if WR was a premium position like DE or CB, I'd be more in line with the people that like him in the 1st or 2nd.
     
    NBP81 and Danny like this.
  10. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Messages:
    15,925
    Likes Received:
    2,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    ****, don't know how I missed that one. Too late to edit x_x Appreciate the heads up, Sir!
     
    BobDole likes this.
  11. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Messages:
    15,925
    Likes Received:
    2,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Thanks BobDole! I LOVED Skai Moore, and I was sure he'd be a 2nd at worst, but after the injuries, and with him being older, I feel like he's a 5th-7th. I'm rooting for him to return to form, but that seems unlikely, so his ceiling is a little lower, and I worry about him holding up.

    I'm not high on Baker or Hubbard. Baker looks very fast, but I don't think he sees things well at all, and he didn't make a lot of plays at Ohio State. Hubbard might look better as a 5-tech. Depending on how he measures/tests, I'd be curious about that fit. As a 4-3 DE, I don't see him giving NFL OT's much of a hard time. He's strong, and he doesn't get pushed around, but I have a hard time projecting him as someone who affects the QB enough for you to want to start him.
     
    BobDole likes this.
  12. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,642
    Likes Received:
    1,887
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The combine is always particularly important for pass rushers, RB's and DB's.

    Let me ask you this, what players do you believe this combine is going to be most important for? And what specific players are you most interested in seeing how they test?

    For me, this combine is most important for a kid like Nick Chubb. How he tests in order to demonstrate how far he's come back from a devastating knee injury is going to be vitally important....along with his medical evaluation in terms of structural integrity of the knee.

    I still believe a 100% healthy Nick Chubb is the best Senior back in this class. My only question has always been, exactly how close to 100% back is he? To me he looked about 75% this year, but was still incredible.

    Chubb's balance and power in the lower half are still rare. Just doesn't quite have the explosion or speed he had prior to the injury. Just a wonderful kid too. One of my favorite players in college football his entire career.
     
  13. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Messages:
    15,925
    Likes Received:
    2,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    With RB's and WR's, I want to see them run fast, show burst in the 10 and jumps, or show really good agility for their size. I think it's a little similar for LB, but raw speed, relative to their size, is more important for them, with the way teams spread the field.

    I agree about pass rushers and DB's. Pass rushers and CB's are typically the best athletes on the field. With Safeties, I think it's more similar to RB and WR. They need to be decent all-around athletes and to have a good trait or two, but anticipation and instincts seem to go further. Anything over 4.60 is a red flag/knock, though.

    Chubb is a great call. I agree that if he shows burst like he did in high school, top-50 is on the table. I always loved his game. I made a list this morning, and I didn't focus as much on RB or WR, but of those positions, I also really want to see Penny, Freeman, Kelly, Johnson, Walton (though, I won't hold a bad performance against him), and Adams at RB, and I want to see Sutton, Gallup, Moore, Ishmael, and Wilson at WR. I left of Ronald Jones II, because I feel confident that he'll test well. This is the list I made earlier (not concerned with Bradley Chubb):

    OT

    Connor Williams
    Jamarco Jones
    Orlando Brown
    Chukwuma Okorafor

    Pass-rush OLB

    Harold Landry
    Marcus Davenport
    Olasunkanmi Adeniyi
    Dorance Armstrong
    Josh Sweat
    Obo Okoronkwo
    Uchenna Nwosu

    Stand-up LB

    Roquan Smith
    Tremaine Edmunds
    Leighton Vander Esch
    Malik Jefferson
    Christian Sam

    CB

    Derwin James
    Minkah Fitzpatrick
    Carlton Davis
    Isaiah Oliver
    Jordan Thomas
    Jaire Alexander
    Darius Phillips
    Mike Hughes
    Denzel Ward
    DJ Reed
    Duke Dawson
    MJ Stewart
    Jalen Davis
    Arrion Springs
     
    TedSlimmJr likes this.
  14. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Jan 2008
    Messages:
    10,371
    Likes Received:
    2,793
    Trophy Points:
    113

    Jewell, Kiser, and Sam all need to run well and show fluidity to avoid the '2 down' label. Landry needs to blow it up to make people forget about last season. Little guys like Baker and O'Daniel need to run real well to justify their size and show teams they have the speed to cover. And I'd like to be proven wrong about Vander Esch because I'm just underwhelmed overall.

    Josh Jackson and Carlton Davis - 2 players I'm pretty confident in succeeding at the next level - would be immensely helped by strong combine performances. I don't see either getting out of the 2nd but the top 25 is looking pretty solid with good showings.

    The risers have to be looked at pretty closely too. Davenport and Edmunds (who I've always liked but thought he'd be there in the 2nd or maybe even 3rd) fit the bill this year for me. I gotta say I did not love Jordan Willis as a prospect but his combine blew me away. That kind of thing is always intriguing.

    Will be interesting to see how Vea moves at that size. Looks pretty nimble for a big man. People are all over the place on him.

    I'm with J that I also love Elliott. I almost want him to stumble a little so he can fall to us in the 2nd ... will make up for the Saints grabbing Williams last year before we had the chance.

    Measurements are pretty big too. ND listed Te'o at like 6'3" 255. Yeah, not so much.
     
    TedSlimmJr and j-off-her-doll like this.
  15. Danny

    Danny Finheaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2003
    Messages:
    22,334
    Likes Received:
    7,158
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Wow. You really know your stuff man. I enjoy reading what you post. I've said this before. There are people on this board that could work for an NFL team and you'd get my vote

    Ozzy rules!!
     
    j-off-her-doll likes this.

Share This Page