Thin margins
The draft is kind of like politics. While everyone argues and calls each other idiots, we tend to agree much more often than we disagree. We just take for granted the players/areas in which we agree. So, we look for little differences that will transform into big differences - or at least big enough differences to put you ahead. Of course, this exposes some really ugly aspects of human nature, but that's for another discussion.
This will attempt to determine 1) which early-round players will be drafted too soon and 2) which players will fall further than they should - providing that value we hope to scoop. I also make note of potential late-round values. If you don't see a player listed here, it means that I think he'll be drafted in (more-or-less) the correct range. After this, I'll be working on some Dolphins-specific content. Teams should hit on most of their early picks, and that hasn't been the case for Miami, so you can think of this exercise as a warm up before we get to Miami's needs and which players will make the biggest impact.
QB - As of April 7th, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen appear to be the top QB's in the eyes of the NFL. Darnold deserves his spot among the top 2, and Josh Allen is a physical marvel, but he lacks the grace, instincts, and poise required of a top-flight QB. These are has-it-or-doesn't traits. You can only develop them so much.
With Allen going higher than he should, and Rosen likely going 3rd, Baker Mayfield presents excellent value. In addition to high-end accuracy, and underrated arm strength, Mayfield plays with the grace, poise, and instincts of a franchise QB. He and Darnold are the guys you want. Mayfield is the ray of light for QB-needy teams out of Darnold's range.
For late-round values, Logan Woodside reminds me of a less-wild Case Keenum, and don't sleep on JT Barrett, who is kind of a poor-man's Dak Prescott.
RB - It looks like Derrius Guice could go in the first twenty picks, and Ronald Jones II and Sony Michel will likely go in the first fifty picks. While I like aspects of each, Guice and Jones II were invisible in the passing game (Guice less than half as productive as Fournette as receiver). Michel has only ever been a complimentary RB. Guice belongs in the top-50 range, but the 1st is rich, and teams should not be in a hurry to draft Jones II or Michel. They're nice pieces to add to your offense, but their ceilings are not as advertised.
As a result, Rashaad Penny, John Kelly, and Royce Freeman may get pushed into the 3rd/4th range (if not later), and Penny is Guice's biggest rival for best pure runner in the class. His combination of vision, burst, and balance through contact are exactly what you want. He's also a dangerous receiver out of the backfield with breakaway speed. Kelly is one of the 3 or 4 best receiving backs in the class, in addition to runner with excellent power and balance. And, Freeman is a guy that does it all - big body, good speed, burst, adequate vision, and he catches the ball well.
Late-round values - Akrum Wadley, Ito Smith, Phillip Lindsay
WR - This Calvin Ridley thing is real, isn't it? Top 20 looks likely, and Christian Kirk figures to go in the 1st, as well. This is much too soon for both players, who project better to late Day 2 - as solid pieces, rather than focal points of an offense. James Washington and Dante Pettis will also go sooner than they should - likely top-50 picks, but Washington will go closer to his appropriate value, and Pettis is one of the best punt-return prospects in recent memory, so it's understandable that his value would get a bump.
Look for value in DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and Cedric Wilson. Moore and Sutton are the WR's who should go in the top 20. Moore is like a faster, more-explosive Anquan Boldin with the ball in his hands, and he gets in and out of his breaks like Stefon Diggs. Moore can do anything he wants on the football field. Sutton is a huge WR with unreal agility. You don't see guys this big move so effortlessly. He's not a burner, but he's fast enough, and, like Moore, he can win a variety of ways. Gallup runs crisp routes, wins at the catch point, and is excellent after the catch. He's not especially fast, but he's very slick, and he tracks the deep ball at a high level. DJ Chark is - by a mile - the best deep threat in the class. If Ted Ginn Jr. were bigger, stronger, faster, and better, he'd look like DJ Chark. They move very similarly, chewing up space at unreal rates, and Chark has the physique to capitalize. But, as a pure deep threat, he's about as good as it gets. Also think of guys like Mike Wallace and William Fuller, but Chark is smoother and longer than Wallace and bigger than Fuller. Despite 4.55 speed, Cedrick Wilson is another WR who can win anywhere on the field. He runs smooth routes, makes tough catches over the middle, and he wins deep. These all figure to be early-impact WR's, with the ability to develop into high-volume + high-efficiency players.
Late-round values - Steve Ishmael, Keke Coutee, TreQuan Smith, Allen Lazard, Korey Robertson
TE - Hayden Hurst may be the first TE off the board, and he will go in the first 50 picks - what the what!? He's a nice player. It's easy to like his tape, but despite solid speed, he's a below-average athlete, with a below-average frame, and he'll be 25 years old this year. Have some perspective, NFL. Will Dissly could go Day 2, and it doesn't make a lick of sense. If you're drafting a TE in the first three rounds, you're hoping that he can develop into a legitimate threat as a receiver. You don't draft blocking TE's that high, and you don't project Dissly to grow into a quality receiver.
Because the NFL appears to favor Hurst and Goedert, Mike Gesicki could fall to the 2nd, where he'd be a huge value. At a position where athleticism is king, Gesicki is about as athletic as it gets. His game is raw, but with his speed, burst, and agility, you have what you need to work with (and then some). Tyler Conklin likely slips to Day 3, where he presents rare value in a thin 2018 TE group. He's excellent at positioning his body to make the catch, and he excels at winning contested balls. Not fast, but he's a good all-around athlete, and he can develop into a consistent receiver in the NFL. He reminds me of Zach Miller (from Arizona State).
Late-round values - N/A
OT - Mike McGlinchey appears to be headed for the 1st Round (top 20?), and his game has lapses and holes, and he doesn't show the upside to make you feel better about the needed development. He has a shot to be a quality starter, but he carries some bust risk, and he's not a guy who will develop into a top-flight OT.
Not a great class for OT, but Connor Williams has the tools to make it work. He's still very young, a good athlete, and his 2016 was much better than his injury-altered 2017. Because McGlinchey likely goes first, Williams could fall a little and present a solid value in the late-1st/early-2nd. 2016 Williams was better than 2017 McGlinchey, and Williams has youth and athleticism on his side, as well.
Late-round values: N/A
C - Billy Price looks like he'll go before Frank Ragnow, and that doesn't make any sense. Ragnow is more consistent, younger, and more athletic. He's also entering the NFL in better health.
Late-round values: Brian Allen
The draft is kind of like politics. While everyone argues and calls each other idiots, we tend to agree much more often than we disagree. We just take for granted the players/areas in which we agree. So, we look for little differences that will transform into big differences - or at least big enough differences to put you ahead. Of course, this exposes some really ugly aspects of human nature, but that's for another discussion.
This will attempt to determine 1) which early-round players will be drafted too soon and 2) which players will fall further than they should - providing that value we hope to scoop. I also make note of potential late-round values. If you don't see a player listed here, it means that I think he'll be drafted in (more-or-less) the correct range. After this, I'll be working on some Dolphins-specific content. Teams should hit on most of their early picks, and that hasn't been the case for Miami, so you can think of this exercise as a warm up before we get to Miami's needs and which players will make the biggest impact.
QB - As of April 7th, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen appear to be the top QB's in the eyes of the NFL. Darnold deserves his spot among the top 2, and Josh Allen is a physical marvel, but he lacks the grace, instincts, and poise required of a top-flight QB. These are has-it-or-doesn't traits. You can only develop them so much.
With Allen going higher than he should, and Rosen likely going 3rd, Baker Mayfield presents excellent value. In addition to high-end accuracy, and underrated arm strength, Mayfield plays with the grace, poise, and instincts of a franchise QB. He and Darnold are the guys you want. Mayfield is the ray of light for QB-needy teams out of Darnold's range.
For late-round values, Logan Woodside reminds me of a less-wild Case Keenum, and don't sleep on JT Barrett, who is kind of a poor-man's Dak Prescott.
RB - It looks like Derrius Guice could go in the first twenty picks, and Ronald Jones II and Sony Michel will likely go in the first fifty picks. While I like aspects of each, Guice and Jones II were invisible in the passing game (Guice less than half as productive as Fournette as receiver). Michel has only ever been a complimentary RB. Guice belongs in the top-50 range, but the 1st is rich, and teams should not be in a hurry to draft Jones II or Michel. They're nice pieces to add to your offense, but their ceilings are not as advertised.
As a result, Rashaad Penny, John Kelly, and Royce Freeman may get pushed into the 3rd/4th range (if not later), and Penny is Guice's biggest rival for best pure runner in the class. His combination of vision, burst, and balance through contact are exactly what you want. He's also a dangerous receiver out of the backfield with breakaway speed. Kelly is one of the 3 or 4 best receiving backs in the class, in addition to runner with excellent power and balance. And, Freeman is a guy that does it all - big body, good speed, burst, adequate vision, and he catches the ball well.
Late-round values - Akrum Wadley, Ito Smith, Phillip Lindsay
WR - This Calvin Ridley thing is real, isn't it? Top 20 looks likely, and Christian Kirk figures to go in the 1st, as well. This is much too soon for both players, who project better to late Day 2 - as solid pieces, rather than focal points of an offense. James Washington and Dante Pettis will also go sooner than they should - likely top-50 picks, but Washington will go closer to his appropriate value, and Pettis is one of the best punt-return prospects in recent memory, so it's understandable that his value would get a bump.
Look for value in DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and Cedric Wilson. Moore and Sutton are the WR's who should go in the top 20. Moore is like a faster, more-explosive Anquan Boldin with the ball in his hands, and he gets in and out of his breaks like Stefon Diggs. Moore can do anything he wants on the football field. Sutton is a huge WR with unreal agility. You don't see guys this big move so effortlessly. He's not a burner, but he's fast enough, and, like Moore, he can win a variety of ways. Gallup runs crisp routes, wins at the catch point, and is excellent after the catch. He's not especially fast, but he's very slick, and he tracks the deep ball at a high level. DJ Chark is - by a mile - the best deep threat in the class. If Ted Ginn Jr. were bigger, stronger, faster, and better, he'd look like DJ Chark. They move very similarly, chewing up space at unreal rates, and Chark has the physique to capitalize. But, as a pure deep threat, he's about as good as it gets. Also think of guys like Mike Wallace and William Fuller, but Chark is smoother and longer than Wallace and bigger than Fuller. Despite 4.55 speed, Cedrick Wilson is another WR who can win anywhere on the field. He runs smooth routes, makes tough catches over the middle, and he wins deep. These all figure to be early-impact WR's, with the ability to develop into high-volume + high-efficiency players.
Late-round values - Steve Ishmael, Keke Coutee, TreQuan Smith, Allen Lazard, Korey Robertson
TE - Hayden Hurst may be the first TE off the board, and he will go in the first 50 picks - what the what!? He's a nice player. It's easy to like his tape, but despite solid speed, he's a below-average athlete, with a below-average frame, and he'll be 25 years old this year. Have some perspective, NFL. Will Dissly could go Day 2, and it doesn't make a lick of sense. If you're drafting a TE in the first three rounds, you're hoping that he can develop into a legitimate threat as a receiver. You don't draft blocking TE's that high, and you don't project Dissly to grow into a quality receiver.
Because the NFL appears to favor Hurst and Goedert, Mike Gesicki could fall to the 2nd, where he'd be a huge value. At a position where athleticism is king, Gesicki is about as athletic as it gets. His game is raw, but with his speed, burst, and agility, you have what you need to work with (and then some). Tyler Conklin likely slips to Day 3, where he presents rare value in a thin 2018 TE group. He's excellent at positioning his body to make the catch, and he excels at winning contested balls. Not fast, but he's a good all-around athlete, and he can develop into a consistent receiver in the NFL. He reminds me of Zach Miller (from Arizona State).
Late-round values - N/A
OT - Mike McGlinchey appears to be headed for the 1st Round (top 20?), and his game has lapses and holes, and he doesn't show the upside to make you feel better about the needed development. He has a shot to be a quality starter, but he carries some bust risk, and he's not a guy who will develop into a top-flight OT.
Not a great class for OT, but Connor Williams has the tools to make it work. He's still very young, a good athlete, and his 2016 was much better than his injury-altered 2017. Because McGlinchey likely goes first, Williams could fall a little and present a solid value in the late-1st/early-2nd. 2016 Williams was better than 2017 McGlinchey, and Williams has youth and athleticism on his side, as well.
Late-round values: N/A
C - Billy Price looks like he'll go before Frank Ragnow, and that doesn't make any sense. Ragnow is more consistent, younger, and more athletic. He's also entering the NFL in better health.
Late-round values: Brian Allen
