Rank Tannehill Among Young QB's? | Page 16 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Rank Tannehill Among Young QB's?

No. You are not getting it. The fluctuation is also caused by other factors. A jump in 30 points from one season to the next by Brady was directly attributable to the changes in the surrounding talent.

After his rookie year, Manning had only three seasons where his QB rating fluctuated significantly (2001, 2004 and 2013). In 2001 he had a slight increase in INTs and in 2004 and 2013 he had big years for TDs. All of the rest of the seasons his rating only fluctuated by
17 points and usually fewer than 10 points between two seasons. Why? Because the talent that surrounded him was remarkably consistent. While in his prime, Marvin Harrison only played fewer than 15 games once. Reggie Wayne played 11 consecutive years of 16 games per season. Edgerin James missed 16 games in 7 years. 10 of those were in 2001 (which just happens to coincide with the worst year for QB rating other than his rookie year.

In all of his seasons, the rest of Mannings stats were remarkably consistent. Yards, completion %, YPA all very consistent. Other than the blips mentioned above, even his TDs and INTs are very consistent. He also just happened to play 8 seasons with Dallas Clark, 11 seasons with Marvin Harrison, 12 seasons with Reggie Wayne, and 7 seasons with Edgerrin James.

And a whole new team. Just lucky I suppose. Lucked into a great team in Indy that coincidentally went to crap the year he was injured then coincidentally again lucked into a great Broncos team that was coincidentally bad just before he arrived. And I like how you cherry pick certain years to show he only fluctuated 17 points, meanwhile Tom Brady's average is 95.7, which is only 8.4 points from what he did in 2013.

I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that certain Dolphin fans would be so resistant to the idea that this stat might be meaningful seeing as only one Dolphin player ever posted a season with 100+ rating, and that happened 30 years ago.
 
With regard to roy_miami's argument, I think it's sound, and I don't view his post as arguing against the idea that the team plays a role in QB rating. I've argued from a similar stance in the past. QB's with ratings that fluctuate from 90-100+ play efficient football. Perhaps they have other faults like making their mistakes at inopportune times (Tony Romo), but you're talking about guys who generally play the game at a high level. In Russell Wilson's case, he put up back-to-back seasons with a QBR at a little over 100 - with YPA over 8.0 in each of those seasons. Wilson had a brilliant D and a strong running game (helped by Wilson's mobility, which is 100% sustainable given the way he protects himself) to lean on, and that did help his efficiency, but he also had a poor O-line last season, and one of the worst WR groups in the NFL (taking into account Harvin's injury). Wilson's offense (O-line, RB's, TE's, WR's) was just as bad as Brady's last season - if not worse; at least Brady had a strong O-line.

Regardless of a QB's supporting cast, he has to play GREAT football to be at that 100 QBR mark. Save for blind fanboying, I don't understand the mindset that would even begin to compare a QB with less than 7 YPA with around an 80 QBR to Wilson. You can say he has the tools to get there, but Tannehill clearly isn't there yet. I'm pretty sure that everyone posting on this thread - save for junc - wants to see Tannehill get there. But as I've said, it doesn't make sense to compare a player who might play at a higher level with more help to a guy who has established himself as a upper-echelon QB.

BTW, who here would trade our group of WR's from last season for Seattle's 2013 group - minus Percy Harvin?

I can't emphasize enough how historic Wilson's first two seasons have been. Yes, he plays on a great team, but he's a great player on that great team. Pete Carroll is no dummy. Seattle is setting a standard for the way that NFL teams acquire and develop talent. If he thought he could find another QB to do what Wilson's doing, they wouldn't pay him what they're going to end up paying him. He'd just find another QB and continue to sink his money into other areas.
 
And a whole new team. Just lucky I suppose. Lucked into a great team in Indy that coincidentally went to crap the year he was injured then coincidentally again lucked into a great Broncos team that was coincidentally bad just before he arrived. And I like how you cherry pick certain years to show he only fluctuated 17 points, meanwhile Tom Brady's average is 95.7, which is only 8.4 points from what he did in 2013.

I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that certain Dolphin fans would be so resistant to the idea that this stat might be meaningful seeing as only one Dolphin player ever posted a season with 100+ rating, and that happened 30 years ago.

Who said the stat isn't meaningful?

I'm not really sure what point you are trying to make. If you want to believe that the QB rating is solely a measure of the QB's play, fine, go ahead. Come up with some other reason for a 30 point fluctuation from one season to the next. Clearly Brady's own abilities fluctuate wildly from year to year :rolleyes2:. If the jump in Brady's rating from 2006 to 2007 was not largely influenced by the improved players at the WR position, what in your opinion was the cause? I don't think it is at all critical of a QB to say that when surrounded by mediocre talent, a QB rating of 87 is great and when surrounded by elite talent a rating of 117 is great.

Rergarding Indy and Denver's dramatic difference in performance with and without Manning, did you stop to consider who Manning was replaced with and who he replaced? In Indy, his successors were Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter!!!!! In Denver, he replaced Tim Tebow. Christ, could there be any bigger talent gaps between Manning and those guys? You conveniently gloss over the fact that when the great Orlovsky-Painter duo was replaced by a rookie QB, Indy's record was one win BETTER than Manning's last season in Indy. I think Peyton Manning is the second best QB of all time. I also believe that his performance is affected by the quality of his teammates. To ignore that is completely illogical.

It is people like you that are the homers. You actually want to believe that the Dolphins are a QB away from being a top team. I believe the team has been hampered by problems in many areas, including OL, coaching, talent at the skill positions, AND a young QB. I don't have concerns about Tannehill's QB rating of 81 any more than Pats fans should be concerned about Brady's rating of 87. Both ratings are lower than they would be with better talent around the QB. In Miami's case the biggest issue was the OL. In NE, it was the receivers.

Honestly, I'm not sure why this difficult to understand.
 
Save for blind fanboying, I don't understand the mindset that would even begin to compare a QB with less than 7 YPA with around an 80 QBR to Wilson.

Really? So, all the people claiming Andrew Luck is better than Russell Wilson are fanboys? NFL analysts, Colts fans, Dolphins fans, all fanboys?
 
Really? So, all the people claiming Andrew Luck is better than Russell Wilson are fanboys? NFL analysts, Colts fans, Dolphins fans, all fanboys?

You do this a lot. Ignore the bulk of a post to find a point you think you can attack. At this point, Wilson is a better QB than Luck, but Luck has a history of success - going back to Stanford, and his timely play has put the Colts in the playoffs in both of his seasons and helped them win a playoff game. I've already addressed this in an earlier post when interacting with Awsi. It'd be difficult to choose Wilson over Luck long-term, but Wilson has played better football to date.
 
You do this a lot. Ignore the bulk of a post to find a point you think you can attack. At this point, Wilson is a better QB than Luck, but Luck has a history of success - going back to Stanford, and his timely play has put the Colts in the playoffs in both of his seasons and helped them win a playoff game. I've already addressed this in an earlier post when interacting with Awsi. It'd be difficult to choose Wilson over Luck long-term, but Wilson has played better football to date.

Actually the Tannehaters twist their arguments a lot. Your claim was quite simple.

I don't understand the mindset that would even begin to compare a QB with less than 7 YPA with around an 80 QBR to Wilson.

The problem is that you want to apply that statement only to Tannehill. When called on it, the typical response is to bring up some other crap.

I don't need to bend and twist my arguments around. I maintain a consistent viewpoint regardless of the player being discussed. I have no problem putting Luck above Wilson because I haven't made the ridiculous claim that you made. Every Tannehater on this site that bashes Tannehill for his "average" numbers, makes excuses for Luck, and RGIII in 2013.
 
Ultimately, here's the thing. I'm fine with people having the opinion that Wilson and many other young QBs are better than Tannehill. I'm just not fine with two things:

1. The claim that people (like me) that rank Tannehill higher than some other QBs are simply homers. Those opinions are (a) backed up with real observations and (b) held by some people that are not Dolphins fans.

2. The use of bogus or inconsistent arguments to attempt to shoot down belief in Tannehill.

I didn't respond to a single post in this thread that simply ranked Tannehill near the bottom of the list of young QBs. All of my responses were directed at posts that either ignored issues with other QBs for things that they refuse to ignore with Tannehill (injuries, supporting cast, mediocre numbers, etc) or made claims that picking Tannehill just could not be supported. One claim was that there is no measure where Tannehill ranks better than Kaep (easily refuted) and another that claimed there was no measure that would put Tannehill over Newton (how about W-L record in their first two season?).

J-off-her-doll's statement about YPA and QBR followed immediately by some twisted backtrack for Luck perfectly encapsulates the two things that tick me off. So, thanks for that.
 
PFF, in their signature stats, puts out a QB rating along the same guidelines as NFL. However, they considered drops, throw aways, spikes, and total yards in the air. With those few changes, they have RT at #18 as opposed to the NFL at #21. This has nothing to do with their grading and ranks, which are totally separate.

even w/ that you can't properly evaluate. drops are subjective, they don't take into account talent around them, OLs, etc...

Ryan had decent #s, he didn't play anywhere near as well as those #s for the majority of the season.
 
Who said the stat isn't meaningful?



Rergarding Indy and Denver's dramatic difference in performance with and without Manning, did you stop to consider who Manning was replaced with and who he replaced? In Indy, his successors were Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter!!!!! In Denver, he replaced Tim Tebow. Christ, could there be any bigger talent gaps between Manning and those guys? You conveniently gloss over the fact that when the great Orlovsky-Painter duo was replaced by a rookie QB, Indy's record was one win BETTER than Manning's last season in Indy. I think Peyton Manning is the second best QB of all time. I also believe that his performance is affected by the quality of his teammates. To ignore that is completely illogical.

This actually makes my point. The passer rating increases and drops coincided exactly with Manning arriving/departing, meaning the stat is greatly influenced by the QB play. The way Manning played in 2013 I believe he would have had a good to great passer rating on any team in the league regardless of that teams circumstances, at least 90+ on every team in the league and probably 100+ on the Dolphins.

As far as Luck goes the passer rating stat is just one tool, and for me an 80ish passer rating doesn't mean anything one way or the other. But just like a 87+ passer rating means "he's probably quarterbacking pretty good," so does winning 11 games.

It is people like you that are the homers. You actually want to believe that the Dolphins are a QB away from being a top team. I believe the team has been hampered by problems in many areas, including OL, coaching, talent at the skill positions, AND a young QB. I don't have concerns about Tannehill's QB rating of 81 any more than Pats fans should be concerned about Brady's rating of 87. Both ratings are lower than they would be with better talent around the QB. In Miami's case the biggest issue was the OL. In NE, it was the receivers.

Honestly, I'm not sure why this difficult to understand.

I believe any of the top QBs in the league would have won 10-12 games on our team the way it was. Your problem is you think that statement is a slight against Tannehill but I actually do understand Tannehill is a second year player and it would be foolish to expect him to play at an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning level. I'm just dishing out truths as I see them but for some reason in your mind you translate "Russell Wilson played great" to "Ryan Tannehill sucks ass." You're the one with the problem.

And for the record the stats are inconclusive so far for me but if Lazor's offense looks for real and Tannehill and a few of our other key players make it through training camp unscathed I will be placing a bet on Miami to win the AFC Championship game at 19-1 odds. And I don't believe I'm one to make foolish bets, with an effective uptempo offense I really believe Miami has a decent shot to go to the SB. So I'm not a "Tannehater," far from it.

Things could not have worked out better for me in 2013, we got rid of Ireland and Sherman while retaining Philbin and the "hot seat" probably reset for Philbin somewhat. I'm not a religious man but I'm hoping it was divine intervention and a sign the future may be bright.
 
This actually makes my point. The passer rating increases and drops coincided exactly with Manning arriving/departing, meaning the stat is greatly influenced by the QB play. The way Manning played in 2013 I believe he would have had a good to great passer rating on any team in the league regardless of that teams circumstances, at least 90+ on every team in the league and probably 100+ on the Dolphins.

Of course it is greatly influenced by QB play but it is not a measure of exclusively the QB play. That is the only point that I was making. I am compelled to make that point because of the repeated claims on this site:

<Tannehater> - Tannehill is only an average QB because his QBR is average. Any attempt to compare him to any other young QB is foolish.
<me> - what about Andrew Luck's QBR?
<Tannehater> - well in HIS case his QBR is not indicative of his play.... blah blah blah


While Manning certainly would have been better than Tannehill, I disagree with your belief that Manning would have had a 100+ QBR on the Dolphins. He has posted a 100+ QBR only 5 out of 15 years. IMO, he had better supporting casts every one of the 10 years that he failed to achieve a 100+ QBR. BTW, he has a 71 QBR in his rookie year.....

As far as Luck goes the passer rating stat is just one tool, and for me an 80ish passer rating doesn't mean anything one way or the other. But just like a 87+ passer rating means "he's probably quarterbacking pretty good," so does winning 11 games.

the difference between 81.7 and 87 is splitting hairs.

I believe any of the top QBs in the league would have won 10-12 games on our team the way it was. Your problem is you think that statement is a slight against Tannehill but I actually do understand Tannehill is a second year player and it would be foolish to expect him to play at an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning level.

By top QBs do you mean Brady, Peyton, Brees, and Rodgers only? If you are talking about the top 4 or 5 QBs, I would agree with you, but any more than that, then no, I wouldn't agree.


I'm just dishing out truths as I see them but for some reason in your mind you translate "Russell Wilson played great" to "Ryan Tannehill sucks ass." You're the one with the problem.

That's not what I think at all. What I disagree with is the twisting of the arguments according to the player they are used for or against. There are numerous examples by the "fans" on this site.

Tannehill should be graded on his YPA and QBR. Not so for Luck.

Tannehill should be graded on the team's record. Not so for Newton.

Tannehill should be graded on the inconsistency of his play. Not so for Wilson.

IMO, Tannehill played under the worst conditions of any QB in the league and was not nearly the worst QB.

And for the record the stats are inconclusive so far for me but if Lazor's offense looks for real and Tannehill and a few of our other key players make it through training camp unscathed I will be placing a bet on Miami to win the AFC Championship game at 19-1 odds. And I don't believe I'm one to make foolish bets, with an effective uptempo offense I really believe Miami has a decent shot to go to the SB. So I'm not a "Tannehater," far from it.

Things could not have worked out better for me in 2013, we got rid of Ireland and Sherman while retaining Philbin and the "hot seat" probably reset for Philbin somewhat. I'm not a religious man but I'm hoping it was divine intervention and a sign the future may be bright.

My biggest concern is the possibility of the team giving up on Tannehill before they have put him in a position to succeed. There is pretty much a consensus that he had one of the league's worst receiving corps in his rookie year and the league's worst OL in his second year. That opinion was supported by the team's personnel moves in the two off seasons.
 
I didn't think it was possible to have the exact same drawn-out debate more than twice in one offseason. And guess what...after all the back-and-forth...no one has changed their opinion!
 
I didn't think it was possible to have the exact same drawn-out debate more than twice in one offseason. And guess what...after all the back-and-forth...no one has changed their opinion!

you must not have been around much, this debate has been going on about 349812857 times, in just this one offseason.
 
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