Saban will use "Value Chart"

CrunchTime

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Trading the pick?
The Dolphins are interested in trading the second pick of the draft,
but a partner could be hard to find. Saban said Miami will adhere
closely to the "value chart" that most teams use on draft day.

According to the chart, a fair trade would have Miami sending the
second pick (2,600 points) to the Vikings for pick No. 7 (1,500)
and No. 18 (900).

The Cowboys (2,100 points) and Chargers (1,860 points) also hold
two first-round picks.

Saban wants it known that he will select a quarterback, despite
a glaring need at running back, if that's the best long-term value.



http://www.palmbeachpost.com/dolphins/content/sports/epaper/2005/04/01/a3c_fins_0401.html


Saban said his priority with the No. 2 overall pick will be to take
the best player available, if the Dolphins don't trade the pick.

''I really feel that when you're picking that high in the draft,
you make some mistakes if you just take need into consideration,'' Saban said. ``Everybody as a coach would like to satisfy some need in the draft that you have, but when you're picking that high, you better pick the player that has the most value to the organization long-term. If we have to pick there, that's what we have to
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sports/football/11282332.htm




There are several members on our MB who ignore the value chart when they suggest one trade or another.

Its there for a reason.It gives teams a basis from which to
start trade talks.

What clues can we gather from these two blurbs.Lets speculate.

1- Saban would like to trade down only if we get equal value

2- If he cant trade down he will consider drafting a QB because
the position represents the best long term value.

3- WR is not one of our most urgent needs.

4- RB position can be addressed at a later pick.

Using these clues who do you think we will draft.?


BTW for those who dont have a draft pick value chart here is the link.

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

Also a link for the draft order.
http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/currentdraftorder.htm
 

Surferosa

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When do I get my decoder ring in the mail?
 

CrunchTime

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The editing feature on this MB is like a box of chocolates.You never know what you are going to get.:tongue:
 

inFINSible

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Saban is trying to sell the rest of the NFL that we're going to take a QB. He's a smart man, he knows that nobody is going to trade up to number two unless they think WE are going to take a QB. There are no other positions worth trading into the top two.

It's a bluff.
 

Y-TownPhinVet

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Thanks for the link to the value chart. :) I've been wanting a copy of that for awhile. I've always wondered how it would work in evaluating trades in Fantasy Football, now I will find out!
 

HysterikiLL

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This is very interesting. The possibility of trading down and looking for a QB would most likely mean Jason Campbell or Charlie Frye in my eyes as they're probably the best candidates in the late first but I really don't like that conception -- Maybe Campbell but a guy like Orlovsky, Greene, Walter in the later rounds would be nice.

Possibly Matt Jones could be a possibility??? Technically that's taking a QB even though the media want him at WR but Saban rates him highly overall.

A lot would really depend on who our trading partner was. If the Chargers - which I've always believed will happen, the 12th is a wholesome spot for a guy like Alex Barron who I love but it seems we've solidified the line now, so I'd look at someone like Shawne Merriman if he was still available or perhaps anybody top 10 who had slipped and would be a steal at 12.

Just my thoughts. Nice post.
 

CrunchTime

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inFINSible said:
Saban is trying to sell the rest of the NFL that we're going to take a QB. He's a smart man, he knows that nobody is going to trade up to number two unless they think WE are going to take a QB. There are no other positions worth trading into the top two.

It's a bluff.
I am sure that is a big part of it.In order to trade down he has to make other teams think we will be taking one of the top two QBs.
 

Awsi Dooger

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I wonder if they vary that chart slightly from year to year

Somehow I doubt it. It would require subjective judgement. But it really should be done, since we know not all drafts are created equal. This year, obviously, there is a relative lack of surefire superstars up front, but much more depth than typical in certain positions. I've been skeptical we will trade down, simply because it would likely require a somewhat lesser payoff, depending how low we dropped.

I tend to use Las Vegas and gambling examples too often here. But it's what I know best. Let me give a somewhat related example: Every week I help put out golf odds for the upcoming PGA tournament. There is no way we could rely on a standard chart to list odds on the favorite or the top choices. If a Tiger or Vijay or Phil or Ernie is playing, then the favorite is in the 3/1 range, perhaps even lower. If NONE of them are in the field, then the favorite might be in the 10/1 range. The odds on the field, i.e. none of the top 30 players in the tournament winning, changes greatly also. The field might be 2/1 or less if none of the top players are entered, but many times that if everyone of significance is playing. The wiseguy gamblers would destroy the sportsbooks if adjustments like that were not made.

It would be interesting to see what Rick Speilman's value chart looked like. Let me guess: any breathing human, preferably third string = $5 million+
 

Celtkin

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inFINSible said:
Saban is trying to sell the rest of the NFL that we're going to take a QB. He's a smart man, he knows that nobody is going to trade up to number two unless they think WE are going to take a QB. There are no other positions worth trading into the top two.

It's a bluff.
Could be but he didn't actually specify the position he considered to be "the player that has the most value to the organization long-term". He didn't actually say "the best player available". That was a smart move because he left it open to interpretation. Teams that want to move up could 'hear' what they fear most...that the player they covet is the player that Miami considers the "best value".
 

inFINSible

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Celtkin said:
Could be but he didn't actually specify the position he considered to be "the player that has the most value to the organization long-term". He didn't actually say "the best player available". That was a smart move because he left it open to interpretation. Teams that want to move up could 'hear' what they fear most...that the player they covet is the player that Miami considers the "best value".
Position wise, there isn't any position, besides QB, that could come off the board 1-2. That's why it's imperative that A) San Fran takes one of the QBs, and B) That somebody, who wants one bad enough, thinks we're going to take the other......otherwise, they make a trade with Cleveland for less compensation than what we want.
 

CrunchTime

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inFINSible said:
Position wise, there isn't any position, besides QB, that could come off the board 1-2. That's why it's imperative that A) San Fran takes one of the QBs, and B) That somebody, who wants one bad enough, thinks we're going to take the other......otherwise, they make a trade with Cleveland for less compensation than what we want.
I agree.For the bluff to work its important that the Niners take one of the top two QBs.Otherwise teams can trade up with the Browns at a lower value.
 

Celtkin

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inFINSible said:
Position wise, there isn't any position, besides QB, that could come off the board 1-2. That's why it's imperative that A) San Fran takes one of the QBs, and B) That somebody, who wants one bad enough, thinks we're going to take the other......otherwise, they make a trade with Cleveland for less compensation than what we want.
I see the logic and I agree. My point is, rather than locking in "a" position, Saban left it open to intrepretation.

For what it's worth, if we can't trade down, I believe the bluff will become a reality. It think Smith would look nice in a Dolphin's uniform. ;)
 
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