Harbaugh should be excited after covering the spread by half a point. I was thrilled for him.
Actually the books had to hate that game. It was -2.5 early in the week then drifted up to -3. Nobody should have lost on either side of that game if they had any line movement instincts at all. There were some joints that risked +3.5 and got burned when it fell 3, including the major offshore site 5 Dimes. I was shocked when they went off 3 up to 3.5. Most spots continued to take 49ers money at -3 but moved the juice to -125 or -130, astutely refusing to move up to -3.5
My YPPA Differential system went 2-1, with wins on the Saints +3 and 49ers -2.5 along with a lopsided loss on Bengals -6.5. No play on Colts/Chiefs.
The aspect I don't appreciate is that the teams I am betting against have good quarterbacks. This weekend I opposed Foles, Rivers and Rodgers. Not fun. When I designed this system and researched it, it was intended to oppose weaker quarterbacks. But many of the teams have lousy pass defense, which equates to weak YPPA Differential. Frankly, I would have preferred to give the points with Cincinnati today against the Dolphins and not the Chargers. Miami had a YPPA Differential of -.6 compared to San Diego at +.4