I wasn't a huge fan of Rosen last year. He had miserable 3rd down numbers at UCLA. I posted the related link several times.
But it doesn't matter what I think. Do the right thing while limiting subjectivity and you'll be amazed how well it will work out in the long run. That's what the Dolphins are doing now. Difficult to believe this is the same franchise that drafted Charles Harris two years ago. Now we've had two astute selections in Minkah Fitzpatrick and Christian Wilkins. Both of those guys were 5 star players in high school and quickly started and starred in college. Josh Rosen is another 5 star recruit who started immediately in college, putting up 7.5 YPA as a true freshman then 8.3 and 8.3 again.
Rosen would be very good value at this point. Do it then see what happens. This is not a 7-year waste. It doesn't prevent anything next year. Besides, our odds at Tua are far lower than anyone dares believe. Even if we have the second pick it would require a massive, massive haul to move up. Don't kid yourself that Tua won't be the first pick, or that anyone else is on his level, like Fromm and his 8.75 hands. This is not complicated. As I mentioned months ago, Mayfield, Murray and Tua have each put up freakish YPA seasons of 11.2 and above. That is separation and makes them the first pick in three consecutive drafts.
I would be less inclined if our pick were within the top 40, instead of 48. That 40 number is the cutoff point I look at every year. That is basically still an extension of the first round, after many teams screw around late in the first round and allow talented players to slide. But once you reach beyond 40 it is pure second round and your success rate drops accordingly. I hate making adjustments based on how the board looks year to year, or the names we fall in love with. Bottom line, if they drop beyond 40 you are increasingly gambling instead of investing. Taking last year's 10th pick with a following 2nd is sharp investing.
Whew. None of this seems to matter now that Daniel Jones is somewhere else. I didn't want any temptation there. That pick is the epitome of doing the wrong thing. Jones was a nothing recruit and never managed above 6.8 YPA at Duke. His junior season was 5.9. Nearly half of his games at Duke were 6.0 or lower...often much lower. That player is classic tape guy sucker material, which is why traditional types like Charlie Casserly and Bucky Brooks and obviously Gettleman loved him, while the analytics guys like commonmanfootball on YouTube wanted no part of him. BTW, I recommend watching that commonmanfootball guy as he reacts to picks he doesn't like and can't believe. He is a Raiders fan and went nuts last night when they took Ferrell that high.
I like the Giants but at that point I didn't care who was taking Jones. I wanted to cleanse the world by getting him off the board before Miami appeared.
Once it reached our choice it reminded me exactly of last year. I thought it would be either Wilkins or Lawrence. Earlier I was desperately rooting for Oliver to fall but that seemed like a pipe dream. Similar to last year with Minkah above Derwin James, in Wilkins we took the safer guy and a high character building block. Wilkins reminds me of a '70s Dolphin. I was very satisfied, while acknowledging that Wilkins can be detoured on occasion, and the bigger framed guy Lawrence might have more upside if everything booms for him, like Derwin James so far.
