Teams Rarely Draft QBs in the 1st Round?

[Shouright]

Lucky has CLEARLY not worked for us, so yes we are stupid for not going the 1st round route.

I agree that it's time to take a QB in the 1st round. But again, that's your topic, not mine.

Answer me these questions:

1. Is QB important?
2. If you dont have one, should you try get one?
3. What is the best round to get one in?

I totally expect you to beat around the bush and act like you didnt imply so and so and didnt mean so and so, but whatever. Your data means nothing. Its just quantity numbers. It says nothing about the quality of teams QB play and nothing of how well run the team is. Well run teams have good QBs and therefore need to draft them less. ****ty teams dont have QBs and make no effort to draft them.

The data only mean that the Dolphins aren't somehow radically different from the norm in the NFL in terms of the selection of QBs in the 1st round, as you hear many people imply they are.

 

[Tunaphish429]

This is pretty interesting, All tho a good point to bring up is that there are only 1 to 3 qb's worth taking in 1st round in a given draft.

I think its def time for Miami to pull the trigger on a qb in the first round...

Even if the value is off slightly. Trade up, trade back do whatever you gotta do.

I do not wanna see them reach like the vikings did.

Also if your drafting a guy in the first round, leave him the **** alone..dont try and change everything about his mechanics..

to me that guy is not ever worth a first rounder.

 

[Shouright]

OK then. For the love of God TELL me why I should give a hundredth of a single damn about how many QBs each team has drafted lately. Please. Prove to me it means something. Show me how it makes sense that we havent attempted since Marino retired.

You shouldn't.

Like I said, I don't blame you if this topic isn't meaningful or important to you.

 

[tylerdolphin]

I agree that it's time to take a QB in the 1st round. But again, that's your topic, not mine.

The data only mean that the Dolphins aren't somehow radically different from the norm in the NFL in terms of the selection of QBs in the 1st round, as you hear many people imply they are.

Depends...I think they are pretty radically different over the last 10 or 11 years (the years we needed a QB). lots of teams have invested in QBs in the first since then and most of the others already have established QBs. No team save for the Browns have been without a legitimately good QB as long as us without at last trying the 1st round route. The Redskins are getting close (no good QBs and havent tried since 03). Not two organizations you want to model yourself after. So we have been pretty different over the last decade and change.

 

[2413fanphins]

I think would could say without pause, that 15 teams minimum would draft andrew luck if afforded the chance.

another 10-12 would probably take their chances on barkley and jones if given the chance.

 

[Shouright]

Depends...I think they are pretty radically different over the last 10 or 11 years (the years we needed a QB). lots of teams have invested in QBs in the first since then and most of the others already have established QBs. No team save for the Browns have been without a legitimately good QB as long as us without at last trying the 1st round route. The Redskins are getting close (no good QBs and havent tried since 03). Not two organizations you want to model yourself after. So we have been pretty different over the last decade and change.

In the past 10 drafts (2002-2011), these are the numbers of QBs drafted in the 1st round by team. Bolded teams are currently settled at the QB position because of that draft pick.

Arizona Cardinals: 1
Atlanta Falcons: 1
Baltimore Ravens: 2
Buffalo Bills: 1
Carolina Panthers: 1
Chicago Bears: 1
Cincinnati Bengals: 1
Cleveland Browns: 1
Dallas Cowboys: 0
Denver Broncos: 2
Detroit Lions: 2
Green Bay Packers: 1
Houston Texans: 1
Indianapolis Colts: 0
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2
Kansas City Chiefs: 0
Miami Dolphins: 0
Minnesota Vikings: 1
New England Patriots: 0
New Orleans Saints: 0
New York Giants: 1
New York Jets: 1
Oakland Raiders: 1
Philadelphia Eagles: 0
Pittsburgh Steelers: 1
San Diego Chargers: 1
San Francisco 49ers: 1
Seattle Seahawks: 0
St. Louis Rams: 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1
Tennessee Titans: 1
Washington Redskins: 2

17 of the 29 QBs (59%) taken in the 1st round during that period have not achieved the intended result, i.e., an adequate, long-term solution to the position.

Only 12 of the 29 QBs (41%) drafted in the 1st round during that period have resulted in an adequate, long-term solution to the position.

The odds are against solving the quarterback position, even with a 1st-round pick.

Now, there may not be a better way of doing it, but doing it even in the 1st round stands you a better chance of being unsuccessful than successful.

 

[tylerdolphin]

In the past 10 drafts (2002-2011), these are the numbers of QBs drafted in the 1st round by team. Bolded teams are currently settled at the QB position because of that draft pick.

Arizona Cardinals: 1
Atlanta Falcons: 1
Baltimore Ravens: 2
Buffalo Bills: 1
Carolina Panthers: 1
Chicago Bears: 1
Cincinnati Bengals: 1
Cleveland Browns: 1
Dallas Cowboys: 0
Denver Broncos: 2
Detroit Lions: 2
Green Bay Packers: 1
Houston Texans: 1
Indianapolis Colts: 0
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2
Kansas City Chiefs: 0
Miami Dolphins: 0
Minnesota Vikings: 1
New England Patriots: 0
New Orleans Saints: 0
New York Giants: 1
New York Jets: 1
Oakland Raiders: 1
Philadelphia Eagles: 0
Pittsburgh Steelers: 1
San Diego Chargers: 1
San Francisco 49ers: 1
Seattle Seahawks: 0
St. Louis Rams: 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1
Tennessee Titans: 1
Washington Redskins: 2

17 of the 29 QBs (59%) taken in the 1st round during that period have not achieved the intended result, i.e., an adequate, long-term solution to the position.

Only 12 of the 29 QBs (41%) drafted in the 1st round during that period have resulted in an adequate, long-term solution to the position.

The odds are against solving the quarterback position, even with a 1st-round pick.

Now, there may not be a better way of doing it, but doing it even in the 1st round stands you a better chance of being unsuccessful than successful.

I agree. But I think Luck has a higher than 41% shot for sure. Still, the problem is we havent even tried and we have that in common with the doormats of the league.

 

[2413fanphins]

so bascially it's a 50/50 shot give or take 7-8% over the last decade...

what are the odds of fixing the qb position in the first round, IF you don't take a qb in the first round?

I think the teams who have a qb that was a first rounder are obviously more successful than teams that don't. One could also argue that the eagles, colts, and I believe saints..(or was brees a 2nd rounder), have a qb who was a first rounder, although not drafted by the team they currently play for. cutler was a first round pick, playing for the bears now...

i really can't wrap my head around this concept. I guess is what I'm saying. from what I can see, most of the good teams in the league, have a qb that was a first round selection... generally speaking.

 

[DeathStar]

I agree. But I think Luck has a higher than 41% shot for sure. Still, the problem is we havent even tried and we have that in common with the doormats of the league.

We have been mediocre at QB since Marino...and some on this board still don't want to draft a franchise QB.

We have done everything except the 1st round QB option...and it has gotten us NO WHERE.

/sigh.

 

[Shouright]

from what I can see, most of the good teams in the league, have a qb that was a first round selection... generally speaking.

Let's define "good teams" as those currently above .500.

Of the 15 teams currently in that position, 10 of them (67%) are using a QB drafted in the 1st round.

Of the 17 teams currently .500 or below, 7 of them (41%) are also using a QB drafted in the 1st round.

 

[Shouright]

We have been mediocre at QB since Marino...and some on this board still don't want to draft a franchise QB.

We have done everything except the 1st round QB option...and it has gotten us NO WHERE.

/sigh.

Another person engaged in a dialogue with his own thoughts, projecting them onto the thread and attributing them to at least one other person.

If you're going to criticize what you think other people are saying, make sure you aren't just talking to yourself first.

 

[Scrap]

We have to factor in how many those other team's qb's have been successful. Not a lot of need to draft a 1st rounder if you have Brett Favre for 80 years. (Just kidding about the time, obviously).

 

[Shouright]

We have to factor in how many those other team's qb's have been successful. Not a lot of need to draft a 1st rounder if you have Brett Favre for 80 years. (Just kidding about the time, obviously).

Feel free to enter that into the equation and see what you come up with.

I suspect it'll have no significant relationship with the data, since there is very little variation present in the data to begin with.

Also, the ironic thing about your statement is that it offers support for the reasoning behind Miami's not having taken a QB in the 1st round since 1983, in that it had Dan Marino for a large chunk of that time.

 

[Scrap]

I'm not arguing for or against your point. I was recommending that. It's an interesting thread to me.

 

[tay0365]

..that we're only 1 of two teams to have not taken a 1st round QB in that span. That's what I find significant about your information.

Actually it's 9 teams, 10 if you include the Saints who have not taken any since.



New Orleans Saints: 0

Dallas Cowboys: 1
Green Bay Packers: 1
Houston Texans: 1
Kansas City Chiefs: 1
Miami Dolphins: 1
New York Giants: 1
Philadelphia Eagles: 1
Pittsburgh Steelers: 1
St. Louis Rams: 1

Indianapolis Colts: 2
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2
Minnesota Vikings: 2
New England Patriots: 2
New York Jets: 2
Oakland Raiders: 2
San Diego Chargers: 2
San Francisco 49ers: 2
Seattle Seahawks: 2
Arizona Cardinals: 2
Atlanta Falcons: 2
Baltimore Ravens: 2
Buffalo Bills: 2
Carolina Panthers: 2
Cleveland Browns: 2

Chicago Bears: 3
Cincinnati Bengals: 3
Tampa Bay Bucs: 3
Washington Redskins: 3
Denver Broncos: 3

Tennessee Titans: 4
Detroit Lions: 4