Teams Rarely Draft QBs in the 1st Round?

[The Confessor]

I'm not stating that the team is "set", but I am stating that their particular team will not be drafting a first round QB or a "relevant" QB in the next 5 years.

I disagree. I don't think any of those 3 guys are worth anything, and it won't take their respective teams 5 years to learn that....

 

[MRojas4]

Then again, with the new rookie wage scale. Teams will be able to go through QB's or first round talent like hot cakes without fear of loosing out on 50 million dollars. Welcome to the new age of the NFL gentlemen. I expect first round QB numbers to increase drastically in the next decade or so, teams will be able to churn and burn through QB's to find the right fit, without getting stuck with a huge bill (Fatrussel, Ryan Leaf, etc......)

 

[The Confessor]

Then again, with the new rookie wage scale. Teams will be able to go through QB's or first round talent like hot cakes without fear of loosing out on 50 million dollars. Welcome to the new age of the NFL gentlemen. I expect first round QB numbers to increase drastically in the next decade or so, teams will be able to churn and burn through QB's to find the right fit, without getting stuck with a huge bill (Fatrussel, Ryan Leaf, etc......)

Yep, I agree with this.

I think that the value of the QB will change dramatically in drafts.

IF you go back and look at past drafts...say pre mid-80's, there were actually very few QB's drafted even top-10.


We will indeed see much change as you suggest, just not sure which way that change will shift.

 

[ROADRUNNER]

suck for luck............ye

 

[TGall13]

I think that will change. With the rookie cap, teams will be inclined to take QB's earlier as it won't set their franchise back in terms of $$ for as long. Also, when you draft a QB in the first round and he sticks, there's no need to draft one for many years. Look at St. Louis, Atlanta, Cinci, Baltimore, Carolina, to name a few, they will not be drafting a QB for a long time.

 

[NY8123]

It doesn't matter who the **** is drafted in the 1st round as long as it isn't a lineman. That didn't workout so well. Luck, Brakley, Jones it is well past time to take a shot in round 1.

 

[walt]

What this data tells me is that it happens a lot, the opposite of your poimt.

 

[Finland]

I didn't realize all threads that were started had to be relevant to "the concern at hand" as defined by "Finland."

I suppose one cannot simply present data in the hope that it spurs some interesting discussion that may be irrelevant to "the concern at hand" as defined by "Finland."

The almighty "Finland" hath spoken. Redirect your efforts at once.

Or, perhaps since this thread has received over one thousand views and one hundred replies, there can be discussion about more than just "the concern at hand" as defined by "Finland," especially since "the concern at hand" as defined by "Finland" is being talked about elsewhere ad nauseam, with little or no new data to explore.

So, if you'd like to discuss your personal "concern at hand" oh "Finland," there is plenty of space in which to do it, without attempting to redirect any threads in that fashion.

It was your thread. What is the point of this thread, other than you are suggesting not to spend a first round pick on a QB. Do you think we need a QB? What is your solution to getting one, if not a first rounder, and who would you select? Lets try that. You forgot the discussion point you are saying was the point of the thread. What to do about QB. I personally think we should have been looking for a replacement for Marino, right after we gave Scott Mitchell to Detroit. We can piss on each other all day, week, month, season, or we could exchange ideas. I obviously insulted you. Perhaps I should have said, what you are saying is pointless without your suggestion of what to do. When there are well regarded top picks at QB how can you not take the gamble at this point (or in any recent year). Look at who we put at QB man. Come on.

 

[tylerdolphin]

Feel free to put forth the effort to check my work, since so far I've been one of the few to actually do any.

99.9% of the posts here are personal opinions based on no research at all.

When someone actually conducts some research, the reception should be very positive and supportive in my opinion, since information that goes well beyond someone's personal opinion is much more useful and informative.

Look man, Im not spending time throwing together research on common knowledge that has been proven to be correct hunreds of times on this very board. If you need me to provide tangible proof that 1st round QBs are a better bet that QBs from other rounds, I cant help you. Its been shown 1000 times in this forum and its obvious if you watch football.

All you are doing here is throwing around numbers and acting like some genius wizard because you can add. You just threw meaningless numbers out there and when someone explains why they are meaningless, you never really address the point. Furthermore, how can you claim your "research" useful in any way when all you do is deny that you really meant any inferences we draw from it. Im not knocking real analysis, but this post is not analysis. Stop acting like the smartest person in the room just because people call you on your BS numbers.

 

[tylerdolphin]

Here is a list of every first round quarterback taken in the 20 years between 1990 and 2009. The bolded ones have been successes, broadly defined:

1990 – Andre Ware (Detroit), Jeff George (Indianapolis)
1991 – Dan McGwire (Seattle), Todd Marinovich (Oakland)
1992 – David Klingler (Cincinnati), Dave Brown (N.Y. Giants), Tommy Maddox (Broncos)
1993 – Drew Bledsoe (New England), Rick Mirer (Seattle)
1994 – Heath Shuler (Washington), Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay)
1995 – Steve McNair (Houston), Kerry Collins (Carolina)
1996 – NONE
1997 – Jim Druckenmiller (San Francisco)
1998 – Peyton Manning (Indianapolis), Ryan Leaf (San Diego)
1999 – Akili Smith (Cincinnati), Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota), Cade McNown (Chicago)
2000 – Chad Pennington (New York Jets)
2001 – Mike Vick (Atlanta)
2002 – David Carr (Houston), Joey Harrington (Detroit), Patrick Ramsey (Washington)
2003 – Carson Palmer (Cincinnati), Byron Leftwich (Jacksonville), Kyle Boller (Baltimore), Rex Grossman (Chicago)
2004 – Eli Manning (N.Y. Giants), Philip Rivers (San Diego), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh), J.P. Losman (Buffalo)
2005 – Alex Smith (San Francisco), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Jason Campbell (Washington)
2006 – Matt Leinart (Arizona), Jay Cutler (Denver)
2007 – JaMarcus Russell (Oakland), Brady Quinn (Cleveland)
2008 – Matt Ryan (Atlanta), Joe Flacco (Baltimore)
2009 – Matt Stafford (Detroit), Mark Sanchez (N.Y. Jets), Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

By my estimation, 20 of 45, or 44%, have been successes.

Here is the list of quarterbacks taken in the second round in the same timeframe. Again successes bolded:

2001	Drew Brees	San Diego
2001	Quincy Carter	Dallas
2001	Marques Tuiasosopo	Oakland
2006	Kellen Clemens	Jets
2006	Tarvaris Jackson	Vikings
2007	Kevin Kolb	Philadelphia
2007	John Beck	Miami
2007	Drew Stanton	Detroit
2008	Brian Brohm	Green Bay
2008	Chad Henne	Miami
2009	Pat White	Miami
2010	Jimmy Clausen	Carolina

2000 - NONE
1999 - Shaun King (Bucs)
1998 - Charlie Batch (Lions)
1997 - Jake Plummer (Cardinals)
1996 - Tony Banks (Rams)
1995 - Todd Collins (Bills), Kordell Stewart (Steelers)
1994 - NONE
1993 - NONE
1992 - Matt Blundin (Chiefs), Tony Sacca (Cardinals)
1991 - Brett Favre (Falcons), Browning Nagle (Jets)
1990 - NONE

Not counting Clausen, since he's outside the range of years looked at for first-round guys, 4 of 21 were successes, or 19%.

Kevin Kolb is not bolded, by the way.

I see 1 SB since 1990 outside the first 32 picks :idk:

Ill take my chances in the first, that being the case.

 

[Shouright]

It was your thread. What is the point of this thread, other than you are suggesting not to spend a first round pick on a QB. Do you think we need a QB? What is your solution to getting one, if not a first rounder, and who would you select? Lets try that. You forgot the discussion point you are saying was the point of the thread. What to do about QB. I personally think we should have been looking for a replacement for Marino, right after we gave Scott Mitchell to Detroit. We can piss on each other all day, week, month, season, or we could exchange ideas. I obviously insulted you. Perhaps I should have said, what you are saying is pointless without your suggestion of what to do. When there are well regarded top picks at QB how can you not take the gamble at this point (or in any recent year). Look at who we put at QB man. Come on.

The point is that, in direct contrast to the sentiment that the Miami Dolphins are somehow "stupid" for not having taken a QB in the 1st round since Dan Marino, few teams have taken many more than that in the 1st round during that same period. It's not like the majority of the league is doing one thing, and the Dolphins are doing something radically different.

That's all. Simple point. No implications about "when" in the draft it's best to take a QB.

The next time you're sitting in a bar and somebody says the Dolphins are stupid because they haven't taken a QB in the 1st round since Marino, you can say you know of objective data that shows that isn't all that different from the league norm. You can say that very few teams in the league have taken significantly more QBs than that in the 1st round during that period.

And then when they say, "are you saying teams shouldn't draft QBs in the 1st round?" you can say, "no, I'm just telling you how often it happens."

And in contrast to 99.9% of the stuff that comes out of this board, you'll be able to rest on the fact that your statements were generated by empirical data rather than just someone's personal opinion.

 

[Shouright]

Look man, Im not spending time throwing together research on common knowledge that has been proven to be correct hunreds of times on this very board. If you need me to provide tangible proof that 1st round QBs are a better bet that QBs from other rounds, I cant help you. Its been shown 1000 times in this forum and its obvious if you watch football.

OK, well then say you can't help me because you don't feel like it. Don't act like you have some authoritative opinion that should be respected just because you're you.

All you are doing here is throwing around numbers and acting like some genius wizard because you can add. You just threw meaningless numbers out there and when someone explains why they are meaningless, you never really address the point. Furthermore, how can you claim your "research" useful in any way when all you do is deny that you really meant any inferences we draw from it. Im not knocking real analysis, but this post is not analysis. Stop acting like the smartest person in the room just because people call you on your BS numbers.

The problem you're having is that you want the numbers to be relevant to a topic you're tossing around in your mind, rather than to the one I've raised.

That's what makes the data appear to be pointless to you.

You're so hellbent on talking about the topic that's important to you, that the topic I'm talking about seems meaningless to you.

That's fine -- the topic I've generated doesn't have to be meaningful to you. But don't try to jam the square peg in the round hole, and then when it doesn't fit call the square peg "meaningless" just because you want it to fit in the round hole so bad.

 

[tylerdolphin]

The point is that, in direct contrast to the sentiment that the Miami Dolphins are somehow "stupid" for not having taken a QB in the 1st round since Dan Marino, few teams have taken many more than that in the 1st round during that same period. It's not like the majority of the league is doing one thing, and the Dolphins are doing something radically different.

That's all. Simple point. No implications about "when" in the draft it's best to take a QB.

The next time you're sitting in a bar and somebody says the Dolphins are stupid because they haven't taken a QB in the 1st round since Marino, you can say you know of objective data that shows that isn't all that different from the league norm. You can say that very few teams in the league have taken significantly more QBs than that in the 1st round during that period.

And then when they say, "are you saying teams shouldn't draft QBs in the 1st round?" you can say, "no, I'm just telling you how often it happens."

And then people will look at me cross eyed because I clearly have no idea what Im talking about. Teams that dont have a QB have to address it. Some teams get lucky, others have to go the 1st round route. Lucky has CLEARLY not worked for us, so yes we are stupid for not going the 1st round route. Answer me these questions:

1. Is QB important?
2. If you dont have one, should you try get one?
3. What is the best round to get one in?

I totally expect you to beat around the bush and act like you didnt imply so and so and didnt mean so and so, but whatever. Your data means nothing. Its just quantity numbers. It says nothing about the quality of teams QB play and nothing of how well run the team is. Well run teams have good QBs and therefore need to draft them less. ****ty teams dont have QBs and make no effort to draft them.

 

[Shouright]

What this data tells me is that it happens a lot, the opposite of your poimt.

So individual teams actually take QBs in the 1st round "a lot."

Please, help me understand your point of view.

 

[tylerdolphin]

OK, well then say you can't help me because you don't feel like it. Don't act like you have some authoritative opinion that should be respected just because you're you.

The problem you're having is that you want the numbers to be relevant to a topic you're tossing around in your mind, rather than to the one I've raised.

That's what makes the data appear to be pointless to you.

You're so hellbent on talking about the topic that's important to you, that the topic I'm talking about seems meaningless to you.

That's fine -- the topic I've generated doesn't have to be meaningful to you. But don't try to jam the square peg in the round hole, and then when it doesn't fit call the square peg "meaningless" just because you want it to fit in the round hole so bad.

OK then. For the love of God TELL me why I should give a hundredth of a single damn about how many QBs each team has drafted lately. Please. Prove to me it means something. Show me how it makes sense that we havent attempted since Marino retired.