Teams Rarely Draft QBs in the 1st Round?

[CharlieTheTuna]

This whole thread is ridiculous. The OP is willing to throw the words statistical manipulation without acknowledging he is choosing the single year the dolphins are closest to the norm. Even still, the findings fail to prove his point. Why choose the Last Year we drafted a first round QB as the starting point for a statistical analysis about how often teams pick first round QB's. That is as much of a manipulation of the numbers as choosing the year after. Also, there are teams listed like the Panthers and Jaguars that have only existed since the 90's.

Why not go back to 1980, 1975, 1970 where our total number of QB's drafted in the first round would still be one. Your main point is that drafting a first round QB is uncommon, yet you can't see the artificially inflating the number by 1 is extremely misleading. If you choose to start this list in 1983 or 1967 (the only 2 times we picked a QB) then you are missing the point of your own thread.

The only conclusion this thread shows is that however you want to skew the numbers, the Dolphins are at the very bottom of the league in treating QB as a first round priority. It is insane to use the single pick of Marino in 1983, as justification that we are anywhere near the norm in this area, especially when we have desperately needed a QB ever since he retired. There is no statistic that shows that teams that desperately need QB's draft them when they have early first round picks, but basic common sense and awareness or reality says that they do.

 

[Dan2Duper]

I haven't read the whole thread so forgive me if this has already been brought up. What position has been picked most frequently in the top 5 of the first round? I haven't looked it up, but I'd betcha it's QB. I think that says it all for how valuable the position is.

 

[Shouright]

The only conclusion this thread shows is that however you want to skew the numbers, the Dolphins are at the very bottom of the league in treating QB as a first round priority.

That's your conclusion, and you've put forth no data to support it.

 

[CharlieTheTuna]

That's your conclusion, and you've put forth no data to support it.

I'm basing it on how your intentionally skewed data still shows that we are still below average in this area. For my data, take ANY YEAR AFTER 1983 and we will be at the very bottom. Or just make it 1970 and we will be much further down the list.

You are missing my point that you are cherry picking the single year that is best for your non-argument. Honestly, I don't need data to disprove your broken and biased premise.

 

[Shouright]

I'm basing it on how your intentionally skewed data still shows that we are still well below average in this area. For my data, take any year AFTER 1983 and we will be at the very bottom. Or just make it 1970 and we will be much further down the list. You are missing my point that you are cherry picking the single year that is best for your non-argument. I don't need data to disprove a broken and biased premise.

If the argument I'm addressing is that "the Dolphins are stupid because they haven't picked a quarterback in the 1st round since Dan Marino," 1970 doesn't apply, nor does anything pre-1983.

So, with that said, go ahead and start with 1984 and see what you come up with.

Or should we start with when Marino retired? Or when his play started to decline appreciably? Or after his retirement, but when it became clear we had no adequate replacement?

 

[JB1089]

This is the problem with the OP's premise, if someone else has already pointed it out, I'm sorry, but I wasn't reading through 16 pages.

The 49ers are on year 7 of Alex Smith. The Lions stuck with Joey Harrington for 4 years. Tim Couch was the starter in Cleveland for almost 5 years.

If you draft a QB in the first round, especially if it's high in the 1st round, that's your guy for at least 5 years. The Lions actually pulled the string on Harrington pretty quickly. Unless you picked Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, you're not going to be drafting another QB for quite a while because of how long they usually take to develop. Leaf and Russell were dumped because they didn't work at it. That's not the case for most highly drafted QBs.

So if a team missed on a QB every time for the last 30 years, I don't see how they could have taken more than 5 or 6 QBs in the 1st round at the most. If you hit on one, it's going to be at least 10 years before you spend another 1st round draft pick, possibly longer because when you have an entrenched starter, you can spend a few 2nd-7th round picks on QBs that you can groom on the bench for 2-4 years. There's only room for 1 QB on a team, it's not like drafting linemen, linebackers, or DBs.

 

[Shouright]

This is the problem with the OP's premise, if someone else has already pointed it out, I'm sorry, but I wasn't reading through 16 pages.

The 49ers are on year 7 of Alex Smith. The Lions stuck with Joey Harrington for 4 years. Tim Couch was the starter in Cleveland for almost 5 years.

If you draft a QB in the first round, especially if it's high in the 1st round, that's your guy for at least 5 years. The Lions actually pulled the string on Harrington pretty quickly. Unless you picked Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, you're not going to be drafting another QB for quite a while because of how long they usually take to develop. Leaf and Russell were dumped because they didn't work at it. That's not the case for most highly drafted QBs.

So if a team missed on a QB every time for the last 30 years, I don't see how they could have taken more than 5 or 6 QBs in the 1st round at the most. If you hit on one, it's going to be at least 10 years before you spend another 1st round draft pick, possibly longer because when you have an entrenched starter, you can spend a few 2nd-7th round picks on QBs that you can groom on the bench for 2-4 years. There's only room for 1 QB on a team, it's not like drafting linemen, linebackers, or DBs.

And all that makes sense, and it's precisely the reason why, when you look at the data as a whole, you can't really say the Dolphins are "stupid" for not having drafted a QB in the 1st round since Marino.

First of all, like you said, you have Marino's very successful career itself, which ate up quite a big chunk of the time between when he was drafted and now. It would've been foolish for us to have drafted a QB in the 1st round anytime between 1984 and 1997, give or take a year.

So that leaves the past 14 years in which it would've been sensible for us to draft a QB in the 1st round.

What I suspect is that if you look at the data during that 14 years, you'd find that a significant percentage of NFL teams also did not choose a quarterback in the 1st round, regardless of the success of their quarterback play during that period, and regardless of whether they were trying to develop a QB they had chosen in the 1st round just prior to that period.

So are the Dolphins stupid for not having taken a QB in the 1st round during that period, or is a significant percentage of the league stupid as well?

 

[JB1089]

And all that makes sense, and it's precisely the reason why, when you look at the data as a whole, you can't really say the Dolphins are "stupid" for not having drafted a QB in the 1st round since Marino.

First of all, like you said, you have Marino's very successful career itself, which ate up quite a big chunk of the time between when he was drafted and now. It would've been foolish for us to have drafted a QB in the 1st round anytime between 1984 and 1997, give or take a year.

So that leaves the past 14 years in which it would've been sensible for us to draft a QB in the 1st round.

What I suspect is that if you look at the data during that 14 years, you'd find that a significant percentage of NFL teams also did not choose a quarterback in the 1st round, regardless of the success of their quarterback play during that period, and regardless of whether they were trying to develop a QB they had chosen in the 1st round just prior to that period.

So are the Dolphins stupid for not having taken a QB in the 1st round during that period, or is a significant percentage of the league stupid as well?

If you hadn't responded in such a reasonable manner, I would have been done here. But you had to be all level-headed and logical about it, so now I feel compelled to respond. Off I go to the internet, to find support for my position. Be back in a few hours.

 

[JB1089]

Well, it didn't quite take that long.

The Ronnie Brown pick in the 2005 draft has to be the dumbest pick in the history of your franchise. You had an old Jay Fiedler and AJ Feeley as the QBs on a 4-12 team, had the 2nd pick in the draft, and went into next year with Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels? Really? I mean, I know hindsight is 20/20, but there was actually someone who thought that was a good idea at the time? Didn't it go down to the wire as to whether the 49ers were going to take Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers?

The Beck and Henne picks would have been fine, had they been made in '00, '01, or even '02, when Fiedler was the 30-something year old starter.

This brings me to a question that I have for you guys. What happened to your 1st round draft picks in 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2003? That's four years with no opportunity to draft a QB right there.

I'd also argue that if you shrunk the window from '83-present to '99-present, you'd get a more accurate reflection of how teams draft in the modern era. Quarterbacks are not developed the way they were in year's past. It's rare that you see QB spend years on the bench, as was commonplace at one time. It's also when the Dolphins knew that the Marino era was over. Since that year's draft, these are the only teams that have not taken at least 1 QB in the first round:

Miami
Indianapolis
New England
New Orleans
Kansas City
Dallas
Seattle

11 teams have drafted 2 first round QBs in that same time period. That makes 11 teams with 2, 7 teams with 0, and 15 teams with 1. Of the teams with none drafted in the 1st round, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Matt Hasselbeck have started for 5 of the 7. The Chiefs had Trent Green as their starter for 6 years, went 2 years with no QB, and now have Cassel entrenched as their starter. The starting QBs for those 6 teams have a combined 31 Pro Bowls among them (Manning 11, Brady 6, Brees 5, Romo 3, Hasselbeck 3, Green 2, Cassel 1). That last team would be the Miami Dolphins, who have had ZERO Pro Bowl QBs over that span of time.

So, NFL teams in the last 13 years fall into three categories:

1. You Have Drafted a Quarterback in the 1st Round
2. Your Team's Starting Quarterback Has Been to the Pro Bowl At Least 3 Times
3. You're the Miami Dolphins

 

[Kthurmus23]

I dont know if it's been said, didnt want to go through the whole thread. The Saints drafted Archie Manning in the first round so they arent at 0.

 

[tylerdolphin]

I see what youre trying to say shouright, but I just dont see how you can not call the Dolphins stupid in their lack of 1st round draft emphasis on QB. In the last 10 years, nearly every team in the league has had a franchise QB or spent a 1st round pick attempting to get one. The only exceptions? The Browns, the Redskins and us. Elite company there.

If you have a need, the best way to address the need is in the 1st round, and you refuse to do that...yea, the team is stupid.

 

[Shouright]

I'd also argue that if you shrunk the window from '83-present to '99-present, you'd get a more accurate reflection of how teams draft in the modern era. Quarterbacks are not developed the way they were in year's past. It's rare that you see QB spend years on the bench, as was commonplace at one time. It's also when the Dolphins knew that the Marino era was over. Since that year's draft, these are the only teams that have not taken at least 1 QB in the first round:

Miami
Indianapolis
New England
New Orleans
Kansas City
Dallas
Seattle

11 teams have drafted 2 first round QBs in that same time period. That makes 11 teams with 2, 7 teams with 0, and 15 teams with 1. Of the teams with none drafted in the 1st round, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Matt Hasselbeck have started for 5 of the 7. The Chiefs had Trent Green as their starter for 6 years, went 2 years with no QB, and now have Cassel entrenched as their starter. The starting QBs for those 6 teams have a combined 31 Pro Bowls among them (Manning 11, Brady 6, Brees 5, Romo 3, Hasselbeck 3, Green 2, Cassel 1). That last team would be the Miami Dolphins, who have had ZERO Pro Bowl QBs over that span of time.

So, NFL teams in the last 13 years fall into three categories:

1. You Have Drafted a Quarterback in the 1st Round
2. Your Team's Starting Quarterback Has Been to the Pro Bowl At Least 3 Times
3. You're the Miami Dolphins

Great research -- thanks for looking into it.

Out of curiosity I did some more of my own.

Here are the quarterbacks chosen in the 1st round by team during that period:

Arizona Cardinals: Matt Leinart 2006
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan 2008, Michael Vick 2001
Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco 2008, Kyle Boller 2003
Buffalo Bills: JP Losman 2004
Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton 2011
Chicago Bears: Rex Grossman 2003, Cade McNown 1999
Cincinnati Bengals: Carson Palmer 2003, Akili Smith 1999
Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn 2007, Tim Couch 1999
Dallas Cowboys: None
Denver Broncos: Tim Tebow 2010, Jay Cutler 2006
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford 2009, Joey Harrington 2002
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers, 2005
Houston Texans: David Carr 2002
Indianapolis Colts: None
Jacksonville Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert 2011, Byron Leftwich 2003
Kansas City Chiefs: None
Miami Dolphins: None
Minnesota Vikings: Christian Ponder 2011, Daunte Culpepper 1999
New England Patriots: None
New Orleans Saints: None
New York Giants: Eli Manning 2004
New York Jets: Mark Sanchez 2009, Chad Pennington 2000
Oakland Raiders: Jamarcus Russell 2007
Philadelphia Eagles: Donovan McNabb 1999
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger 2004
San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers 2004
San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith 2005
Seattle Seahawks: None
St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford 2010
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman 2009
Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker 2011, Vince Young 2006
Washington Redskins: Jason Campbell 2005, Patrick Ramsey 2002

Players who have had the requisite time to develop and have been busts are highlighted in black.

36 QBs total have been taken. 6 of them are still developing and are italicized.

14 of the remaining 30 (47%) have been busts.

If you consider Jason Campbell and Alex Smith to have been busts (debatable), that number rises to 53%.

 

[2413fanphins]

by my count 16 of those qbs have had/or are having success, however none of them were as nfl ready nor got the media attention for being nfl ready as andrew luck.

so IMO, we'd have at least a 50/50 shot with a barkly or jones, and could expect a significant higher rate of success with somebody the entire world compares to being as nfl ready as john elway.

you are one helluva researcher btw... have to give you that!

 

[houtz]

Means nothing. Do the research on the other rounds, I'm sure the success rate in the first is better. Hell, look at all the 2nd round picks we've spent on a "franchise Qb", it's never worked out.

The next regime better make a move. Maybe they'll be forced to draft Luck #1 overall, if not they should do whatever it takes to get Luck, after that you draft Barkley,Jones or RG3. Because despite your research avoiding a franchise QB has proven nothing but heartbreak and defeat.

 

[Gsmack_42]

Chicago Bears: Rex Grossman 2003, Cade McNown 1999 Jay Cutler 2009,2010
Oakland Raiders: Jamarcus Russell 2007, Carson Palmer 2012, and a 2nd that could turn into a 1st in 2013

fixed it for you traded 1st rounders are still used for a QB.