The days of the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart are over. It is unrealistic to get most of the value of a higher pick these days because of the rookie wage scale basically making a mistake at QB affordable, plus the salary cap these days. But, in general, I agree that we will probably get more value trading down for a team who wants a QB.
To trade down and get decent value ... you need a trade partner. That means if the Jet's are open to a trade ... they're going to get the sweet deal and we may not even get any legitimate offers worth considering. But if the Jets stand pat and draft Sewell, then our pick suddenly becomes a hot item!
I highly doubt the Jags trade out of the #1 pick unless its to us at #3 to get Justin Fields (very unlikely, but his coach was Urban Meyer), or to the Texans in a trade for Watson. And honestly, I think there's still a 99% chance the Jags use the pick and select Trevor Lawrence. So, this pick will be all about the #2 QB, which I believe will probably be Zack Wilson of BYU. He hasn't started as many games as people would like, and he didn't play in a particularly strong conference, but the ability is obvious, and he'll probably be the second QB taken. Both Justin Fields and Trey Lance are going to have some scouts falling in love with them ... but likely not nearly as many as Wilson, who is more of a sure thing.
Our best case scenario is the Jets taking Sewell and trading back to a QB hungry team. But ... both a trade partner and what the Jets do with their pick are out of our hands.