hoops
Tua time!
i think this draft is gonna be loaded...but there also is some serious talent on the horizon next year
no doubt
no doubt
The 44th pick
- Thread starter Marc790
- Start date
ckparrothead
Premium Member
Some of this to me seems like "we can't know that the earth revolves around the sun..."
I'm just saying that actually, yes we can know some of this stuff.
When it comes to the draft, I don't believe in the time value of draft picks. I don't believe there's a draft pick interest rate that makes a 2nd rounder in 2010 worth a 1st rounder in 2011. Winning in 2012 will mean just as much to us when we come to it in 2012, as winning in 2011 will mean to us in 2011. You can time things based on certain other factors like coaching tenure, the age of your best playmakers, even perhaps free agent contracts...but most people assume there's a default "interest rate" for draft picks and I don't see any proof of the validity of that, whatsoever.
Therefore, ANY time you can give up a 2nd rounder and get a 1st rounder in return, IMO you're just getting flat out free upgrade.
That said, there are a few reasons why draft picks in 2011 should be worth more, not less, than 2010 draft picks. In other words, if you had the #3 overall pick in 2010, and by some theoretical and inconceivable method you are able to trade the #3 in 2010 for a #10 in 2011, I believe you should do that. Here is why:
1. The pending wage scale. Everyone knows it will get done, what they don't know is just exactly what shape it will take. One thing that is CERTAIN, however, is that the inflation of rookie salaries at the top of the draft will stop. That means a #5 pick in 2011 will be worth more than a #5 pick in 2010 because in 2010 you're going to have to pay that guy a ton of money and in 2011 you will either be able to pay the guy much less money, which is what most people think will happen, or you'll at worst be paying him the same money as in 2010, which would still be a good deal because the salary cap tends to grow every year.
2. I've scouted the college players enough to know what is available in 2010, what will be available in 2011, and what could be available in 2011. And I can tell you right now, I'm salivating over the 2011 class. Everyone are obsessed with the idea that a record number of juniors will come out because of the wage scale and they assume this means that the 2010 draft will be deep and extremely talented. It's going to be what it's going to be, just because juniors come out that doesn't necessarily mean it's more talented. Fact of the matter is some of the best players in all of college football are second year players, not third year players. This would include the likes of QB Andrew Luck, WR Jonathan Baldwin, WR Julio Jones, WR Michael Floyd, WR A.J. Green, RB Mark Ingram, RB Ryan Williams, DE DaQuan Bowers, DE Robert Quinn, OLB Akeem Ayers, CB Patrick Peterson and FS Rahim Moore. And some of the really good draft eligibles have indicated that they're staying in school. This includes guys like QB Jake Locker, QB Ryan Mallett, QB Christian Ponder, TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Demaryius Thomas, OT Gabe Carimi, OT Nate Solder, OG Orlando Franklin, OG Rodney Hudson, OC Kris O'Dowd, the G/C Pouncey brothers, DE Cameron Heyward, DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Marvin Austin, DT Allen Bailey, DT Stephen Paea, LB Bruce Carter, LB Mark Herzlich, CB Amari Spievey, CB Ras-I Dowling, CB Kendric Burney, CB Charles Brown, FS Chad Jones, FS Deunta Williams and SS DeAndre McDaniel.
Sure you can just say that I don't know what I'm looking at, but that's convenient. Just because you don't do the research and look at these guys, know a lot about them, doesn't mean other people don't.
I believe wholeheartedly that trading the #44 for a first round pick in 2011 is the best strategy, and I don't have any problem saying it.
You know what team seems to walk into each draft with a ton of first day picks? The Patriots. Why? Because they're the most active team in football when it comes to trading present picks for a future, higher pick. They've done it a ton of times since Belichick joined. I have no doubt that Belichick, Pioli, and probably that mysterious Ernie Adams guy, decided long ago the same exact thing I have outlined...that present picks are worth approximately what future picks are and therefore any time you can get someone to give you a future pick that is a round higher than your present pick, it's probably a worthwhile trade because it's like free money in the long haul.
hoops
Tua time!
yeah that current 2nd year list of players is eye popping...premium talents available in 2011
not to mention the kids who stayed in school you listed
not to mention the kids who stayed in school you listed
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I've never headed into a draft with such a clear picture of who I want in next year's draft and how this year's draft seems potentially disappointing in comparison.
I think there's a tendency to always think that this year's draft has disappointing talent, I seem to hear that every year, but it's usually not focused on what will be available in the future, it's usually in my experience backward-looking (e.g. "there's no Patrick Willis in this draft" etc)
I think there's a tendency to always think that this year's draft has disappointing talent, I seem to hear that every year, but it's usually not focused on what will be available in the future, it's usually in my experience backward-looking (e.g. "there's no Patrick Willis in this draft" etc)
GeauxFinns3705
☠️ Banned ☠️
- Joined
- Apr 26, 2009
- Messages
- 1,099
- Reaction score
- 43
How can he possibly know that? We need players NOW. I would be more interested in trading the 2011 first rounder for a pick in the 2010 draft.
I know, I know...we are building for the future, and the Sparano Supporters (SS Troops) have made it abundantly clear that he will have us good in 5-6 years if we just stay with him.
If thats the strategy, maybe its not bad.
But, if a projected top ten player is avail in the mid 20's, I would be all for trading back into the first round and using next year's first round pick as bait.
We need players that we can start developing. We have one good top-level player on this team...Jake Long. Everyone else is second rate.
I know everyone wants to trade down, but we need difference makers. I'll take one at any position on defense. Right now, we have two potentially good CBs, potentially a guy at FS who might develop, a backup NT, two DEs who have shown some potential (nothing to make us think either will be elite)...other than that, nothing!
Knowing my views vs most Fins fans, I am probably just no understanding DKParrot. He probably wants to build for the 2014 season, and I am thinking of 2010. Just difference in perspective, I suppose.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I'm thinking of the long term success of the team, yes.
I do that with the full knowledge that in 2014, you will be talking about how we need to win football games in 2014, and how it's more important than winning games in 2017. And then in 2017, you will be talking about how we need to win games in 2017, and how it's more important than winning football games in 2021. And then in 2021...
I do that with the full knowledge that in 2014, you will be talking about how we need to win football games in 2014, and how it's more important than winning games in 2017. And then in 2017, you will be talking about how we need to win games in 2017, and how it's more important than winning football games in 2021. And then in 2021...
GeauxFinns3705
☠️ Banned ☠️
- Joined
- Apr 26, 2009
- Messages
- 1,099
- Reaction score
- 43
You were also the one gloating about how you called Sean Smith the second best corner in last years draft. So, you obviously be wrong. But thanks anyway. I am assuming that you don't make a living doing this? Otherwise, you would have it in your bio. If you were all you seem to want to be, do you think someone might hire you? IOW, you are just like the rest of us here...you guess.
I guess you are wrong more than you are right. I also guess that you and I just have different standards for the team. To me, the 2010 season is what matters, not 2013 or 2014 or 2020. You and I just disagree.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
We still have no idea who the second best corner in the 2009 NFL Draft is/was. And yes, I take it with a little bit of pride that a guy that got drafted in the late 2nd round was a day one starter just like I said he could be. Those guys do not typically start from day one.
You think you have some kind of point by claiming that I can be wrong? That's pretty dumb. Mel Kiper is wrong a lot. Bill Polian is wrong a lot.
You're GUESSING that I'm wrong more than I'm right? Based on what?
And yes, I am just like any of you. If, that is, any of you were to spend years looking at college film 20 hours a week, 9 months of the year, doing draft evaluations for websites.
I never claimed to be different from anyone else. I just claim to work harder and have more experience than most people which I do not consider to be a knock on anyone.
That's crazy talk! I will have died of a heart attack during a Dolphins game long before 2021. Possibly even before 2017!
Besides, I thought that teams with the same record rotated picks in each round, so wouldn't we have pick #42 or 43, seeing as we're the last 7-9 team to pick in round 1?
ckparrothead
Premium Member
We have the 12th pick in the first round, and therefore we'll have the 11th pick in the second round.
You're right that should be the #43 pick.
You're right that should be the #43 pick.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
But you get my point, Dahl. Winning is always important every year. Therefore, to me a 2nd round pick is a 2nd round pick is a 2nd round pick...so long as you're maintaining a strong enough pick selection in any given year that you don't have a big gap.
For instance you don't want to give away your entire 2010 draft for upgrades in 2011. That would leave you a gap among your drafting and that can be detrimental in other ways. The flow of contracts would be affected, and also it's like putting all your eggs in one draft basket when you should be looking to diversify with prospects from different years, because you don't want to end up with three years' worth of draft picks focused into one draft, and then that entire draft turn out to have crappy players.
For instance you don't want to give away your entire 2010 draft for upgrades in 2011. That would leave you a gap among your drafting and that can be detrimental in other ways. The flow of contracts would be affected, and also it's like putting all your eggs in one draft basket when you should be looking to diversify with prospects from different years, because you don't want to end up with three years' worth of draft picks focused into one draft, and then that entire draft turn out to have crappy players.
hoops
Tua time!
it's ok ck...
i enjoy your analysis and breakdowns of prospects and the dolphins roster...
and i enjoy getting a different perspective or outlook on players also...
i'm not afraid to disagree with you as i'm sure you know but even though i can't speak for you i'm sure you enjoy people who bring more to the table than just taking your word as gospel
i wouldn't spend so much time talking players with you and what not if i
1. didn't think you were knowledgeable
2. didn't feel like i could learn something
3. didn't feel like you were putting in the homework to base your opinions on
that's why i enjoy talking with slimm so much also...and a few others on here i think really know their stuff
i enjoy your analysis and breakdowns of prospects and the dolphins roster...
and i enjoy getting a different perspective or outlook on players also...
i'm not afraid to disagree with you as i'm sure you know but even though i can't speak for you i'm sure you enjoy people who bring more to the table than just taking your word as gospel
i wouldn't spend so much time talking players with you and what not if i
1. didn't think you were knowledgeable
2. didn't feel like i could learn something
3. didn't feel like you were putting in the homework to base your opinions on
that's why i enjoy talking with slimm so much also...and a few others on here i think really know their stuff
WelcomeBack
Active Roster
Some people feel that if you're not getting paid, you don't know your stuff and that's not the case.
If you know the game of football, know what to look for and put enough time and effort into it, you can scout talent very well.
CK does this. He knows what to look for. Knows who to watch and what they should be doing. I can say the same for Boomer, Con, Slimm and hoops as well.
RonnieB23
Starter
So, will it be the 10th or 11th pick in the 2nd ?