The New NFL - Positional Value - NFL Draft Round 1 value

[Lovethefish]

40 is actually a pretty decent threshold. Looking at the raw data from all drafts going back to 1990, pick 40 is right at the end of the steep slope of total elite players for individual draft picks, while the good players total is still holding steady at 40, right until around pick 55 where there's a significant drop.

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This makes sense from an applied perspective- it always seems there’s a drop at middle 2nd Rd in talent level.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I think that’s fair. For me though - I’m not sure I can so clearly distinguish Lamb- Higgins from Shenault, Jefferson, Hill, Jeudy, etc.
Do Lamb - Higgins project to be a Michael Thomas , Julio Jones, Mike Evans dominant type? Idk.
I guess for me RB or WR top tier has to be super dominant ie above mentioned.

I think Jeudy is probably in the same tier as Lamb and Higgins, and Wallace would be had he not gone down with the injury. Though, I'm inclined to put Lamb on his own tier. Jefferson is a really crafty/tough slot receiver, and I could see him thriving in the right situation, but I don't think he is very close to those guys, and Hill would be lower than Jefferson imo. Shenault has some boom/bust to him imo, but his ceiling is up there with the top guys. Reagor is another like that. Bust might be strong for both, but I could see either failing to develop beyond a complementary player capable of big plays.

Lamb to me is a Michael Thomas/Nuke Hopkins kind of receiver, but he has more juice than either and is better after the catch than either. I also think he creates more separation than either. He's a guy who can be really efficient with 170+ targets, and he has great tape lining up in the slot and moving around.

I'm high on Higgins, because I don't have any of the concerns with Higgins that I typically do for big WR's. He gets off press with ease, is good after the catch, plays with terrific balance and coordination, and he knows how to utilize his size to his advantage. He knows which angles to capture and seal and knows when to create separation. Okudah is the best press CB in CFB, and Higgins never looked particularly bothered by him. Okudah is certainly more athletic, but Higgins played a patient game and knew how to get to his spots. The Ohio State pass rush threw off the timing on a lot of the routes, and Higgins missed most of the 1st half, but he put himself in position to make plays.



This obv isn't press, but look at the separation, the way he accelerates through his break, and runs through Okudah's tackle. On paper, Okudah is the perfect CB to match up with Higgins - big, refined freak athlete. But, Higgins can win vs anyone.

If I'm Miami I wouldn't draft any of Young, Thomas, Brown, or Okudah ahead of Lamb. At this point, he's the non-QB I'd most want, because he's the guy who will help your QB, which will help your wins and losses, more than any other player in the draft. The gap between QB and Lamb is huge, though, and Miami would probably have to use 1a to get him. I wouldn't consider him there unless Tua and Burrow are off the board, and I couldn't execute a trade down.

 

[FSU Truth]

I just want to take a second to thank all those who have replied to this thread. So much great insight and information and a ton to think about. There are days on this forum that I am utterly impressed with the knowledge of some of the posters on this site. Thank you.

 

[NBP81]

I just want to take a second to thank all those who have replied to this thread. So much great insight and information and a ton to think about. There are days on this forum that I am utterly impressed with the knowledge of some of the posters on this site. Thank you.

What I really like about this thread is that the Fins are somewhat of a blank canvas... They have none of the high priority positions solved. So in a way, every move Grier makes this off-season will be like a post in this thread, providing insight into what he believes is the right way to build a team.

Im not confident, while I understood what Joff meant last draft when the Fins picked Wilkins and he was somewhat disappointed by the position(not the player) they decided to get at that spot, Im now fully aware of how big a mistake it was. At the very least, if you're going to make a mistake by drafting inside trench at the top of the draft, by all means do it with an inside OL, not DL especially when the guy doesnt provide penetration problems for the offense.

Thank you for starting this thread, I'd much rather be talking about strategy than wandering on the main TBH.

 

[Lovethefish]

I think Jeudy is probably in the same tier as Lamb and Higgins, and Wallace would be had he not gone down with the injury. Though, I'm inclined to put Lamb on his own tier. Jefferson is a really crafty/tough slot receiver, and I could see him thriving in the right situation, but I don't think he is very close to those guys, and Hill would be lower than Jefferson imo. Shenault has some boom/bust to him imo, but his ceiling is up there with the top guys. Reagor is another like that. Bust might be strong for both, but I could see either failing to develop beyond a complementary player capable of big plays.

Lamb to me is a Michael Thomas/Nuke Hopkins kind of receiver, but he has more juice than either and is better after the catch than either. I also think he creates more separation than either. He's a guy who can be really efficient with 170+ targets, and he has great tape lining up in the slot and moving around.

I'm high on Higgins, because I don't have any of the concerns with Higgins that I typically do for big WR's. He gets off press with ease, is good after the catch, plays with terrific balance and coordination, and he knows how to utilize his size to his advantage. He knows which angles to capture and seal and knows when to create separation. Okudah is the best press CB in CFB, and Higgins never looked particularly bothered by him. Okudah is certainly more athletic, but Higgins played a patient game and knew how to get to his spots. The Ohio State pass rush threw off the timing on a lot of the routes, and Higgins missed most of the 1st half, but he put himself in position to make plays.



This obv isn't press, but look at the separation, the way he accelerates through his break, and runs through Okudah's tackle. On paper, Okudah is the perfect CB to match up with Higgins - big, refined freak athlete. But, Higgins can win vs anyone.

If I'm Miami I wouldn't draft any of Young, Thomas, Brown, or Okudah ahead of Lamb. At this point, he's the non-QB I'd most want, because he's the guy who will help your QB, which will help your wins and losses, more than any other player in the draft. The gap between QB and Lamb is huge, though, and Miami would probably have to use 1a to get him. I wouldn't consider him there unless Tua and Burrow are off the board, and I couldn't execute a trade down.

What I really like about this thread is that the Fins are somewhat of a blank canvas... They have none of the high priority positions solved. So in a way, every move Grier makes this off-season will be like a post in this thread, providing insight into what he believes is the right way to build a team.

Im not confident, while I understood what Joff meant last draft when the Fins picked Wilkins and he was somewhat disappointed by the position(not the player) they decided to get at that spot, Im now fully aware of how big a mistake it was. At the very least, if you're going to make a mistake by drafting inside trench at the top of the draft, by all means do it with an inside OL, not DL especially when the guy doesnt provide penetration problems for the offense.

Thank you for starting this thread, I'd much rather be talking about strategy than wandering on the main TBH.

I think the common thread here is Rd1 - overall Pick 5 must be an impact player. BPA. BPA at an impact position.
So if Tua healthy and available we should have a consensus pick.
If not... IMO first have to look at the other QBs but it’s possible to argue for one of the above impact guys.

 

[NBP81]

Not sure what to make of Gailey's hiring in terms of how it affects how they might go about building the offense.

The guy hasnt had an top half of the league effecient passing game since his he left the Fins, and likes to run a ton on 1st down.

He does run alot of 4 wide sets so that might push WRs up their needs, I also think they push OL up too... RB?

Im honestly baffled by the decision TBH...

 

[Danny]

Not sure what to make of Gailey's hiring in terms of how it affects how they might go about building the offense.

The guy hasnt had an top half of the league effecient passing game since his he left the Fins, and likes to run a ton on 1st down.

He does run alot of 4 wide sets so that might push WRs up their needs, I also think they push OL up too... RB?

Im honestly baffled by the decision TBH...

Why would you be baffled by anything this team does?

 

[FSU Truth]

Not sure what to make of Gailey's hiring in terms of how it affects how they might go about building the offense.

The guy hasnt had an top half of the league effecient passing game since his he left the Fins, and likes to run a ton on 1st down.

He does run alot of 4 wide sets so that might push WRs up their needs, I also think they push OL up too... RB?

Im honestly baffled by the decision TBH...

I do wonder what role he will have with Schulpiski. I wonder if Gailey is being brought in to work on the run game and run blocking concepts and Jerry (that last name is a pain in the ass) will run the passing game (passing game coordinator). If that is the case we may not see a lot change as far as passing game.

 

[NBP81]

Has anyone considered picking 2 QBs in this draft? Im not for or against this but I read the thread on the main about what would it take to trade up for Burrow. While it wont happen, at least I dont think it will, I got me to think about this question. If given the option of giving up 3x 1st round picks for the perceived best QB in the draft or using your 1a and 1b for drafting the 2nd and 3rd best perceived QBs in the draft, which option would you chose?

Now Im not saying Im even proposing they do this, just interested in what you guys think...

 

[SCOTTY]

Has anyone considered picking 2 QBs in this draft? Im not for or against this but I read the thread on the main about what would it take to trade up for Burrow. While it wont happen, at least I dont think it will, I got me to think about this question. If given the option of giving up 3x 1st round picks for the perceived best QB in the draft or using your 1a and 1b for drafting the 2nd and 3rd best perceived QBs in the draft, which option would you chose?

Now Im not saying Im even proposing they do this, just interested in what you guys think...

I have no problem doubling up. I want qbs on this team. I want us to carry 3 on the 53 next season.
After his performance against Utah I moved ehlinger up my list if he declares

 

[FSU Truth]

Has anyone considered picking 2 QBs in this draft? Im not for or against this but I read the thread on the main about what would it take to trade up for Burrow. While it wont happen, at least I dont think it will, I got me to think about this question. If given the option of giving up 3x 1st round picks for the perceived best QB in the draft or using your 1a and 1b for drafting the 2nd and 3rd best perceived QBs in the draft, which option would you chose?

Now Im not saying Im even proposing they do this, just interested in what you guys think...

I believe this is something that @Awsi Dooger has mentioned before. The QB position is such an important position to NFL success that taking more than 1 in round 1 would potentially be worth it.

Personally I would have ni issue drafting a player at five then another QB in round 2...perhaps Huntley.

 

[NBP81]

I believe this is something that @Awsi Dooger has mentioned before. The QB position is such an important position to NFL success that taking more than 1 in round 1 would potentially be worth it.

Personally I would have ni issue drafting a player at five then another QB in round 2...perhaps Huntley.

One of the things that make it interesting IMO, is that by picking 2 QBs, you improve your odds while still retaining the value of the QB who doesnt end up starting. Rosen recouped a 2nd after a horrible season, so IMO that would be the floor of the value of the guy who starts as a back up.

Fins are in a particular position that those 2 QBs could be Love and Tua and they'd still have a late 1st plus 2 seconds etc... In that scenario, Tua gets to sit while Love gets a shot.

Best case scenario here is Tua recovers and Love does good... In this case, they hit the jackpot, if Love does really good and Tua is 100%, Tua the guys worth actual GOLD. Actually both are woth Actual GOLD.

Worst case scenario, Tua doesnt recover and Love looks like Darnold... Which is also possible.

Really depends on the odds you assign to both these scenarios and everything that could happen in between. Just thought it might make for a good discussion.

Im inclined to think if you have 3x 1st round picks, I'd rather pick qb2 and qb3 and keep my 3rd 1s rounder. But in this particular case, Tua's health might not make the 'parley' profitable...

 

[SCOTTY]

One of the things that make it interesting IMO, is that by picking 2 QBs, you improve your odds while still retaining the value of the QB who doesnt end up starting. Rosen recouped a 2nd after a horrible season, so IMO that would be the floor of the value of the guy who starts as a back up.

Fins are in a particular position that those 2 QBs could be Love and Tua and they'd still have a late 1st plus 2 seconds etc... In that scenario, Tua gets to sit while Love gets a shot.

Best case scenario here is Tua recovers and Love does good... In this case, they hit the jackpot, if Love does really good and Tua is 100%, Tua the guys worth actual GOLD. Actually both are woth Actual GOLD.

Worst case scenario, Tua doesnt recover and Love looks like Darnold... Which is also possible.

Really depends on the odds you assign to both these scenarios and everything that could happen in between. Just thought it might make for a good discussion.

Im inclined to think if you have 3x 1st round picks, I'd rather pick qb2 and qb3 and keep my 3rd 1s rounder. But in this particular case, Tua's health might not make the 'parley' profitable...

If we double up on QB I don't want it to be two firsts. I'd rather 1 and late second early 3rd.

 

[NBP81]

If we double up on QB I don't want it to be two firsts. I'd rather 1 and late second early 3rd.

Like I said in my 1st post on the subject, this is only hypothetical...

 

[Smith21]

Considering we have 0 positions with 2 good players... Every position it available. I wouldn't be mad if we drafted 2 DE and a center in round 1 with 2 RB's in round 2. If we pick good football players our team will get better