Top 3 Backs Falling Past 11th Pick

NorthFinFan85

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I have read some recent posts about how Miami could trade with teams like Dallas who holds the 11th pick in the draft. It seems like most would consider dropping to 11 "safe" thinking that one of the RBs will be left and maybe even both Cadillac and Benson. Well, personally I do not think any of the top three RBs will be left by pick 11. It is hard to say of course because the Draft is so unpredictable... even supposed Draft guru Kiper has changed his board several times. In the latest, he now has Mike Williams going 1st instead of a QB or the other WR Edwards.
But anyway, to the point as to why I don't see Benson, Brown, or Caddy lasting until pick 11 if Miami did/does trade down. Cleveland, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Detroit are all teams in my mind that could take a RB in the draft:

I don't believe Cleveland is sold on Lee Suggs, although it does appear the Browns would draft a QB. Maybe Cleveland does not want to spend such a high draft pick on a QB again like they did Couch? Maybe they trade down to a team who could use a RB? Let's not consider QB a lock though...
Most of you would say Chicago would be the first team to draft a RB if Miami moved out of #2. That leaves 2 of the 3 premiere backs on the board, assuming Cleveland will not trade to a team/draft RB.
Tampa Bay is the one that really gets me, it seems to be taken that they will draft WR. Gruden seems to really like both Williams and Edwards but what if they are not there? It is quite possible with both Williams and Edwards projected to be gone by pick 3 according to Kiper of course.
Well, maybe you see both Benson and Cadillac still being left at pick 8 which is the Cards. RB is something Arizona certainly does need, but this depends on whether you see the Travis Henry trade working out or not. If it does not though, you can bet that 1 of the top 3 backs are now left.
The only team in our obstacle possibly is Detroit. If Washington, Minnesota, and Tennessee stay at their spots, it could be Detroit who trades down with both the CBs: Rolle and Jones off the board (Washington to replace Champ and the Titans to replace Rolle's brother Samari). The Vikings could take the LB Johnson which leaves Detriot's need players gone. So maybe Detroit trades down and someone else steals the last RB, or Detroit drafts the RB themselves out of best player available?
While I do think it would be some pretty poor luck for 1 of the 3 backs not to be left, I do think at least 2 of the 3 will be gone in Benson and Brown by pick 11. Having a choice between 2-3 RBs seems to be better than just 1, I don't know. If Miami could get away with gaining extra picks and still able to draft their guy it would be a heck of a trade and steal. The question is if you are a risk taker or not, and whether you consider Saban as wanting any of the 3?
 

hunter5nc1

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NorthFinFan85 said:
I have read some recent posts about how Miami could trade with teams like Dallas who holds the 11th pick in the draft. It seems like most would consider dropping to 11 "safe" thinking that one of the RBs will be left and maybe even both Cadillac and Benson. Well, personally I do not think any of the top three RBs will be left by pick 11. It is hard to say of course because the Draft is so unpredictable... even supposed Draft guru Kiper has changed his board several times. In the latest, he now has Mike Williams going 1st instead of a QB or the other WR Edwards.
But anyway, to the point as to why I don't see Benson, Brown, or Caddy lasting until pick 11 if Miami did/does trade down. Cleveland, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Detroit are all teams in my mind that could take a RB in the draft:

I don't believe Cleveland is sold on Lee Suggs, although it does appear the Browns would draft a QB. Maybe Cleveland does not want to spend such a high draft pick on a QB again like they did Couch? Maybe they trade down to a team who could use a RB? Let's not consider QB a lock though...
Most of you would say Chicago would be the first team to draft a RB if Miami moved out of #2. That leaves 2 of the 3 premiere backs on the board, assuming Cleveland will not trade to a team/draft RB.
Tampa Bay is the one that really gets me, it seems to be taken that they will draft WR. Gruden seems to really like both Williams and Edwards but what if they are not there? It is quite possible with both Williams and Edwards projected to be gone by pick 3 according to Kiper of course.
Well, maybe you see both Benson and Cadillac still being left at pick 8 which is the Cards. RB is something Arizona certainly does need, but this depends on whether you see the Travis Henry trade working out or not. If it does not though, you can bet that 1 of the top 3 backs are now left.
The only team in our obstacle possibly is Detroit. If Washington, Minnesota, and Tennessee stay at their spots, it could be Detroit who trades down with both the CBs: Rolle and Jones off the board (Washington to replace Champ and the Titans to replace Rolle's brother Samari). The Vikings could take the LB Johnson which leaves Detriot's need players gone. So maybe Detroit trades down and someone else steals the last RB, or Detroit drafts the RB themselves out of best player available?
While I do think it would be some pretty poor luck for 1 of the 3 backs not to be left, I do think at least 2 of the 3 will be gone in Benson and Brown by pick 11. Having a choice between 2-3 RBs seems to be better than just 1, I don't know. If Miami could get away with gaining extra picks and still able to draft their guy it would be a heck of a trade and steal. The question is if you are a risk taker or not, and whether you consider Saban as wanting any of the 3?

nice thread
 

Lazy1

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Even if we miss out of the big 3 i don't think its a big deal. If traded out and got the 11th and 20th... be could pick a guy like Fason with the 20th or the 2nd rounder if we get one from KC. At 11 we could get BPA, this RB class is talented even with the 2nd tier guys.
 

Roman529

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Benson and Brown will gone by the #11 pick...I think Caddie will also be picked by then.....I'd rather go after a QB if we happen to pick 11th....I just heard Saban is doing a pre-draft news conference Thursday at 4:30 PM??
 

NorthFloridaFin

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It would be hard pressed for one of the Top 3 backs to be left at the 11th pick. Some team is going to trade up to snatch one of them up. I'm going to guess it will be Carolina. Stephen Davis is on his last leg, and Deshaun Foster can't stay healthy for an entire season. If we trade out of the #2 slot, I believe Coach Saban is going to go defense in the first round.
 

Surferosa

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Good thread. This is an idea Ive thought about a lot. However, I came the to the exact opositte conclusion - If we move down to #11 or 12, one of the top 3 backs should fall out of the top 10. Heres my personal assessment of the top 12 teams drafting and the likelihood of each to take a RB:

I. Will NOT draft a RB

A. San Fransisco (#1). With the first pick, they simply cannot afford to take a RB. Enough said.

B. Cleveland (#3). The Browns just traded for Rueben Droughns to compete with Lee Suggs, so I would be shocked if they picked a RB at #3. Dont be fooled - they will not enter the season with Dilfer and Luke Mccown as their starting QB's.

C. Chicago (#4). The Bears got great production out of Thomas Jones before Rex Grossman was injured last year. I am expecting them to take a WR to help Grossman's maturation process (especially since Mushin Muhhammed is over 30). Ive seen Benson go here, but I dont think its realisitc as long as a big play WR is a available. The Bears havent had a dominant vertical passing game in years, and they need to start giving Grossman some legitimate weapons.

D. Tennessee (#6). The Titans defense was awful last year, and now they lost both Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson. They cannot afford to select a RB with all the holes on defense from the salary cap purge. In contrast, their offense played very well last year. And Chris Brown, when healthy, is a very good back.

E. Redskins (#9). They have Portis and wont draft a RB.

F. Lions (#10). They have Kevin Jones and wont draft a RB.

G. Cowboys (#11) They have Julius Jones and wont draft a RB.


II. May Take a RB - The Wildcards

H. Minnesota (#7). They Vikes may take a RB if either Benson/Brown/Caddy is head and shoulders the BPA on their draft board. They already loaded up on defense in FA. If the top two WR's are off the board, and they decide against trading up, they could surprise and take a RB.

I. Arizona (#8). If the Cards sign Henry, they will be out of the RB derby. If not, these guys are prime candidates to take a RB.


III. WILL take a RB

J. Tampa Bay This is the only team in the top 12 that clearly needs a RB. With no signs of trading for Edge, SA, Bennett, etc, they seem like a lock to take one of Caddy/Brown/Benson. Plus, they just drafted Clayton last season, I dont see them picking another WR in round one.

So, further to you intial question, this is how I see the draft unfolding in the event we moved down to either #11 (Dallas) or #12 (San Diego):

1) SF - Aaron Rodgers (or Smith)
2) San Diego (from Miami)- Braylon Edwards
3) Cleveland - Alex Smith (or Rodgers)
4) Chicago - Mike Williams
5) Tampa Bay - Ronnie Brown
6) Tennesse - Antrel Rolle
7) Minnesota - Cedric Benson. I can see them taking a RB if the draft pans out like this.
8) Arizona - Pac Man Jones (to replace Duane Starks)
9) Washington - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson
10) Detroit - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson
11) Dallas - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson/Alex Barron
12) Miami (from SD) - Cadillac Williams

The problem with this asessment, of course, is that any of the teams drafting above us can trade the pick to a team that needs a RB. Still, its a short snapshot of how things might happen if we find a trade partner.
 

Dolfan2788

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Good post Surf, Cadillac Anderson though?

I don't see Minny taking a RB, they already have Bennett(spelling), Onterrio Smith and Moore, all fairly young backs with promise. I see the Cardinals taking a back unless they pick PacMan and then they make a draft day trade for Henry.
 

finsnchips

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Surf... you make some great points.

But I think Tampa wants Mike Williams.
 

Dolfan2788

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finsnchips said:
Surf... you make some great points.

But I think Tampa wants Mike Williams.
Only Gruden and their FO would know who they are going to pick out of Caddy and Williams at this point in time. Gruden said he loves Caddy and would love to pick him up in the draft but then he goes on to say he loves MW also and Williams a few times has been quoted as saying that Tampa is going to pick him so...
 

finsnchips

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Dolfan2788 said:
Only Gruden and their FO would know who they are going to pick out of Caddy and Williams at this point in time. Gruden said he loves Caddy and would love to pick him up in the draft but then he goes on to say he loves MW also and Williams a few times has been quoted as saying that Tampa is going to pick him so...
true... everyone is smokescreening. All the head coaches and GMs are keeping their cards very close to their chests.

The 49ers are all over Braylon and Rodgers, but it wouldn't suprise me if they went for Smith, even though I think Rodgers is their choice.

We're sandbagging... there I times that I think we're going Ronnie, and others when I think that Smith makes sense. Edwards name, unfortuantely, is always in the mix.

Who knows what Cleveland wants to do... They should go Smith if Rodgers and Brown are gone, but they could change the whole draft and select Derrick Johnson at #3.

This is why I love the three weeks before the draft... and this year is the best in a while, because normally by now the first few picks are obvious... not so this year. Thats why it's so hard to do, and why there are so many variations in people mock drafts.
 

10and6orbust

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so many possibilities...god i love the draft

here's my prediction on the top half of the first round

1. sf - (a smith) - they have to go qb
2. min - (b edwards) - trade up - wr seems to be their only glaring hole,
they're set at rb w/ smith,moore,williams,etc, plus they have the pick
3. cle - (a rodgers) - same as san fran
4. chi - (a rolle / d johnson / m williams) - i think chicago has more leverage
here than we do with the 2nd overall
5. tb - (caddy / m williams) - i wouldn't be surprised to see them trade up
one spot with chicago to make sure they get williams if they really like him
that much
6. ten - (???) - i definitely see them trading down for more picks because
they have so many needs including corner, d-line, wr, etc
7. mia - (r brown) - would be friggin awsome if we could trade down with
minny and still get our man and another pick out of the deal
8. ari - (pac man) - they need a corner bad
9. was - (e james / possibly a corner) - need d-end help, but they lost smoot
10. det - (one of the cody's / too high to take an ilb) - go with a d-end
11. dal - (d johnson / s merriman / o-line) - need a parcell's linebacker
12. sd - (t williamson / m clayton) they can stay put and still get a top 3 wr

* as you can see, benson and possibly caddy haven't aven been taken yet!!!
 

10and6orbust

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...3 points

- i left out under minnesota that they also have the 18th pick in the first
- i'm assuming arizona completes the henry trade
- i wouldn't be surprised if washington traded up with us to get rodgers or smith
 
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