Top 3 Backs Falling Past 11th Pick

[dolphingator]

You people are outthinking yourselves. There are 3 letters that just blow all this speculation out of the water:

B P A

EVERY team in the Top 10 will draft on that basis- Best Athlete, REGARDLESS of comparative need. They all will look at who is left and how they rank. There is very little difference in how each team views individual players, they all all pretty much know by now what the talent level is. The only separating factor is an intangible like "intelligence" such as an Alex Smith.

Do NOT count on any of the 3 RB's being there by pick #11. All 3 are regarded as the best, safest talents in this draft.

I am absolutely NOT of the belief that this team will trade down. We have GOT to get a top 5 talent on Offense, at QB or RB. Saban is using the misdirection play to perfection here.

 

[burger13]

I am of the belief that at least one of the top backs will fall into the late teems or 20's........last year is a perfect example of this.

When Detroit passed on Stephen Jackson at #6, it started a domino effect with the RB's with each possible suitor for a top RB seeing all of the guys fall and thinking that with the depth of the class (Jackson ,K.Jones, J.Jones, Perry, Bell) they could get their guy later on. Detroit passed and still was able to get Jones by trading up into the first.

Look for the Bucs to possibly follow a similar path if we were to trade out of the #2 OR pass on a RB with the pick. They have the amunition to trade back into the first with two 3rd round picks this year.

My prediction - if we don't take a back at #2......they start to fall into the middle of the round with at least one dropping into the 20's.

 

[One4theThumb]

cleavland just got droughsn and detroit jsut drafted kevin jone sin the 1st rond last year. the bucs could take one but pittman is good. and the bears have thomas jones, who is excellent. what are u talking about? ?????? :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

 

[Surferosa]

I am of the belief that at least one of the top backs will fall into the late teems or 20's........last year is a perfect example of this.

When Detroit passed on Stephen Jackson at #6, it started a domino effect with the RB's with each possible suitor for a top RB seeing all of the guys fall and thinking that with the depth of the class (Jackson ,K.Jones, J.Jones, Perry, Bell) they could get their guy later on. Detroit passed and still was able to get Jones by trading up into the first.

Look for the Bucs to possibly follow a similar path if we were to trade out of the #2 OR pass on a RB with the pick. They have the amunition to trade back into the first with two 3rd round picks this year.

My prediction - if we don't take a back at #2......they start to fall into the middle of the round with at least one dropping into the 20's.

Good info here. Stephen Jackson is a prime example of a RB value on draft day.

 

[dolphingator]

I am of the belief that at least one of the top backs will fall into the late teems or 20's........last year is a perfect example of this.

When Detroit passed on Stephen Jackson at #6, it started a domino effect with the RB's with each possible suitor for a top RB seeing all of the guys fall and thinking that with the depth of the class (Jackson ,K.Jones, J.Jones, Perry, Bell) they could get their guy later on. Detroit passed and still was able to get Jones by trading up into the first.

All of this year's Top 3 RBs are worlds better than any of those guys. Last year was the worst RB class imaginable.

The teams w/o needs at RB will still take a guy like the Top 3, and let 'em fight it out for PT. You can never have enough good RBs.

 

[larfo2224]

Good Post. Very well thought out and informative. The only problem with trading down is finding a team that is willing to give the appropriate compensation and this year, I really do not see it happening.

 

[CRAZYDOLFAN305]

I just wish we can find a way to draft Adrian Mcpherson, I think he's the best Qb in the draft..

 

[Pericles349]

Good thread. This is an idea Ive thought about a lot. However, I came the to the exact opositte conclusion - If we move down to #11 or 12, one of the top 3 backs should fall out of the top 10. Heres my personal assessment of the top 12 teams drafting and the likelihood of each to take a RB:

I. Will NOT draft a RB

A. San Fransisco (#1). With the first pick, they simply cannot afford to take a RB. Enough said.

B. Cleveland (#3). The Browns just traded for Rueben Droughns to compete with Lee Suggs, so I would be shocked if they picked a RB at #3. Dont be fooled - they will not enter the season with Dilfer and Luke Mccown as their starting QB's.

C. Chicago (#4). The Bears got great production out of Thomas Jones before Rex Grossman was injured last year. I am expecting them to take a WR to help Grossman's maturation process (especially since Mushin Muhhammed is over 30). Ive seen Benson go here, but I dont think its realisitc as long as a big play WR is a available. The Bears havent had a dominant vertical passing game in years, and they need to start giving Grossman some legitimate weapons.

D. Tennessee (#6). The Titans defense was awful last year, and now they lost both Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson. They cannot afford to select a RB with all the holes on defense from the salary cap purge. In contrast, their offense played very well last year. And Chris Brown, when healthy, is a very good back.

E. Redskins (#9). They have Portis and wont draft a RB.

F. Lions (#10). They have Kevin Jones and wont draft a RB.

G. Cowboys (#11) They have Julius Jones and wont draft a RB.


II. May Take a RB - The Wildcards

H. Minnesota (#7). They Vikes may take a RB if either Benson/Brown/Caddy is head and shoulders the BPA on their draft board. They already loaded up on defense in FA. If the top two WR's are off the board, and they decide against trading up, they could surprise and take a RB.

I. Arizona (#8). If the Cards sign Henry, they will be out of the RB derby. If not, these guys are prime candidates to take a RB.


III. WILL take a RB

J. Tampa Bay This is the only team in the top 12 that clearly needs a RB. With no signs of trading for Edge, SA, Bennett, etc, they seem like a lock to take one of Caddy/Brown/Benson. Plus, they just drafted Clayton last season, I dont see them picking another WR in round one.

So, further to you intial question, this is how I see the draft unfolding in the event we moved down to either #11 (Dallas) or #12 (San Diego):

1) SF - Aaron Rodgers (or Smith)
2) San Diego (from Miami)- Braylon Edwards
3) Cleveland - Alex Smith (or Rodgers)
4) Chicago - Mike Williams
5) Tampa Bay - Ronnie Brown
6) Tennesse - Antrel Rolle
7) Minnesota - Cedric Benson. I can see them taking a RB if the draft pans out like this.
8) Arizona - Pac Man Jones (to replace Duane Starks)
9) Washington - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson
10) Detroit - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson
11) Dallas - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson/Alex Barron
12) Miami (from SD) - Cadillac Williams

The problem with this asessment, of course, is that any of the teams drafting above us can trade the pick to a team that needs a RB. Still, its a short snapshot of how things might happen if we find a trade partner.

Great post! I agree.

 

[dominizzo]

cleavland just got droughsn and detroit jsut drafted kevin jone sin the 1st rond last year. the bucs could take one but pittman is good. and the bears have thomas jones, who is excellent. what are u talking about? ?????? :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

:roflmao: :roflmao:
learn how to spell buddy