Prestar Attencion!!
I never compared Hill to St. Brown. I commented on your “players like Waddle don’t grow on trees”. Ironically, same draft as Waddle, the Lions picked a player in St. Brown in the 4th round who is just as good as Waddle and the Lions didn’t have to include a future 1st round draft pick.
PS, thanks for bringing Hill’s name into the conversation, as he was a 5th round pick. I did a little research and here is the following list of some of the NFL’s top Wr’s and what round they were taken.
Adams 2nd round
Diggs 5th round
AJ Brown 2nd round
Kupp. 3rd round
Samuel 2nd round
Hill 5th round
St. Brown 4th round
McLaurin 3rd round
Metcalf 2nd round
Collin’s 3rd round
Nacua 5th round
Pickens 2nd round
Apparently a lot of other GM’s can find Waddle type of players falling off trees
but our GM is the only one that can’t and has to pay up for 2 (Waddle & Hill) and include future first rounders!!
Adams- in 2014, there were 8 WRS taken before Adam's. 2 can be argued are Waddle equivalent. Mike Evans and possibly O'Dell Beckhham JR. Out of the top 10, only 4 if you include Brandin Cook's are considered good to great. 4/10 is not a high success rate.
Steffon Diggs- 18 WRS were taken before Diggs. Out of those 18, only Amari Cooper and Tyler Locket would you consider comparable. 3/18 is not a high success rate
AJ Brown- 3 WRS taken before Brown
Depending your opinion of Deebo, determine whether the was 1/4 or 2/4. I say 1/4 personally. But to give you the benefit I'll say 2/4.
Just those 3 alone, 8 out of 32 WRS taken amounted to pretty good status. 25% is not a high success rate so far.
Cooper Kupp- 6 WRS taken before Cupp, with the best one being Ju Ju.
Man this draft class was 1/7.
We are now at 9/39
Deebo samuel- we discussed. 0/2 on WRS drafted before him.
Tyreke Hill- 17 WRS drafted before him. Michael Thomas at 47, Tyler Boyd at 55 are the only notable WRS of that draft class prior to Hills selection. So that's 3/18.
Our total is now 12/57
Amon ra st Brown- 16 WRS taken before him. This was arguably the best draft class of all those mentioned
Waddle/ Chase/ d. Smith/ Nicole Collins.
Including Brown, this 5/17.
Total now at 17/74
Mclaurin- great class. This includes Metcalf and Deebo. Since those #'s are factored In for AJ Brown, I will focus on WRS taken between brown and McLaurin.
2/6 including Metcalf.
Total is now 19/80.
Puka.Nakua? Too early to tell, but guys like Reed and Flowers may be on the list.
I am not doing Pickens. Not sure why he would even be listed as Waddle like.
So, with your examples.
By the time those WRS were drafted, the success rate of getting a Waddle like WR, being generous was 19/80 or 23%
Or in other words, 61 times, out of 80, a GM thought they were getting a Waddle, but got a dude.
23% lines more with the they don't grow on trees narrative.
Or again, GMS had a 77% fail rate on trying to get that gem Wr
Sure, you can find the diamond in the rough, but it's not easy. There's a reason there's only so many WRS taken after mid 2nd round can be listed on our list.