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Trading down odds?

inFINSible said:
As much as I'd like this to be an opinion thread only, I have a question for those who want Minnesota's 7 and 18 picks....If you were in Minnesota's shoes, would you give up the 7 and 18 picks for the second pick?
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1. Yes.

2. Yes.

3. To answer the question above: While I would love this trade as a Phin fan, Im not sure I would do it if I were the Vikes - especially with the possibility that Mike Williams is on the board at #7.

However, if I were the Chargers, who also have two #1's and need a bigtime WR, I would definitely consider moving up, for four reasons:

1) There is almost no chance that one of the top 2 WR's will be on the board at #12 when they pick.
2) This draft is relatively weak at the end of round one, so their #28 pick may not have as much value as in past drafts. This would make the Chargers more willing to part with the pick.
3) The draft is deepest at QB and RB, not exactly two areas of need for the Chargers
4) They still hold the Philip Rivers card so they shouldnt feel like trading up will rob them of their future. They can cash in on Rivers at a later date to make up for some of the picks that they trade away.

If I were the Chargers, I would consider trading the #12 and #28 for the #2, with the two teams haggling over additional mid/late/future picks as well (to be awarded to Miami). For the Phins, I would make the trade because I still think we can land a top 3 RB's at #12. If not, we should still be able to draft someone from the group of Barron, Derrick Johnson, Merriman or Marcus Spears.

4. 30-35%. I really think a deal could get done. IMO no team wants to trade into the top spot due to the signing bonus and inflated expectations involved in trading for the #1 pick. Still, I can see several teams fighting to move into spots 2-4 to select one of the two WR's. That, combined with the fact that there are several teams with multiple #1's makes a trade down a real possibility. It wont be easy, but its certainly doable.
 
inFINSible said:
In your opinion....

1) Does Saban want to do it?
2) Do you want to do it?
3) How will we do it?
4) Odds that it will happen?
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1. IMO yes. He knows we have a shortage of picks and have already lost a #2 and #3 this year.

2. Yes. There are still a lot of holes on this roster and the best way to fill them is with multiple picks. I don't see how 1 player at the top of this draft will do that.

3. It all depends on the 49ers. If they take one of the top 2 QB's or WR's and another team (Vikings) really wants the other guy, they may make a move to get him. I think this is part of the reason Saban is keeping everyone guessing about who he wants to take with the #2.

4. 25%
 
Saban is holding our for KC's 2nd round pick to trade it to Seattle for Alexander.....that will allow Miami to trade down out of the #2 spot for additional picks.
 
we could do this
1. Cadillac Williams (from Vikes)
1. Mike Williams(from Vikes)
2. Ernest Shazor(Surtain deal)
3. Walters
4. Courtney Roby
 
Keep in mind that if the Cardnials trade for Travis Henry, its VERY possible that one of the top three backs will drop outside of the top 10. Of the top 12 picks, only TB has a glaring need for a RB. TENN and MINN are less likely options, but may take a RB as the BPA. Still the odds of both teams selecting RB’s are slim.

If the Henry deal goes through, I would be even more inclined to trade with the Chargers for the #12 & 28 and additional mid/late/future picks.
 
Doktor Ivel said:
we could do this
1. Cadillac Williams (from Vikes)
1. Mike Williams(from Vikes)
2. Ernest Shazor(Surtain deal)
3. Walters
4. Courtney Roby
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I don't think there's any way in hell Mike Williams drops that far IMO
 
Doktor Ivel said:
we could do this
1. Cadillac Williams (from Vikes)
1. Mike Williams(from Vikes)
2. Ernest Shazor(Surtain deal)
3. Walters
4. Courtney Roby
Click to expand...

That's the reason the Vikings want to move up...
 
That is why we need to make sure that we don't give up Surtain for anything less than a 2nd round pick...if we get KC's 2nd, then we don't have to necessarily trade down...take Ronnie Brown with the 2nd pick, if we "need" to pick a QB I would risk a 2nd rounder on Adrian McPherson.....he's money.....if we can't get a 2nd rounder from KC then trade down for multiple picks.:)
 
Doktor Ivel said:
we could do this
1. Cadillac Williams (from Vikes)
1. Mike Williams(from Vikes)
2. Ernest Shazor(Surtain deal)
3. Walters
4. Courtney Roby
Click to expand...

How are we going to get Mike Williams at #18 if the Vikings are trading up so they can get him at #2?
 
painnotpleasure said:
How are we going to get Mike Williams at #18 if the Vikings are trading up so they can get him at #2?
Click to expand...

:lol:
 
inFINSible said:
In your opinion....

1) Does Saban want to do it?
2) Do you want to do it?
3) How will we do it?
4) Odds that it will happen?
_________________________________________________________________
Click to expand...
1. Of course he does.
2. Of course I do.
3. He will pray on his hands and knees every night up until draft day that some other team will be dumb enough to trade up.
4. 1000 to 1
 
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