Interesting thoughts so far guys. A couple quick clarifications...
#1
The term
"market value" essentially refers to the auction price of a commodity going to the highest bidder--what a "market" decides it will pay for a product based on it's value (of which there are multiple types: practical, psychological, monetary, social, etc.) as well as it's scarcity.
#2
An auction is not a great analogy for the hiring process. Thankfully, employees are not auctioned off to the highest bidder here in the United States of Freedom.
Confusing a negotiation with an auction is a mistake. The highest bidder is not assured to win Tua's favor.
#3
It's important to keep in mind that applicants compare and evaluate employment offers based on a lot more than just base salary. Location is important for normal folks but maybe more universal is the likelihood of future success, the accomplishment of future goals and the ability one has to ensure the quality of people they'll be surrounded with.
These are all important factors because they'll determine the size of the
next contract!
Miami should have
huge advantages in this area in both coaching and system. Thus the Dolphins shouldn't have to come in as the highest bidder. There's a whole network of coaches, players and plays already in place in Miami making the Dolphins a much more comfortable offense compared with virtually anyone else in the NFL.
No other team has this kind of Tua-friendly offense already in place and ready to go. Presumably the relationship between Tua and McDaniel is also a positive one. And that's all not to mention that Tua already lives in Miami and I'm sure he places some (comparatively small) value on not having to uproot his family if he doesn't absolutely have to.
#4
It's also worth pointing out that there's no "market" until
January 2025 when Tua formally hits FA.
Up to that point, any deal negotiated between Tua and the Dolphins is entirely dependent on the two sides coming together to "make up" a price that works for both of them
before any other offers come into the picture.
Hopefully this all convinces you that terms like "market value" maybe aren't the best ones for this negotiation.
In the end, it's really in both parties best interest to get a deal done and that's probably the biggest reason to believe that it'll happen and that both sides will be flexible. Tua won't be too stubborn but the Dolphins won't flinch at the price either. He wants a strong infrastructure and they want a reliable QB.
Getting a deal done now (as opposed to 2025) actually ensures Miami will pay slightly less--so that should make the fans happy, too. Getting something done now has value for Tua as opposed to the Dolphins making him wait. Of course it's also true that not only will Tua take less today versus some amount he's forced to wait on but also, the Dolphins will have less negotiating power when Tua gets to formally negotiate with other teams in 2025.