What the Bills woke up to and what the NFL fans will wake to is that
Josh Allen is a running QB.
I don't mean he
can run. I mean that he is a
running QB. He would not be a long-term QB if he couldn't run.
These are his ratings by year:
I'm sorry, but that's Matt Ryan / Ryan Tannehill efficiency and that's not impressive anyone.
These are his rushing totals:
He's a running QB and he needs to be understood in that way. Russell
Wilson was a runner. Jalen
Hurts is a runner. They don't posses the ability to carry a team as a purely pocket-based passer. They require a team that is strong independent of them and an offense which doesn't explicitly
need but can benefit greatly from their mobility.
Josh
Allen dominates the AFC East. I don't know how long he'll last being a runner but presumably he'll be producing well for another few years and a thorn in our side until he retires--or until we field a defense that can slow down mobile QBs.
Keep in mind we've historically given running QBs career days: Josh
Allen, Lamar
Jackson, Justin
Fields...they all ran wild on our Defense.
The lesson for us when evaluating Tua is that whatever he does, it'd better be something we can win with.
> Pat Mahomes is perfect. That's how he wins.
> Joe Burrow goes on the road and plays the most clutch football ever. That's how he wins.
Running QBs do it by being unstoppable for some short during, usually a great season during which their team is brutally over-powered: Colin
Kaepernick on the '12 49ers, Russell
Wilson on the '13 and '14 Seahawks, Cam
Newton on the '15 Panthers, Jalen
Hurts on the '22 Eagles. Josh
Allen and Lamar
Jackson would've both made Super Bowl appearances, too, had it not been for Pat Mahomes--who again--is the perfect QB on the perfect team.
So among that list:
> 4 of those guys got to the Super Bowl.
> 1 won it.
> 2 more were a FG away from winning it.
> The two who didn't make it could've easily had it not been for the greatest ever.
The question for
Tua is what makes him special? What can he do and what offense can he be a part of that'll dominate the NFL and beat even the best competition in the toughest environments?
I'm not talking about beating up on some rookie CB in the Baltimore secondary either. I'm not talking about the '22 Bears or '22 Lions. I'm not talking about winning an Opening Day shootout or putting up 70 on Denver.
Can he go on the road like Pat Mahomes and Joe Burrow and beat other Division Champions in front of their screaming fans? Does he have that upside?
Can he at least start winning his Division?
In 5-years as the full-time starter Lamar
Jackson has 2 Division Titles, 1 Playoff win at home and 1 Playoff win on the road against the AFC South Champs. While that's not the most utterly amazing record, it is more than respectable and he also has 2 individual NFL MVP awards to his credit which makes him easy to sell to the fans.
Just as a point of comparison >> in 4-years as an NFL starter
Tua has 0 Division Titles. His team has finished 2nd and 3rd in each season. He has 1 Playoff appearance--a blowout loss. He is unlikely to ever get something like an NFL MVP. And he certainly doesn't possess the outrageous physical abilities of the NFL's more imposing QBs.
I think it's fine to support whoever you want but at some point you have to make a case for how
Tua is going to win. Nothing he's done to this point has made that happen and he's not a Cam Newton type of physical freak that might suddenly lead a team to 15-1 behind an NFL MVP season.
It's not on anyone to refute
Tua. It's on him to prove he's the guy. And to his credit, he's been far from bad. But it's still on his advocates to paint a convincing picture of what kind of success we'll get that we haven't yet. How is
Tua going to go toe-to-toe with the best in the AFC?
We've got 1 who's perfect (
Mahomes), 1 who's clutch as heck (
Burrow), 2 more that are physical freaks (
Allen &
Jackson), 1 young buck making a name for himself (
Stroud), 1 with all the physical ability in the world (
Herbert) and a bunch of teams who are going to keep drafting in the next couple years.
Nobody thinks
Tua is bad but it's getting pretty hard to imagine the Dolphins ever reaching the pinnacle of the AFC continuing with what they're doing now which (no offense) seems to sputter out somewhere around November before being frustratingly unreliable in December and utterly irrelevant in January.