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Tua Tale of the Tape

Really us fans just need to root for this kid to succeed. I think some fall into the trap of wanting to be right about their assessment this guy doesn't have the goods to succeed at this level. Give him a decent offense to work worth, then draw your conclusions on his career trajectory. He's in a fins uniform, making rookie contract money, no reason for fin fans to hate
I'm not really a Tua fan, but I'm also not a hater. He has made some deep throws, but due to the o-line and poor playcalling/coaching, he hasn't had many chances to do so. It would be nice to see him make opposing secondaries afraid to face the Fins! However, if it turns out that Tua is nothing but a short pass system QB, then IMO he's useless. The top teams in the league are able to score a LOT of points, so Miami needs to be able to do the same. This means that they need to have the ability to gain yards in big chunks and score quickly; dink-and-dunk won't win any shoot-outs against Buffalo or KC.
 
Good article, the bad OL and run game has been hammered to death but I believe most stats have shown that Tua lacks arm strength which he worked on during the off season. He overcomes this with accuracy, pocket presence and competitiveness.
 
The article does a nice job presenting data. It's not all roses with Tua I think everyone knows this.

Couple key points here that were glossed over. Miami's line was beyond horrible (funny side note, in my phone when I now type the words "Miami's line was" the autosuggestion adds the word horrible). Tua also had the quickest read to throw time suggesting the short passing game was the plan.

Yeah as several other have said the breakouts aren't good in some cases for Tua. Especially concerning to me his the inaccuracies over the middle in the 10 to 20 yards range. Those are bread and butter plays that need to be made.

I think Rowdy from Days Of Thunder sums it up best "now get your own car and see how he does in a crowd" meaning the line needs to perform then we can see how the rest develops because no QB had as terrible a line as Tua last year.
 
I'm not really a Tua fan, but I'm also not a hater. He has made some deep throws, but due to the o-line and poor playcalling/coaching, he hasn't had many chances to do so. It would be nice to see him make opposing secondaries afraid to face the Fins! However, if it turns out that Tua is nothing but a short pass system QB, then IMO he's useless. The top teams in the league are able to score a LOT of points, so Miami needs to be able to do the same. This means that they need to have the ability to gain yards in big chunks and score quickly; dink-and-dunk won't win any shoot-outs against Buffalo or KC.
The "ability to gain yards in big chunks" doesn't always correlate to throwing deep passes. As an example, look up who led the nil in passes behind the los to 10 yds. Hint: a lot of them were to Tyreke Hill.
 
I disagree with that narrative that because Tua has better weapons his job is much easier, I believe it takes more talent to facilitate to those talented skill players.

You have to anticipate differently, a higher level, you have to place and position the ball differently with higher level players, that takes more talent.

Your skills have to keep up with their skills

Playing Qb isn’t just about throwing into tight windows..

Try throwing a ball accurately to a 4.3 guy rather than a less talented slower guy.
 
The article does a nice job presenting data. It's not all roses with Tua I think everyone knows this.

Couple key points here that were glossed over. Miami's line was beyond horrible (funny side note, in my phone when I now type the words "Miami's line was" the autosuggestion adds the word horrible). Tua also had the quickest read to throw time suggesting the short passing game was the plan.

Yeah as several other have said the breakouts aren't good in some cases for Tua. Especially concerning to me his the inaccuracies over the middle in the 10 to 20 yards range. Those are bread and butter plays that need to be made.

I think Rowdy from Days Of Thunder sums it up best "now get your own car and see how he does in a crowd" meaning the line needs to perform then we can see how the rest develops because no QB had as terrible a line as Tua last year.
There’s some variables that the article does not address. Football is too nuanced a sport to be able to look at stats in a vacuum like most, including thus article, do. You can just tweak the stats to look at passes 10 to 20 yards and see what they say. However, They don’t tell you how often the defense had a single high look vs 2 deep. I’m betting they dropped 2 safeties almost all the time to take away those passes relegating us to playing in a box. That’s what I’d do especially with only one real yac threat on the roster and no home run threat in the backfield. How often did they drop 7 or even 8? How often were we in max protect with 2 or 3 man routes? All of these matter and would need to be taken into consideration moreso than just what Tua’s stats were in each part of the field especially when talking about progression reads and intermediate to deep passing. that’s where the questions are and unfortunately, without a more complete deep dive with film, none of these analytical articles can tell us anything of true value.
 
I'm not really a Tua fan, but I'm also not a hater. He has made some deep throws, but due to the o-line and poor playcalling/coaching, he hasn't had many chances to do so. It would be nice to see him make opposing secondaries afraid to face the Fins! However, if it turns out that Tua is nothing but a short pass system QB, then IMO he's useless. The top teams in the league are able to score a LOT of points, so Miami needs to be able to do the same. This means that they need to have the ability to gain yards in big chunks and score quickly; dink-and-dunk won't win any shoot-outs against Buffalo or KC.
For sure, if you're offense is operating within a 15yd deep box, you'll get exposed, we saw that with Pennington in playoffs vs ravens for example. I will be looking for the offense to take a big step forward this coming season, which mostly hinges on Tua's performance. He wasn't a #1 qb prospect due to his dink and dunk expertise. And we certainly shouldn't settle for that if it turns out that's what he is. I tend to agree with his comp being Brees, who didn't have the strongest arm, but was very capable of attacking 20+yds down the field. I'm with you on the desire to see this team strike fear in opposing defenses, we've been enduring offensive ineptitude for far too long...
 
Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

View attachment 105289

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

View attachment 105290

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.
3 on 6 Under pressure, and Tua is still looking down field! Got to like what Cam Jordan said, He has been hit and stays calm!
 
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Interesting read.


As the article points out....

So we're stuck in the sort of circular argument that breeds fan theories and encourages sports talk debate, informed and otherwise.

Fan theories are already bred through this forum alone just imagine the sportscenter theories, the florio theories, simms theories, and etc. It all boils down to us having good players in this offense and at the end of the day and we didn't. Parker wasn't doing squat for us, Waddle was the focal point of the offense, and the rest everyone in here knows.
 
The article does a nice job presenting data. It's not all roses with Tua I think everyone knows this.

Couple key points here that were glossed over. Miami's line was beyond horrible (funny side note, in my phone when I now type the words "Miami's line was" the autosuggestion adds the word horrible). Tua also had the quickest read to throw time suggesting the short passing game was the plan.

Yeah as several other have said the breakouts aren't good in some cases for Tua. Especially concerning to me his the inaccuracies over the middle in the 10 to 20 yards range. Those are bread and butter plays that need to be made.

I think Rowdy from Days Of Thunder sums it up best "now get your own car and see how he does in a crowd" meaning the line needs to perform then we can see how the rest develops because no QB had as terrible a line as Tua last year.
As I recall, most of those inaccuracies were when he was just after his "recovering" from a hand injury. It was clear to me he was having trouble with gripping the football.
 
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