Tua's Next. Be prepared.

[The Goat]

I agree with almost everything you stated except for the peak age, I think you’re off a couple years. I think 27, is when athletes peak and as you stated, maintain that level for a number of years. When they reach 30, they start their decline.

I would suggest that training methods have extended that window by a couple years over the past decade or two.

 

[The Goat]

Also, I can’t believe the reaction to me questioning asparagus. You’re all monsters.

 

[andyahs]

CKparrot thought Ryan Mallet and Brandon Weeden were franchise quarterbacks. At the end of the day Tua is small, injury prone, un athletic and has maybe the worst arm in the league.

All the I hate Tua talking points in one post.

 

[The Goat]

I see people are upset with this post. I will try to ask honestly: "Seriously, what do you think the trajectory is for physical growth and improvement?"

See in a sport like say baseball you peak at or before the age of 25... You stay at or close to that level for a handful of years and then you start to decline... The decline accelerates as you pass the age of 30... (It is not so very different in football.) Bill James studied baseball statistics and looked at the age of the players and noticed a correlation between career numbers and ages at or less than 25 years old. Tens of thousands of players over a 100 year span... The sample size is enormous and the data is undeniable.

Without looking deep into this (I enjoy a good debate, but I am also lazy) There has to be studies like this for football as well.

Now it has happened that players in baseball got better later in life... It was not physical for these guys... It was mental


So if you argued that Tua's mental maturity could improve slightly... I would listen to that argument. (It might not be a great argument, but I would listen)

But if we are talking about physical ability or Physical performance. There comes a point in football like baseball where physically players peak and then start to decline.

Tua has been in the league for 5 years now. I know he was not the starter the whole time and we all know he missed time due to injuries. But Physically he is in his prime... He should be at or very close to his peak physically. He is never going to be able to move his feet faster... or rotate his hips faster... His reflexes and reactions times will not get any better than they are now.


So... How much more improvement can we expect in terms of getting the football out faster? or making the reads faster.


It takes so long for the eyeball to process what is in front of it. Then it takes time to send the message to the brain. Then it takes time to process this and to decide what to do. Tua's brain is young... He is in his prime... As he ages from here his processing time can only go down.

So where is the improvement going to come from with Tua? Judgement? Accuracy? See maybe he makes miniscule improvements in this category... But noticable jumps ahead are very unlikely. And be fair....(For the Tua fans here.) How often have you praised his accuracy or his maturity? I am betting a lot. So it is not logical for people to now argue that Tua was lacking in these areas and thus likely for massive improvement. He is already atop of the league in accuracy and maturity.

From what I have seen here with the Tua fans, is nothing but praise about how he has improved etc... I have not seen people posting that his footwork sucks and needs massive improvement. I have not seen posts where people break down his throwing motion and state that he needs massive improvement. So you all mostly agree the footwork, the arm angle, the release point, the hip rotation have been great. So if Tua has all of this room for improvement and growth. Where is it going to come from? In the areas I just made an example of... The ones where the bulk of the posters here do not think Tua needs major improvement? No massive improvement is unlikely (Because he is already sound in these areas.)

So any improvement from Tua is going to be miniscule. Which is why I said that maybe we have seen who Tua is... And that I do not feel it is likely he will make any noticable improvements.

I know this was wordy... But please enlighten me how we should expect these better numbers from Tua.

Remember that Brady had rings before he was 26... So does Mahomes. Marino and Burrow went to the superbowl before they were 26...I know Matt Stafford did not get to the Superbowl until he was in his 30's But he needed to get on a team with elite weapons around him to get his ring. Tua has the elite weapons...


The more the league changes and the more the QB's are paid the more important it is to win with the QB on his rookie contract.

As has been stated, much of this post is built on a false premise. Athletes don’t peak at age 25 and then decline. That’s just completely incorrect. The Bill James data suggests that athletes peak at 27, plateau for 4-5 years, and then start their decline.

If you want to look at running backs as an exception, that’s a different conversation due to the abuse they put their bodies through early in their careers.

 

[Induperator]

As has been stated, much of this post is built on a false premise. Athletes don’t peak at age 25 and then decline. That’s just completely incorrect. The Bill James data suggests that athletes peak at 27, plateau for 4-5 years, and then start their decline.

If you want to look at running backs as an exception, that’s a different conversation due to the abuse they put their bodies through early in their careers.

Okay so pick 27 as your peak... Tua is 26 years gone meaning that he is at or near his absolute physical peak... My point remains...and so does the question... How much better do the people here expect Tua to get Physically?

 

[Induperator]

I would suggest that training methods have extended that window by a couple years over the past decade or two.

I read a great book several years back called: "younger next year" Science, medicine, diet, nutrition, and exercise have changed the bell curve.... The decline on the other side of the apex is slowed but there is no delaying the onset of the decline. It starts at roughly the same point

 

[Mach2]

Okay so pick 27 as your peak... Tua is 26 years gone meaning that he is at or near his absolute physical peak... My point remains...and so does the question... How much better do the people here expect Tua to get Physically?

Physically is not as important as intellectually and processing information correctly for a QB

You are arguing a false premise. There was never an expectation by any rational person that he would somehow, miraculously become an elite athlete.

If that is/was one's main criteria, Tua would have been a day 3 picks.

What is the point of even having that conversation now?

 

[Induperator]

Physically is not as important as intellectually and processing information correctly for a QB

You are arguing a false premise.

If you want to use the argument that Tua's experience will lead to less mental mistakes... I think that arguement could be made.

In terms of his brain receiving and processing information. I do not accept the arguement that our brains speed up and work faster as we age.

 

[Mach2]

If you want to use the argument that Tua's experience will lead to less mental mistakes... I think that arguement could be made.

In terms of his brain receiving and processing information. I do not accept the arguement that our brains speed up and work faster as we age.

May I ask your age, and what you do as a career?

 

[Induperator]

Definitely. I look forward to wining 5 games this year with Mike White at QB.

Tua is not going to hold out.

The floor for what a QB Makes does not go down. The best way to get a new contract long term is to earn it.

Tyreek, Mostert, Achane, Waddle, Smith, and Beckham are waiting... He can go look like the F'ing man it is never going to be any easier for him than with this group. Sitting out accomplishes nothing for him.

Look at the cowboys... with Dak. He did not get his new contract after year three, or four. They found a way to work out a new contract after year 5... Dak did not have to sit out a season to get paid. He did have to play out his initial contract though.

 

[Induperator]

May I ask your age, and what you do as a career?

I am 50 years old.
Without getting too deep into my career. I am semi retired (I was self employed...)I still dabble in buying large lots of building materials, and electrical components...Then I connect the dots, find buyers... It is lucrative and a lot of fun. I tend to my investments and wait for my wife to reach the age where she wants to retire. She loves her job, her company keep throwing promotions at her (Not wanting to lose her.) So she does not want to stop working yet.

I am not sure what any of this has to do with the price of tea in China. You asked I answered.

Now if you will, answer me this: What does my career and age have to do with Tua's brain not working faster as he ages?

 

[XxJustinxX]

If you want to use the argument that Tua's experience will lead to less mental mistakes... I think that arguement could be made.

In terms of his brain receiving and processing information. I do not accept the arguement that our brains speed up and work faster as we age.

But do you accept that our brains can improve the speed at which we process information through pattern recognition and heuristics?

As he enters another year in this system the defenses used to counter our offense will become more familiar to him and hopefully that will lead to improved and even faster decision making.

 

[Mach2]

I am 50 years old.
Without getting too deep into my career. I am semi retired (I was self employed...)I still dabble in buying large lots of building materials, and electrical components...Then I connect the dots, find buyers... It is lucrative and a lot of fun. I tend to my investments and wait for my wife to reach the age where she wants to retire. She loves her job, her company keep throwing promotions at her (Not wanting to lose her.) So she does not want to stop working yet.

I am not sure what any of this has to do with the price of tea in China. You asked I answered.

Now if you will, answer me this: What does my career and age have to do with Tua's brain not working faster as he ages?

Just trying to get a handle on the life experience that has lead to the conclusion that thought processes can't/don't get faster.

I am an industrial engineer who does a few different types of programming, machine tools, PLCs, a bit of Python, etc.

I can tell you unequivocally that I program circles around guys who haven't the experience that I have.

They may even be "smarter" and better overall programmers than I, but the simple fact that I have seen so many more problems and scenarios makes me much faster and able to do the same job with less, and less "buggy" code.

Not bragging here by any means, but the processing in my mind is usually several steps ahead of the keys or buttons I am physically pushing, kind of like a working "cache".

If you don't think that experience and dealing with diverse situations and problems allows one to become not only faster, but also more proficient, I say you are dead wrong, IMO.

 

[dolfanattic5]

It’s not a mic drop because he’s not correct about what he’s trying to say he’s seeing in the still pictures. He’s seeing what he wants…

Not saying he hasn’t improved mechanically. I’m a Tom House fan. But CK is wrong.

You literally took the least important part about the pictures and throwing motion (probably didn’t read the rest) in order to say CK was wrong. The most important part was talking about how coachable Tua is and how he improves in his deficiencies year after year.

 

[67Stang]

If you want to use the argument that Tua's experience will lead to less mental mistakes... I think that arguement could be made.

In terms of his brain receiving and processing information. I do not accept the arguement that our brains speed up and work faster as we age.

It does when you do the same thing and gain experience. Look at Drew Brees who did not become really elite until his 7th year. QBs absolutely get better at seeing things and processing what they see faster, the longer they have been in the league.