Vegas puts Dolphins over/under win total at 7.5 | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Vegas puts Dolphins over/under win total at 7.5

I honestly cant see us winning more than 4 games....5 at the most
 
MiamiDolfan85 said:
I honestly cant see us winning more than 4 games....5 at the most
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Please explain how you see Miami being two games worse than last year with the talent they have and the cupcake schedule? I honestly can't see them winning less than 6 games. 8-9 is probably more realistic.
 
nyjunc said:
I think Buf is close to us but there is a gap btw us and Miami. Everything would have to break perfectly for Miami to contend for a playoff spot, I expect us and Buf to contend.
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Of course you do. You make these "insane Fins fans" look, well, sane. Some of the things you say are just SO off the wall and out in left field that I cant even read them anymore. The fact that you defend Mark Sanchez as a "franchise" quarterback, completely ruins ALL your credibility as a knowledgeable football fan. Again, the FACT (Fact, not opinion) remains that Matt Moore was head and shoulders better than Sanchez or Fitzpatrick last year, but especially Sanchez. To say there is a big "gap" between the Jets and Fins is absurd, BUT then again this is coming from a guy stating Sanchez is "above average". LOL
 
dolpns13 said:
Isnt this the way we see it every year? The phins winning 10 games and the Jets winning 5? I would love Miami to have a 10-6 season and they could pull it off. With a schedule as easy as ours this year, they better pull it off, but I dont see any problem with our odds being at 7.5. Considering the past 3 years in a row we havent beaten that mark - with that being said vegas is actually throwing us a bone.. :chuckle:
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I remember last year certain people saying you were a complete moron if you didn't bet the over, it was like free money.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
It was the same company responsible for these over/unders, Cantor Gaming. They are a new outfit that has stormed into Las Vegas the past few years, first establishing themselves at new casinos like M Resort and Cosmopolitan, and now spreading their greasy fingers to formerly independent or Leroy's sportsbooks like Venetian, Palms, Hard Rock, Tropicana.

Bright red and yellow lights on the betting boards, and loud screens in your face at every seat. I guess it's the Oregon uniform version of sports betting. Locals aren't impressed, primarily because Cantor doesn't offer anything unique or bold in terms of betting options, and they have a stuffy attitude at the counter.

Along with scared pathetic limits. $3000 on season win over/unders is a joke, considering they hold your money for half a year. Gene Mayday of Little Caesar's casino must be rolling in his grave in hysterics. Twenty years ago in his tiny strip mall casino, on the current lot of Paris, Mayday would put up over/unders with a stated limit of $100,000, but a note saying, "Ask if you need more." More meant anything you wanted to play. I used to watch celebrities and big shot gamblers walk into his back office with a briefcase. Bob Stupak made the famous million dollar bet on the '89 Super Bowl at Little Caesar's. Mayday called me aside and told me he had taken many wagers larger than that. Those bettors simply didn't seek the publicity, unlike eccentric Stupak, then owner of Stratosphere.

These days Cantor Gaming somehow earns loud headlines with a 3 dime limit. That's the way Las Vegas has trended...corporate cookie cutter mentality taking the place of aggressive former bookmakers.

Anyway, Cantor still has the weekly spreads with the Dolphins favored 7 or 8 times in individual games, and New England favored perhaps across the board. I haven't checked specifically. But as I described in the related thread here a month ago, you can't merely add up the number of times a team is favored and pronounce that is their over/under. The writer of the article on the Dolphin site made that mistake. Even if New England was favored in all 16 games by 7 points or more, does anyone actually believe the over/under is 16? You might get a little bit of under money. Like a non stop line at the window until you adjusted severely. Every level of favoritism carries related win likelihood. A 7 point favorite equates to a win expectancy of roughly -300 (3 in 4). That's why the best teams that are favored virtually every week still figure to lose 3-5 games, under typical distribution.

Granted, these days in an imbalanced league with moronic teams throwing it 40+ times with mush quarterbacks, it scares the heck out of me toward somebody matching '72 and unbeaten. Contrast used to defeat the powerhouses on any given you know what. Force the same style and somebody who simply does it better will trump you virtually every time.

In that month ago thread I estimated Miami's over/under would be 7 over or 7.5 under. This number seems a bit high, since the juice on the under 7.5 is only -120 (120 to win 100). I expected -130 or more. I certainly wouldn't be in a rush to bet the over and pay -110. (Nice 30 cent line, BTW, another wimpy practice that would make Mayday chuckle). The sharp bettors overwhelmingly look to bet under on these lines while the public forces the over. Any team with the threat of a rookie quarterback playing, and with the number 7 or higher, generally draws under money. I would expect the juice on under 7.5 to push to -130 or greater, and it's not inconceivable some joints could hang a 7 (juiced over) later on.

Cantor is hardly the ultimate authority. And "applied their model" is allowing far too much credit. I wish everyone could work in a sportsbook for a day or two. That's all it would take to rid the mythology of sophistication. Companies like that are life and death to make sure everybody shows up to work, and for the lines on the screen to match what is in the computer. These days sports power ratings are very good, and many widely available sources. That's the sportsbook edge. They basically average the power ratings and spit out an accurate appraisal, just like political polling experts like Mark Blumenthal average the reputable polls for a valid representation of the race.
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Cant say Ive ever read an Awsi Dooger post and left disappointed.
 
Its not impossible to do better than 7.5 games. If Coach can get these guys prepared we might surprise a whole lot of people. Everyone looks at our team and takes a blind eye to our talent. At times you cant blame them due to the Phins performance on the field. However each new year comes with a fresh start. We can be just as good if not better than the others in the AFC East.
 
Vegas expects the Bills to improve the most in the AFC East, only had the Bills at over/under 5 a year ago. They expect NE to be the next most improved by a half game. Vegas predicts both Miami and the Jets got worse this year.

Should be an interesting year.
 
UNDER ALL DAY, MONEY IN THE BANK! If you think the Dolphins win 8 games this year you are caught up in your Dolphin love!
 
Nublar7 said:
Please explain how you see Miami being two games worse than last year with the talent they have and the cupcake schedule? I honestly can't see them winning less than 6 games. 8-9 is probably more realistic.
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first off, wow....you gotta no thanks my post just because of my honest opinion?


Im just saying I dont see where our points are gonna generate from on offense. We traded our best weapon on offense, we brought in a rookie QB whos probably best fit to sit out the gate. We brought a QB that is efficient yes, but isn't exactly known for getting into the endzone. And a re-tooling of the offensive line AGAIN. And our defense is going through a bigger overhaul than people think.


I mean we let go of our leader in the secondary. Whos gonna get our corners and safties lined up? Is it gonna be Vontae, who was suspended for being unaccountable, JUST LAST YEAR? Is it gonna be Sean Smith, who is the LAST person you'd want to follow in the footsteps at the POA. Reshad Jones? who for some reason plays the roamer in the secondary, when he's anything but? I mean we let go of our most consistent DE, and now we're switching schemes?


Look, I understand our schedule is weak. But just last year we all thought we'd beat Denver & Cleveland. We couldn't beat them with all the afore mentioned above. You mean to tell me we can somehow beat them now? Just because our opponents aren't the strongest, doesnt mean thats a check next to their game. Take a look at our roster on paper, and you tell me how many wins they can legitimately get. This team is no where near ready to compete.
 
MiamiDolfan85 said:
first off, wow....you gotta no thanks my post just because of my honest opinion?


Im just saying I dont see where our points are gonna generate from on offense. We traded our best weapon on offense, we brought in a rookie QB whos probably best fit to sit out the gate. We brought a QB that is efficient yes, but isn't exactly known for getting into the endzone. And a re-tooling of the offensive line AGAIN. And our defense is going through a bigger overhaul than people think.


I mean we let go of our leader in the secondary. Whos gonna get our corners and safties lined up? Is it gonna be Vontae, who was suspended for being unaccountable, JUST LAST YEAR? Is it gonna be Sean Smith, who is the LAST person you'd want to follow in the footsteps at the POA. Reshad Jones? who for some reason plays the roamer in the secondary, when he's anything but? I mean we let go of our most consistent DE, and now we're switching schemes?


Look, I understand our schedule is weak. But just last year we all thought we'd beat Denver & Cleveland. We couldn't beat them with all the afore mentioned above. You mean to tell me we can somehow beat them now? Just because our opponents aren't the strongest, doesnt mean thats a check next to their game. Take a look at our roster on paper, and you tell me how many wins they can legitimately get. This team is no where near ready to compete.
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Everything u said is perfectly reasonable, Nubs has us going 11-5 every year and he loved Sparano.
The simple fact is that anything can happen. Realistically though we have absolutely nothing to write home about on offense besides Bush (yawn), our guards are not good and the QB situation is still sub par at best.
Defensively we're pretty good but our deep secondary is still horrendous, we need another pass rusher outside of Wake in the worst way, our linebackers outside of Dansby are nothing special at all, and wer'e installing a whole new defensive system. Who the hell knows how it's going to work?
We.have a whole new coaching staff and the same bonehead GM. We have holes and question marks everywhere to the eye of any objective observer. 7.5 is a fair over/ under, but gun to my head I'd probably go under.
I'd go under on the Jets too though... Their QB/ o line situation is probably worse than ours, which is sad.
 
And I hate the whole "cupcake schedule" argument too. In the NFL these days, teams go from first to worst and vice versa all the time. To project that the schedule will be easy at this point is way premature. You really don't know who's who in the NFL until at least week 3-4.
 
insomnia411 said:
Everything u said is perfectly reasonable, Nubs has us going 11-5 every year and he loved Sparano.
The simple fact is that anything can happen. Realistically though we have absolutely nothing to write home about on offense besides Bush (yawn), our guards are not good and the QB situation is still sub par at best.
Defensively we're pretty good but our deep secondary is still horrendous, we need another pass rusher outside of Wake in the worst way, our linebackers outside of Dansby are nothing special at all, and wer'e installing a whole new defensive system. Who the hell knows how it's going to work?
We.have a whole new coaching staff and the same bonehead GM. We have holes and question marks everywhere to the eye of any objective observer. 7.5 is a fair over/ under, but gun to my head I'd probably go under.
I'd go under on the Jets too though... Their QB/ o line situation is probably worse than ours, which is sad.
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I had us winning 9 games last year, didn't anticipate the slow 0-7 start out of the gate, I envisioned the team we saw in the second half of the season that went 6-3. I am saying 8-9 wins for this upcoming season(in this thread I even said that). Not once did I say 11-5.

---------- Post added at 06:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:45 PM ----------
insomnia411 said:
In the NFL these days, teams go from first to worst and vice versa all the time.
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Yet Miami will suck because they did last year. :ponder:
 
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