First off, even though this is Saban's first year, it really isn't his team. He's mostly just tweaked a team that existed previously. He's got a new staff and some new players, but still the core has been there.
Then lets look at all those draft picks he didn't have.
As for how long "I" will give him...that is irrelevant. I'm merely a fan of the Miami Dolphins. No matter who the coach is, or the players. I'll give him the same amount of time that Wayne will give him, even if I don't agree with it.
But all things being as they are, this year is more of a learning experience for the Dolphins. A new coach to learn the NFL and players to learn the new schemes. The 2006 season, to me, will be a full bore upon him and his abilities as a NFL coach.