What Should the Blueprint Be?

[Golphindolphin]

Where did you hear that we have potentially a lame duck coach, QB, and GM, or is that wishful thinking on your part? I haven't heard anything wrt this please show me if I have mis-spoken.

 

[Marine-O]

offensive line man …you can t go into next season relying on T Stead . I keep Robert hunt and draft a tackle center 1 2. I mean this draft is loaded in the first 3 rounds. So many people I would take if we had the extra picks.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

It might be worth considering that in the era of my fandom the Dolphins have generally hired HCs who haven't been NFL HCs before. In hindsight, non of these really look all that appealing. Then you have the two most successful (Belichick & Reid) who both had try-outs before. Pete Carroll is another example having been with the Patriots prior to Belichick's arrival. Experience is very important unless the organization itself is super stable (i.e. Tomlin in Pittsburgh or Harbaugh in Baltimore).

Cameron was an OC in SD for about 5 years but that was it for his experience.

Parcells had a great history but was too old to take on the job of HC so maybe the Dolphins were chasing a ghost.

Sparano had bounced around the NFL quite a bit as a positional coach for 10-yrs, ending up as Parcells "Asst HC" in Dallas.

Philbin was an assistant in GB for about 10 years. Prior to that, all college experience, never as a HC either.

Gase had about 10 years of experience, 3 as OC, having mostly gained fame due to his proximity to Peyton Manning in Den.

Flores was very similar to Philbin but younger and bit more combative. Still, no HC experience and like Philbin, his only history was his 10-years in various assistant positions within 1 franchise. We imagined him being something. We saw what we wanted to see.

McDaniel is another young, inexperienced HC who's only ever worked under Kubiak/Shanahan.


Regardless of how you feel about those guys, it's clear that if Grier and McDaniel fail the goal should probably be to find someone with a bit of experience. Perhaps they'll have been replaced like Reid and Belichick were in Philly and Cleveland. But I think you need vision. Hiring a GM who can find and align the overall vision with that experience HC wouldn't be a bad thing--IF we get to that point where we fire Grier and McDaniel.

Right now, both of those guys are safe but they need to prove themselves. This is Grier's 3rd HC, the 2nd he started fresh with. Grier had the keys going back to 2019 when he cleaned the roster out and he had 3 years with Gase & Tannehill before that. It's 5 years later now that we did the "tank." There shouldn't be a "next chance" with Grier.Adam

McDaniel is either special and worth keeping or he's a typical HC hire that fails--someone going through that 1st phase where he learns what he needs to in order to succeed in some future stint somewhere else.

Good points. I wanted Mike Shanahan when Miami hired Adam Gase. Loved his experience and history of success.

In retrospect, maybe the Dolphins should have kept Dan Campbell. But he later admitted he needed more experience and felt his time under Sean Payton was good for him.

McDaniel is off to a good start. Unfortunately, there are growing pains with a first time coach.

I like that he's been able to bring in quality assistants like Vic Fangio. That is often a problem for inexperienced head coaches.

 

[Golphindolphin]

Good points. I wanted Mike Shanahan when Miami hired Adam Gase. Loved his experience and history of success.

In retrospect, maybe the Dolphins should have kept Dan Campbell. But he later admitted he needed more experience and felt his time under Sean Payton was good for him.

McDaniel is off to a good start. Unfortunately, there are growing pains with a first time coach.

I like that he's been able to bring in quality assistants like Vic Fangio. That is often a problem for inexperienced head coaches.

Easy to play the "what if" game with Campbell, that '15 team certainly responded to him in a big way. But as you point out, he just wasn't quite ready, both from an experience standpoint and more importantly, a relationship standpoint , tough to build a competent staff that way ( see Flores, Brian). His relationship with Parcells would've certainly eased the skids on finding coaches to work with, but in retrospect ownership had probably already had their fill of all things Big Tuna.

 

[Mello Yello]

Well Kyle Shanahan was inexperienced at one time too.

Young offensive HCs like Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, Zac Taylor and even Mike McDaniel can all work but there tends to be a pattern:

(1) There is quality QB play.

LA: Goff & Stafford
SF: Garoppolo & Purdy
CIN: Burrow
GB: Rodgers & Love
MIA: Tagovailoa

Miami has done enough in this area to look elsewhere in explaining it's shortcomings. Tua might be physically limited but those limitations don't explain the Dolphins limitations.

(2) The teams hits on unexpected stars outside just R1.

Looking at just the 49ers, check out what gems they've found deep in the draft since hiring Lynch & Shanahan in 2017:

R2 - WR - Deebo Samuel
R3 - LB - Fred Warner
R5 - LB - Dre Greenlaw
R5 - TE - George Kittle
R7 - QB - Brock Purdy

It's major hits like that which took Seattle to the top 10 years ago.

Miami hasn't done enough outside R1. Hunt and Holland are solid R2 picks. They're starters, but not nationally-recognized star pieces. Hunt is great but he's a Guard. Achane in R3 may qualify in time. There are just too many non-contributors from the '20, '21, '22 and '23 drafts if we're being honest.

Complete no-shows like Noah Igbinoghene, Hunter Long, Erik Ezukama, Channing Tindall and Cam Smith have pretty much been the norm. We're reaching to call guys like Raekwon Davis a hit when he's eminently replaceable. Austin Jackson turning in a good season is a "thank God" moment.


(3) A strong defensive unit with deep talent is present.

Miami's done a good job building this unit filling gaps in any way they can with FAs, UDFAs, trades, draft picks and re-signings. Bringing in Vic Fangio is good but it's going to take picks & $$$ to ensure that unit plays well going forward. Part of that is the lack of Channing Tindall, Noah Igbinoghene, Cam Smith, etc. It's also someone like R2 pick Raekwon Davis not being a more integral piece and basically having lost his place to a now more important Zach Seiler. It's R3 picks like Brandon Jones and Channing Tindall doing very little for you and having to be replaced by outside FAs like Deshon Elliott and David Long Jr.




Take-away:

If it feels like Miami is a step behind consider that maybe it's because they really haven't had a home-run draft that would gain them sufficient ground and stop them having to chase quick-fixes in FA.

At some point, Chris Grier is going to have to "win big" with the draft. While we can point to some solid picks, we simply haven't gained enough value there to be in a better position hence we're choosing between competing objectives at the same time:

(A) re-sign the QB
(B) rebuild the OL
(C) keep expensive players hitting FA: Wilkins, Van Ginkel, Hunt, Lamb, etc.
(D) retool the defense so the Vic Fangio acquisition leads to something


Mistakes have been made. We wasted years 1 & 2 of Tua's cheap rookie deal hiring the wrong HC. The OL rebuild was botched with bad picks and some losses to FA. Lots of picks & money were spent on a sexy WR when maybe that wasn't the most prudent thing for a still-rebuilding team.

At some point, Miami just has to do better on this team-building thing. It's hitting on players, having those players stay healthy and profiting from their performance relative to their cost. The obvious place to get that is the draft, where players are young and cheap.

This is why I think letting go of Tyreek (if anyone would take him) would also help assure you can keep guys like Wilkins/Hunt who would probably add more long-term value compared to another couple years of Hill producing wild stats--or worse, collecting $30M all while the coaches apply a governor to his catch/yards totals to make sure he's not overused. Sorry, but it's hard to imagine feeling good about paying $30M for 1,200-yds. Tyreek better produce 2,000-yds if he's being paid $30M and yet that kind of offense is one we've seen fail.