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Which would you prefer?

hoops

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Folks say the lb position is less valued these days. That’s a new one. They must not have watched Darius Leonard pretty much keep his defense in the bills playoff game by himself.

2 years ago the Tampa bay bucs drafted devin white 5th overall. He’s now part of the best off ball lb tandem in football. He and lavonte David.
 

JRYCRL

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I have not thought about it this way, but you might have gotten the 2 best w/os in the draft, along with maybe the best Tackle. What are you thinking we get to trade back out of 3
Really depends on how far back you go. I do these mock simulators and always trade back for more picks and future value. Trading back almost always makes sense.
 

MiaFins31

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Of those draft picks you have listed, none really appeal to me. But if I could mix and match, it would be:

#3 Ja'Marr Chase WR/LSU
#18 Travis Etienne TB/Clemson (way too high for me, I wouldn't take a RB in round 1, but he is the best RB and the best of a weak set of choices you listed at #18)
#36 Creed Humphrey C/Oklahoma (good value at #36, but I would rather draft a T who is good at pass protection to play RT as Tua's blind side protector)
#50 Alex Leatherwood OT/Alabama (really dislike this pick and all of the options, but I chose Leatherwood simply because I value the position)

If we were forced into one of those 4 scenarios, I would choose Scenario 3 ... but I would be extremely disappointed with the second round picks and really only happy about the Chase pick.

My evaluation of positions and talent seems to differ from yours. To each his own ... but if we sit at #3 and draft Sewell, Smith or Parsons we will have dramatically overdrafted and wasted a fantastic opportunity to trade back to almost any other spot.

In the second round, Zaven Collins is a solid player, but the LB position is less valued these days and he's more of a solid 2nd rounder. I like both RB's, but not at #18. Drafting Terrace Marshall in round 1 is wasteful as 2nd round WR's of equal or greater value will be available later.

We simply see the draft differently with your #36 picks. While Creed Humphry would be good value there, I will not be surprised if he's not available--but if he is, that's a solid pick. I'm not a believer in the edge rushers in this class. Sure, one or two will develop and I'll be wrong ... but I see all of them as low production athletic gambles or limited ceiling players. We need a pass rusher ... but there are no Chase Young types in this draft.

For the final 2nd rounder at #50, none of these guys would be players I would draft. While I'm high on drafting OL and think there are a lot of good ones available in the first two rounds, I tend to shy away from Alabama OL simply because Saban's team grinds them hard and they usually do not live up to their ability. Some have injury issues, some psychological issues, some are a mirage because they've been surrounded by talent, and yeah, some pan out just fine ... but the miss rate is too high for me. I'm just not as high on the WR prospects as you are, so I rate every one lower than you do with the exception of Ja'Marr Chase. I also do not rate RB's highly because of a low positional value these days, so after Etienne and Harris ... I'm looking at round 6 or UDFA's mostly. Guys like Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, or even Lynn Bowden Jr., will do just fine until we can find value.

This will be a fun thread to revisit just before the draft (especially if there is a combine this year) to see how evaluations change. I suspect closer to the actual draft our evaluations will be more similar than they are right now.

Cheers, and thanks for posting this @MiaFins31 , it is always fun to see different perspectives.

Fins Up!
I think you may be misunderstanding my point in this. This is not how I would rank any of these guys. I actually posted a top 100 board thread late last night. I listed those guys at those particular picks bc that's about the consensus right now. I tried to be as accurate as I could by what the media says their grades are. Not by what I think their grades are. Im probably the biggest Jamar Chase backer on this board as I've stated in other threads I absolutely love the guy and would take him over Smith. But again these are not my grades. I simply just tried to be accurate with where the media is grading those guys or at least around that area. I mean no disrespect at all but if from the sound of your post it sounds like you don't like a single one of those guys I listed in any scenario and to me those 16 guys are some of the main guys Miami will be looking at bc they all fit a need somewhere for us. My point is wherever pick I put each guy is not what I think its just where I think around they'll be drafted which is why I put a guy like Etienne at 18 in one bc he nor Harris is making it to pick 36. I've also stated numerous times im all for trading back from 3 and thats my preference but just for the purposes of this exercise I obviously couldn't include projected trades bc that would take a ton of time I just don't have. This was basically a snapshot thats all.

I'd be super interested to hear what you think for our first 4 picks bc im really intrigued since you don't like most of those guys I listed. Im not being condescending at all I'd genuinely be interested.
 

MiaFins31

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I pick 4. They’re all pretty good and win-win.
Agreed. Obviously like everybody else i prefer 1 of those to the others but I don't think we could go wrong with any of the 4. They all fill needs with good players but their are a couple reaches like a couple have said I don't agree with a tailback in round 1 either but for the purposes of this exercise I put Etienne and Harris both at 18 in 2 different scenarios bc I wanted those 2 guys included in this and neither 1 will be available for us at 36 so I had no choice but to fit them in at 18.
 

MiaFins31

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Folks say the lb position is less valued these days. That’s a new one. They must not have watched Darius Leonard pretty much keep his defense in the bills playoff game by himself.

2 years ago the Tampa bay bucs drafted devin white 5th overall. He’s now part of the best off ball lb tandem in football. He and lavonte David.
I agree as well. Kind of surprised at people scoffing at a LB at 3 but are thrilled with a WR at 3. I think WR at 3 is less value than LB at 3 although I wouldn't take either of the positions at 3 myself. Only person im taking at 3 is Sewell unless we just can't trade down and if we can't then yeah I'm on board take 1 of the WRs. Preferably JaMarr Chase
 

rafael

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Lol all good answers but I see pretty much nobody wants to stick with any scenario as it was originally given which was the point of this. I know we all want our preferences but let's all be honest were not going to get every player we prefer with those 4 picks so that was my point was to see which player or players were really valued by everyone. That's why I mixed them the way I did bc that way nobody get exactly what they want. You have to take a guy or even 2 along with the guy or 2 that you actually prefer. I honestly wouldn't be upset about any of these combinations although I'd probably go with scenario 2. We get 2 impact receivers and 2 defensive front 7 players to really level up our defense.
I wanted Smith in my draft, but it was the only scenario where no RB included. I have WR and RB as my top two priority needs n this draft.
 

MiaFins31

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I wanted Smith in my draft, but it was the only scenario where no RB included. I have WR and RB as my top two priority needs n this draft.
Exactly. I left a tailback off of Smiths scenario bc I wanted to see how much people really wanted or if they'd go 1 of the other scenarios to fill other needs. Its quite the conundrum and that was my purpose. To not give anybody every player they wanted in 1 single scenario.
 

Gofinyourself

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Of those draft picks you have listed, none really appeal to me. But if I could mix and match, it would be:

#3 Ja'Marr Chase WR/LSU
#18 Travis Etienne TB/Clemson (way too high for me, I wouldn't take a RB in round 1, but he is the best RB and the best of a weak set of choices you listed at #18)
#36 Creed Humphrey C/Oklahoma (good value at #36, but I would rather draft a T who is good at pass protection to play RT as Tua's blind side protector)
#50 Alex Leatherwood OT/Alabama (really dislike this pick and all of the options, but I chose Leatherwood simply because I value the position)

If we were forced into one of those 4 scenarios, I would choose Scenario 3 ... but I would be extremely disappointed with the second round picks and really only happy about the Chase pick.

My evaluation of positions and talent seems to differ from yours. To each his own ... but if we sit at #3 and draft Sewell, Smith or Parsons we will have dramatically overdrafted and wasted a fantastic opportunity to trade back to almost any other spot.

In the second round, Zaven Collins is a solid player, but the LB position is less valued these days and he's more of a solid 2nd rounder. I like both RB's, but not at #18. Drafting Terrace Marshall in round 1 is wasteful as 2nd round WR's of equal or greater value will be available later.

We simply see the draft differently with your #36 picks. While Creed Humphry would be good value there, I will not be surprised if he's not available--but if he is, that's a solid pick. I'm not a believer in the edge rushers in this class. Sure, one or two will develop and I'll be wrong ... but I see all of them as low production athletic gambles or limited ceiling players. We need a pass rusher ... but there are no Chase Young types in this draft.

For the final 2nd rounder at #50, none of these guys would be players I would draft. While I'm high on drafting OL and think there are a lot of good ones available in the first two rounds, I tend to shy away from Alabama OL simply because Saban's team grinds them hard and they usually do not live up to their ability. Some have injury issues, some psychological issues, some are a mirage because they've been surrounded by talent, and yeah, some pan out just fine ... but the miss rate is too high for me. I'm just not as high on the WR prospects as you are, so I rate every one lower than you do with the exception of Ja'Marr Chase. I also do not rate RB's highly because of a low positional value these days, so after Etienne and Harris ... I'm looking at round 6 or UDFA's mostly. Guys like Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, or even Lynn Bowden Jr., will do just fine until we can find value.

This will be a fun thread to revisit just before the draft (especially if there is a combine this year) to see how evaluations change. I suspect closer to the actual draft our evaluations will be more similar than they are right now.

Cheers, and thanks for posting this @MiaFins31 , it is always fun to see different perspectives.

Fins Up!
Excellent post.

Ja' Marr Chase. Please.
 

rafael

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Exactly. I left a tailback off of Smiths scenario bc I wanted to see how much people really wanted or if they'd go 1 of the other scenarios to fill other needs. Its quite the conundrum and that was my purpose. To not give anybody every player they wanted in 1 single scenario.
I just didn't see it as realistic. It would seem more effective to just ask, Would you want Smith over Sewell, Chase and Parsons if it meant that RB went unaddressed for no realistic reason at all.
 

MiaFins31

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I just didn't see it as realistic. It would seem more effective to just ask, Would you want Smith over Sewell, Chase and Parsons if it meant that RB went unaddressed for no realistic reason at all.
Was it unrealistic to think we wouldn't draft a tailback in last years draft? Bc I guarantee most everybody here thought we would take a tailback somewhere and we didn't. Just bc we see a position as a weakness doesn't mean the FO does. No fan ever has said well I truly love all 7 picks of my teams draft. 100% of the time fans react like well I love our rounds 2/3/5 picks but I can't believe we passed on drafting such and such position. And its going to happen again this year. Im not saying we won't draft a tailback im just saying their will be a position that we the fans view as a need that they will ignore in the draft. It happens every year.
 

Digital

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I think you may be misunderstanding my point in this. This is not how I would rank any of these guys. I actually posted a top 100 board thread late last night. I listed those guys at those particular picks bc that's about the consensus right now. I tried to be as accurate as I could by what the media says their grades are. Not by what I think their grades are. Im probably the biggest Jamar Chase backer on this board as I've stated in other threads I absolutely love the guy and would take him over Smith. But again these are not my grades. I simply just tried to be accurate with where the media is grading those guys or at least around that area. I mean no disrespect at all but if from the sound of your post it sounds like you don't like a single one of those guys I listed in any scenario and to me those 16 guys are some of the main guys Miami will be looking at bc they all fit a need somewhere for us. My point is wherever pick I put each guy is not what I think its just where I think around they'll be drafted which is why I put a guy like Etienne at 18 in one bc he nor Harris is making it to pick 36. I've also stated numerous times im all for trading back from 3 and thats my preference but just for the purposes of this exercise I obviously couldn't include projected trades bc that would take a ton of time I just don't have. This was basically a snapshot thats all.

I'd be super interested to hear what you think for our first 4 picks bc im really intrigued since you don't like most of those guys I listed. Im not being condescending at all I'd genuinely be interested.
Didn't mean to be negative, and sorry if it came across that way. I didn't know about your ranking thread. Please link it as I am interested in that stuff!

Every year I discuss each of our picks, and who I like and dislike and why. I was a huge fan of our Minkah Fitzpatrick picks and consistently said he needed to be played exclusively as a Free Safety at least until he felt comfortable, because he had tremendous potential. When he went to Pittsburgh, that's exactly what they did and he became an instant star. I was probably the biggest fan of the Mike Gesicki pick, as well as the Xavien Howard pick the year before, as pre-draft each year I had targeted them as guys I would want. I made cases against all the naysayers every step of the way, and couldn't be happier to see each of those guys become great.

So yeah, I'm very vested in this stuff and have very strong opinions. Your thread is a good one and meant no disrespect with my post ... I'm just very into this stuff. :) I wasn't high on Josh Rosen and took a lot of flack for it. I was high on Ryan Fitzpatrick and took a lot of flack for that one too. But, my opinions are usually fairly solid, and that's why I was so specific. Point me to your board, I'm always excited to read other people's analysis and why they prefer one guy over another, and how someone I may have overlooked might be a good fit for us.

Again, thanks!
 

MiaFins31

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Didn't mean to be negative, and sorry if it came across that way. I didn't know about your ranking thread. Please link it as I am interested in that stuff!

Every year I discuss each of our picks, and who I like and dislike and why. I was a huge fan of our Minkah Fitzpatrick picks and consistently said he needed to be played exclusively as a Free Safety at least until he felt comfortable, because he had tremendous potential. When he went to Pittsburgh, that's exactly what they did and he became an instant star. I was probably the biggest fan of the Mike Gesicki pick, as well as the Xavien Howard pick the year before, as pre-draft each year I had targeted them as guys I would want. I made cases against all the naysayers every step of the way, and couldn't be happier to see each of those guys become great.

So yeah, I'm very vested in this stuff and have very strong opinions. Your thread is a good one and meant no disrespect with my post ... I'm just very into this stuff. :) I wasn't high on Josh Rosen and took a lot of flack for it. I was high on Ryan Fitzpatrick and took a lot of flack for that one too. But, my opinions are usually fairly solid, and that's why I was so specific. Point me to your board, I'm always excited to read other people's analysis and why they prefer one guy over another, and how someone I may have overlooked might be a good fit for us.

Again, thanks!
Im not super tech savvy especially from a phone but the title of the thread is MiaFins31s NFL Draft Big Board Top 100 and its in the NFL Draft forum.

I didn't take it as negative at all I just thought I should clarify that wasn't where me myself was ranking those guys just using the general consensus for the purpose of that exercise. I'm always happy to discuss and see others opinions too and especially those that watch the tape of the players not just what they saw on the stat sheet.

My top 100 is just for now as obviously I reserve the right to change my mind after pro days and combine and all that stuff leading up to the draft. My rankings are also not where I think a player will be drafted. I rank the players based on purely who I think the best players are pound for pound. Please find and comment on the thread would love to discuss with you.
 
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