Why the Phins wont and should not draft a QB in the 1st

[NEW-ERA-PHIN]

Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

 

[23Dolphins34]

Good thorough job and nice work. Can't disagree with much you said, I agree about not drafting QB in the 1st. Drafting a defensive player or a LT should be the direction for the 1st round.

 

[Boik14]

I posted something similar about mid way through the season and got reamed for it. Expect the same from the majority who think a qb in rd 1 is the answer because "OMFG Peyton, Big Ben, Duante, Carson and McNabb are so bleepin good" even with a combined 0 rings and 1 SB appearance. And thats despite the success and failure rate at the qb position in rd 1 being the 2nd highest to wr.

People dont realize now you can win the SB just by having a bigtime, playmaking D and a QB who simply doesnt make mistakes with a strong run game.

Not to mention its 10x more cap efficient because with QB being the highest paid position and 1st rd qb's making ridiculous sums despite being unproven you simply lose out even when you win. 1st rd players have to contribute right away. You can have a 3rd or 4th rd QB sit and learn for a year or two at a fraction of the cost you would have that 1st rd qb sitting and learning anyway. All that cap space in the meantime goes to waste.

Also K Collins didnt win a SB, his NYG got trounced by the Ravens.

Oh and as far as what you list under warner...Holt, Pace, and Bruce are likely HOFERS with Faulk. Bruce has numerous Pro bowls and is regarded as a top 3 wr over the past decade. Holt is the only player ever with more then 2 1400 yard seasons (hes got 6 straight, i believe this year he fell short of 7). Pace is a perrenial all pro.

 

[Danny]

Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

Very good job and I can see you put a lot of work and time into it.You also make some good points but of course every draft is different.I'm not gona cry if we don't take a QB with our top pick...in fact,I'm hoping Ngata will fall to us tho I doubt it.In the end,Nick knows what he's doind and I trust him.

Ozzy rules!!

 

[paskerbrandon]

Wow... Nice Post... I agree.

 

[Motion]

Nice research. But I got another fact for you. The last time Miami spent a 1st rounder on a QB, it turned out pretty well, wouldn't you agree?

I'd love to have Cutler, but I also know Saban and Mueller know their stuff and will do whats right for the team, they know we need a franchise QB, and they'll get one.

 

[cowtowndick]

not sure i really buy that reasoning - would you have passed on all the qb's drafted in the first round that turned out great? passed on marino? i'm sure you could put together almost the exact statistical analysis for rb's drafted in the first round. i think the key is the state of the team that drafted the qb, not necessarily only the qb in question; also, the depth of the draft at different positions. in our case, the qb position is one that is in desperate need of an infusion of talent. while you make the argument that you don't need a talented qb to win, only an efficient one, how many years have we watched a great defense being held back because the people running the team had that exact same philosophy? how happy have you been with the qb's running the offense since marino retired? how many high draft choices were spent on the defense? 'best player available' is the driving force behind many people's draft philosophy, but it must be tempered to a certain degree on team need. when our number 16 pick comes up, there will be a group of players that will likely grade out very close to one another; whichever one is held by the coaching staff to be the one who will make the greatest contribution to the team's success will be the one chosen. those of us who are advocating a qb in the first round feel exactly that way - that a qb will make a greater contribution to the long-term success of the team, more so than a cb, a safety or another lb. it's just our opinion, and like almost everyone on this site who has commented on the draft has stated, i will be TOTALLY STOKED with whatever direction coach saban and crew take.

 

[SMadison29]

xpect the same from the majority who think a qb in rd 1 is the answer because "OMFG Peyton, Big Ben, Duante, Carson and McNabb are so bleepin good" even with a combined 0 rings and 1 SB appearance.

But other than Culpepper, they're not the reason their respective teams haven't made it to the Super Bowl & won the Super Bowl, it's been their defenses letting them down.

 

[King Felix]

Wow... Nice Post... I agree.

jw......is ne1 else in ur group to get brooks???

 

[Boik14]

But other than Culpepper, they're not the reason their respective teams haven't made it to the Super Bowl & won the Super Bowl, it's been their defenses letting them down.

Ahhh but they are the reason their teams havent made the SB. Because of the ridiculous salaries those Qb's have those teams have hard a hard time filling all the needs. And when they finally did in the case of Manning and McNabb they played like poop (yesterday for manning and last years SB for Mcnabb). So all in all they arent the whole problem but they arent the solution either. Even with the Eagles great cap management a contract like McNabb's that takes up 1/6th of your cap year in and year out forces a revolving door and keep pushing veterans out.

 

[sports24/7]

So basically we should ignore the fact that QB is our #1 need, and just pray that a Tom Brady falls into our lap, because not all of the past SB champs had #1 picks at QB? Stats like that don't really mean anything to me and I'm sure they don't mean much to coaches and GMs around the league.

 

[Boik14]

So basically we should ignore the fact that QB is our #1 need, and just pray that a Tom Brady falls into our lap, because not all of the past SB champs had #1 picks at QB? Stats like that don't really mean anything to me and I'm sure they don't mean much to coaches and GMs around the league.

Given Mueller's draft history with QB's with NO we should reach for Cutler a round early? The guy found Jake Delhomme garbage pick up day working the early bird shift (ok it was rd 7 but Jake was starting to have to think about alternatives), Marc Bulger in a stock broker firm (ok it was really rd 6 but Marc was getting that new career ready), and traded a 4th for a qb that was GB's 3rd stringer who's name was Aaron brooks (who I have never been a fan of but they did get 3 good years out of him before Haslett syndrome apparently set in and killed his aptitude to think.

 

[Motion]

Given Mueller's draft history with QB's with NO we should reach for Cutler a round early? The guy found Jake Delhomme garbage pick up day working the early bird shift (ok it was rd 7 but Jake was starting to have to think about alternatives), Marc Bulger in a stock broker firm (ok it was really rd 6 but Marc was getting that new career ready), and traded a 4th for a qb that was GB's 3rd stringer who's name was Aaron brooks (who I have never been a fan of but they did get 3 good years out of him before Haslett syndrome apparently set in and killed his aptitude to think.

If anything this means we are in good hands. I like Cutler, but at this point after 6 years of QB mediocrity, I just want a young QB that we can groom into our franchise QB for at least the next 5+ years.

 

[Jaj]

How many times must someone say that THERE IS NO SUPERBOWL FORMULA

 

[sports24/7]

Given Mueller's draft history with QB's with NO we should reach for Cutler a round early? The guy found Jake Delhomme garbage pick up day working the early bird shift (ok it was rd 7 but Jake was starting to have to think about alternatives), Marc Bulger in a stock broker firm (ok it was really rd 6 but Marc was getting that new career ready), and traded a 4th for a qb that was GB's 3rd stringer who's name was Aaron brooks (who I have never been a fan of but they did get 3 good years out of him before Haslett syndrome apparently set in and killed his aptitude to think.

Taking Cutler at 16 is no where near a round early, but if that is truly what Saban and Mueller think then no they shouldn't. But if they feel he is going to be a good QB for us for years, then they need to make sure and grab him. The fact is that this team needs a QB and hoping that a late round QB pans out is not an option right now unless we can bring in another young talented QB. But I don't see that happening so, yes we need to address the QB situation early in the draft.