Why the Phins wont and should not draft a QB in the 1st

[Motion]

Taking Cutler at 16 is no where near a round early, but if that is truly what Saban and Mueller think then no they shouldn't. But if they feel he is going to be a good QB for us for years, then they need to make sure and grab him. The fact is that this team needs a QB and hoping that a late round QB pans out is not an option right now unless we can bring in another young talented QB. But I don't see that happening so, yes we need to address the QB situation early in the draft.

Agree 100%

 

[Dolfansal]

Taking Cutler at 16 is no where near a round early, but if that is truly what Saban and Mueller think then no they shouldn't. But if they feel he is going to be a good QB for us for years, then they need to make sure and grab him. The fact is that this team needs a QB and hoping that a late round QB pans out is not an option right now unless we can bring in another young talented QB. But I don't see that happening so, yes we need to address the QB situation early in the draft.

Check out the Big-board at draft daddy. Get Cutler in here.

http://www.draftdaddy.com/prospects/reset.cfm


I guess saban should find out what the super bowl coaches eat for breakfast every day if he wants to go to the super bowl.

Didn't we try to do what "other teams" have done to get to the super bowl in the wanny years. We had a good, fast defense, a running game and a sub par QB. Were exactly did that get us. We became the laughing stock of the NFL last year.

 

[Motion]

Check out the Big-board at draft daddy. Get Cutler in here.

http://www.draftdaddy.com/prospects/reset.cfm


I guess saban should find out what the super bowl coaches eat for breakfast every day if he wants to go to the super bowl.

Didn't we try to do what "other teams" have done to get to the super bowl in the wanny years. We had a good, fast defense, a running game and a sub par QB. Were exactly did that get us. We became the laughing stock of the NFL last year.

That board is BS. I like Cutler and all but how in the hell is Michael Huff's stock dropping? He had an amazing Rose Bowl. What has Jimmy Williams done to drop his stock? How has Tye Hill soared all the sudden? VERY questionable source.

 

[Finfanforever]

Nice post. A lot of work. However...this has NOTHING to do with 2006. If you want to make your research totally legit ...do it for ALL positions. I thinks you'll find the same kind of results. Example: for every Ryan Leaf...there will be a John Bosa, or Jackie Shipp. According to your research the Fins SHOULD HAVE PASSED on Drew Brees and selected Jamar Fletcher. No offense...But I fail to see the logic here. It's all about scouting! Some teams are good at it ...others suck at it.

 

[SCall13]

Good thorough job and nice work. Can't disagree with much you said, I agree about not drafting QB in the 1st. Drafting a defensive player or a LT should be the direction for the 1st round.

I agree with you. I posted this before and got flamed by a slew of Jay Cutler lovers.

 

[SCall13]

Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

Good post. Nice research. I agree with you.

 

[Motion]

I agree with you. I posted this before and got flamed by a slew of Jay Cutler lovers.

Whats your answer to our QB issue?

 

[Finfanforever]

Whats your answer to our QB issue?

To hell with the QB position! Gus is our "Dan Marino" he surely will lead us to the SUPER BOWL!!! :sidelol:

 

[Finfanforever]

Whats your answer to our QB issue?

How's Jay Fiedler these days?

 

[Motion]

How's Jay Fiedler these days?

:confused: WTF?

 

[finfansince72]

Thanks for doing the research but it really is pretty much meaningless. You take the highest rated player at the position you are at in the draft. If Cutler is that highly rated on Saban's board he's taking him and I have no questions about it. If not he won't. You don't draft scared because some other Qb was a bust and you don't pass up legit talent because Brady was a late round pick. You scout the players, rate them as you see them, take them as they are available. Saban and Co. know what they are doing.
You could use a similar formula that you used to justify this post with any position. Look at how many good Rb's that there are taken outside the 1st round, does that mean we should have passed on Ronnie? No, thats idiotic.
The salary stuff is nonsense also, all first rounders make good money, we didnt get a 'non-Qb' discount on Ronnie did we? And once a Qb starts, proves he is good, he gets paid, you can't be cheap about the Qb position.
The Qb position must be upgraded in the offseason, its not optional. If we have Gus starting and a 5th round pick grooming we will be watching the playoffs once again. We have some other holes to fill but guess what? We have caproom and other draft picks, funny aint it?

 

[BlueFin]

Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

Sorry, but you have to start from Super Bowl 1 to get an accurate number, I did a thread on this over a year ago. The fact is..........your very best chance of finding a Superbowl QB is in the first round.

http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=62274

Also, bear in mind I wrote this prior to the last Superbowl, also note since I did this I found one error, Earl Morrall, winner of Superbowl 5 was also a 1st round pick.

The facts bear out your odds are better of finding that Championship QB in the first round, than they are in all the other rounds, and undrafted free agency, and the other football leagues combined.

 

[BlueFin]

Also, bear in mind, the rules have been shifted towards offense, so while defense is still extremely important, the days of winning with mediocre Quarterbacking are probably over.

You simply have to be able to score enough points.

 

[Finfanforever]

:confused: WTF?

Speedrush...you KNOW how I feel about the QB position. That statement is dripping with sarcasm! I am trying to get some hard-heads to think. I know...it's like re-arranging the furniture on the Titanic. What's the use??

 

[SCall13]

Whats your answer to our QB issue?

I don't know what Saban plans on doing. I'm just throwing my opinion out there about what Saban will do with our 1st round pick. MY OPINION is Saban will go with a pick he feels is more of a sure thing in a position of need. Cutler is an attractive option but Saban has stated he would look for value and a safer pick early in the draft because of the possibility of being wrong. QB is always the popular pick, but it isn't always the right, best choice. As badly as we need a QB and as attractive as Cutler is, is he a sure thing? Saban may pick him. I don't know. Noone knows. But I feel that this team has too many needs to take a risk in the 16th spot. Saban may even choose to trade down to accumulate more picks.