Can the Dolphins be the Chargers of 2005? I don't think it is impossible, though a few things have to fall into place for it to happen.
How tough might the AFC East really be, for example? If Losman struggles badly in his first year starting? The Bills are in trouble.
If Penny goes down for half or more of the season for the Jets? With Jay Fiedler as the back-up? :D
As bad as the team was last season, they managed to beat the Pats, who still had a reason to play hard (homefield advantage was on the line). Is it so hard to imagine an improved, Saban lead team beating them again at Miami? I don't think so.
So, the AFC East may be easier than it seems right now.
Winning 12 games (like the Chargers did) would be a bit of a shocker, because Feeley would have to put it together like Brees did at QB. One of our WRs or TE McMichael would have to step up like TE Gates did for the Chargers. The OL would have to be transformed into a solid unit, though we've got Houck now, right? Brown at HB, who can be the threat like LT is for the Chargers.
The defense seems like the most solid part of the team right now, so that is not as much of a concern. Safety maybe.
The above is a long list of things that have to happen for the Phins to reach a 12-4 record, but I feel that even 10 wins is realistic, even if the team just improves at QB and OL.