ATL_PHIN_FAN
Winner Under Construction
Really nice post, NBP81. Well thought out. I can't take issue with any of it, really. Seems pretty accurate to me. I think the question for us this off season is how patient we want to be about getting those assets. If we go by your priority, maybe we should do what it takes to be set at QB this year?Well here's my simplified back of a napkin thought proccess.
Now Im really not saying this is the only way to win, Im saying its the approach thats most likely to give you a shot consistently, year after year.
- Making the playoffs is the #1 objective. Single elimination formats involve alot of variance, especially in the game of football where a couple bad breaks can make a underdog win and advance. You simply need to put your team in there as frequently as you can and getting a bye should be high on the list.
- You get to the playoffs by winning games.
- Historically, scoring points is more important than stopping your opponent from scoring points to win games.
- So logically, focusing on scoring points should be a priority.
- How do you score points on offense? Well in the early 90s the Running game started getting some traction when it comes to its correlation with points scored and made peak actually getting close to the passing in 2004, when the rules changed. The running game has been taking a deep dive ever since. Seems logical to me that building a strong passing game would be a solid strategy for scoring points on a regular basis.
- View attachment 36372
- The most important elements to building a passing game are QB, OL and WR. QB being by far the most expensive position to fill. Goes without saying that having a QB on a rookie contract for essentially 5 years gives you alot of options when it comes to surrounding him with talent.
- The second most expensive position is Tackle, these guys cost alot of dough even when they are mediocre. So its a good idea to get those on rookie contracts also. WRs are are pretty much the same going in 3rd.
- Whats really interesting is that QB, T and WR are actually, in that order, the most significant valuable positions to draft on your whole team based on vet salaries, their rookie contract and the odds of getting different player tiers through the draft. In other words the top 3 in draft expected value(relative to salary cap) are QB, T and WR.
The problem for me is, if it turns out we aren't actually set at QB, after an extreme investment in one, how much does that set us back, if QB is the clear priority? Is there a way to minimize risk here? If there is, do the best perennial playoff teams consistently manage that risk better than others?