Is Adam Gase Overrated??? | Page 8 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Is Adam Gase Overrated???

I personally don't consider Gase to be overrated, only because I never rated him as being good in the first place. However, it seems that many fans have overrated him, thinking that he was the team's savior. IMO, the ONLY reason Miami made the playoffs last season was because of luck. Miami has a history of refs making unfavorable calls at the worst possible times, and having the ball bounce their opponent's way more often than not. But, for some reason, last year the ball bounced their way and they won a lot of close games that they normally would have lost.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
Don't overreact to a game in which the opponent owned a massive situational edge. I realize that topic is not always popular around here, or on fan sites in general, but it is the reality.

I had a friend from Las Vegas call me on Wednesday. He was almost out of breath: "Every angle in the world points to the Jets. Your best angles point to the Jets. But how can I trust McCown with a huge bet?"

Exactly. I told him I understood the dilemma. I was in the same spot.

I ended up making a regular play on the Jets. He tripled his typical amount and was chirping all afternoon in repeated texts. I had other friends who went much higher than triple, plus money line. And likewise on betting sites in general, where the Jets were a wise guy bonanza.

That type of thing will baffle the mainstream crowd. And it is understandable. It is one of the reasons I have so much trouble juggling my Las Vegas background and situational knowledge with posting on fan sites. The topics and therefore the perspective could not be more divergent. The betting side doesn't always win out but when there is a seemingly bizarre result it is most often explained by situational influence, and situational influence is all but ignored by traditional sports fans and media. Every week is viewed as the same.

I will try to be more accepting and less critical of the technical football guys. That is one of my goals...starting now. Ross made an awesome statement about being less divisive when we disagree with others. Absolutely. I gained a ton of respect for him. That said, it is going to be difficult for me. The technical type of focus is best applied to college football, where there are dramatic gaps in ability level and situational aspects are not nearly as relevant. In the NFL I'm sure the Wharton-type guys feel very sharp when they find some video clip that supposedly represents something significant. Meanwhile, it's a Crowd on Crowd league so plays here and there don't mean much at all. Situational factors can and do wipe out the findings the following week.

That's the reason the Jets were a top pick on wise guys wagering forums but the technical football guys could never back that side. They can only deal with what they've seen on the field, and recently. Nothing on the field in 2017 pointed to the Jets. But that basically doesn't mean anything at all. I'm sure the technical guys were forecasting Ajayi to ramble, and so forth.

The Dolphins were in satisfied fat cat mode as a road team coming off a victory. That's especially dangerous for Crowd teams, which aren't dependable in the first place. This game would have been considerably more competitive physically if the Dolphins had lost to the Chargers.

More importantly, the Jets were in an incredibly favorable spot. That's what prompted my friend's phone call. He knew from my research decades ago that teams that open with consecutive road games -- and lose both of them -- are extremely energized and effective in that game three home opener. The advantage is magnified to absurd level when they happen to be a divisional home underdog in that home opener.

My stuff is on spreadsheets dating to 1978. But conveniently I found someone else who posted the same angle, albeit a more recent and limited sample. For all I know he stole it from me because I stupidly blabbed this angle, among many others, when I was trying to impress as a newcomer on Las Vegas radio beginning in the late '80s.

Here is that link, from 2011. Note the 56-21 against the spread quote in the summary of the Lions vs. Vikings game from that year:

https://miniblob.com/week-3-nfl-picks/

Dating to 1978 the percentage doesn't match that 56-21 but it is huge, nearly 70% against the number.

And keep in mind the normal home divisional underdog assignment is much lower than +6.5. It is closer to +3 average. To receive +6.5 at home against a Crowd team was surreal overreactive insult.

When my friend called on Wednesday he gave me some teams trends that I was not aware of. I more or less don't care about team trends. They are fragile and less dependable than angles that apply to the league as a block. I've always scoffed at them, after wasting so much time researching them in the mid '80s before I wised up.

Anyway, he told me the local Las Vegas radio handicapping shows were blabbing a trend favoring the Jets: 14-5 straight up and 16-2-1 against the spread the week after playing two consecutive road games. I quickly looked it up. The numbers were correct. That's what influenced him to triple his normal wager. And the guy who writes the betting trend column for the Las Vegas Review Journal must have been listening to the same programs, because I noticed that he printed the identical findings in his Saturday column, while picking the Jets to win, 16-13.

Adam Gase has still done a heck of a job. He is saddled with the ultimate Crowd team, so whenever expectations get too high for this team you can matter of factly assume lower, and the opposite is true also. With Jay Cutler the lows are going to be lower than with Tannehill. I posted that during preseason and I think it was consensus. When things are going poorly Cutler is going to press more, and his mechanics are worse, and he won't care as much about garbage time touchdowns. That buzzer score today was mostly an accident.

There are 32 teams in the National Football League. Only one of them has managed 6 to 10 regular season wins in each of the past 8 seasons dating to 2009. We do it emphatically and on merit, seldom tinkering with the parameters of 6 or 10 as opposed to asserting the midsection as our home. It's basically a Crowd franchise, let alone Crowd team. Our owner is Crowd. Our general managers have been Crowd. Coaches are Crowd. Our patched stadium is Crowd. Even when we needlessly lessened our uniforms and logo we kept them in Crowd bracketing instead of butchering to the bottom of the league.

I've called it the most boring era in franchise history. So much Crowd. I prefer to be entertained and kept guessing, as opposed to knowing I can predict 8-8 without any thought at all.

I don't have patience for the technical guys who like to imagine and shout all type of Cream and Crap variables, apparently swirling around and counteracting each other, like these storms in the Atlantic.

It is a bit odd that Adam Gase has so few big uptick games, ones in which the team drastically exceeds expectation. There should be a sampling of that regardless of role...home or road, underdog or favorite, divisional or not. It is something to keep an eye on going forward, but no big deal now.
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I'm not familiar with all the data you shared, but divisional road game, I fully expected this to be a competitive game, us being who we are -the mediocrity cake you described. I'm surprised it went this badly, but 1 of the 16 games has to be the worst of the year and this will very likely be it. That being said, it clearly pops the balloon of the guys who thought the playoffs were in the cards.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
It is a bit odd that Adam Gase has so few big uptick games, ones in which the team drastically exceeds expectation. There should be a sampling of that regardless of role...home or road, underdog or favorite, divisional or not. It is something to keep an eye on going forward, but no big deal now.
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Not saying we can't win games this way, but Gase does seem to be more conservative and predictable than I thought he would be. Of course, this may have a lot to do with our guys comfort level with the system. I thought by year two we would see our offense evolve and become more varied, but then Tannehill reinjured himself, etc.. It will be interesting to see how we bounce back. I am confident that the first person Gase will be looking for improvement from is himself.
 
After this season is all said and done his two year comparison with Tony Sparano will be eye opening. The tale of easy schedule vs. tough schedule year to year.

2008 = 2016.
2009 = 2017.

Same old Dolphins.
 
Aqua and Orange said:
I still think Gase is a very, very good coach. Not today. Wow.

His play calling has been abysmal these first two weeks. "Predictable" is an understatement. I don't know if he is keeping his big plays too close to the vest as it's a long season, but there is nothing special right now about this offense.

At one point, my friends and I started laughing and yelling what was going to happen before the ball was snapped...but never changed. Each series we yelled: "First down: pass! Second down: run! Third down: Pass! TIME TO PUNT!" We were right every damn time. Even on 2nd and super long they would still run, almost as if Gase had some quota he had to hit for repetitiveness in play calling.

Yuck.
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You don't keep your big plays close to the vest when are playing a division opponent. These are the most important games on the schedule.
 
It’s one game.... against the WORST team in the NFL and we made them look good. McCLOWN look like a franchise QB. Just wait until we face a Real QB like Brees, Ryan or Brady; we will get raped. The failures with this team starts at the top. How many more years can the Oline get blaimed? Does the coaching staff and front office not pick the players in the draft and FA? Miami is gling to be lucky to go 5-11 this year and when the defense is dead last....the Burke experiment needs to end!

Hell, I’m calling it now, Miami only wins one divisional game this year which will be the Jets at home. If we lose that one, blow this team up and start over.
 
Daytona Fin said:
Where is that tempo, no huddle offense we have been promised? They can barely beat the play clock.
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Same story as last few years - were going to have tempo

The mismanagement of the play clock all day was inexcusable also. Looked like the only player paying attention to it was Landry.
 
Daytona Fin said:
Where is that tempo, no huddle offense we have been promised? They can barely beat the play clock.
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I actually think that one of the best drives this season so far was their first drive last week. I was super excited even though we only got a FG. But then Gase started calling 1st down run, 2nd down run and putting us in a 3rd in long. Wtf! The Oline is garbage again so let’s just stay in the GUN with no less than 4 WRs. I miss Marino lol
 
Well simply put we're not as good as last year.

If it wasn't obvious enough already, this playbook was made for Ryan Tannehill. Seeing option reads and bootlegs run by Cutler is comical. The guy is a slug who was getting ready for a cushy TV job a month ago. Ryan is great at throwing on the run, as he's done it his entire career going back to A&M. Cutler is a pocket passer. It's up to Gase to tailor the playbook to keep him in the gun or the pocket. I feel like Cutler can still sling it, but Gase isn't doing any favors right now.

Not to mention we don't have ol' reliable Branden Albert at left tackle anymore - of course Tunsil is struggling to adjust from playing guard all last year - and we lost Ted Larsen for half the season and Asiata isn't ready for game time, forcing the team to play both Steen and Bushrod again.

Also not to mention we lost our starting middle linebacker (Raekwon) and our starting strong side linebacker (Timmins), who we depended on to be a leader on this defense, essentially abandoned this team in the final hours and is now reaping the consequences, forcing us to play the younger versions of Kelvin Sheppard and Jason Trusnik. Byron Maxwell has gone back to sucking like he did early last season, and our holdover for until TJ McDonald comes back (Nate Allen) isn't helping us all that much.


Bad offensive line again, bad linebackers again, bad secondary again. Seems reminiscent to last year, really.

I still have faith in Gase, I know he's too smart to completely lose his way - but there's no mistaking that the Jets game was essentially rock bottom for him and the team. Nowhere to go but up.
 
Daytona Fin said:
Where is that tempo, no huddle offense we have been promised? They can barely beat the play clock.
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Maybe it has somthing to do with a new QB not being in tune with his WR. The last 2 weeks where hard on this team. There is no way that they wouldn’t regress some. The week in California there was no way for them to be 100% it’s not possible. Then they finally get home and have to game plan around trying to get there life back together. If you notice all 4 teams that had to deal with the 2 hurricanes got blown out, Houston in its home opener. Jacksonville in it home opener, TB, and us on the road this week. They may be pros, but all pros have bad days after life changing events.
 
Gsmack_42 said:
Maybe it has somthing to do with a new QB not being in tune with his WR. The last 2 weeks where hard on this team. There is no way that they wouldn’t regress some. The week in California there was no way for them to be 100% it’s not possible. Then they finally get home and have to game plan around trying to get there life back together. If you notice all 4 teams that had to deal with the 2 hurricanes got blown out, Houston in its home opener. Jacksonville in it home opener, TB, and us on the road this week. They may be pros, but all pros have bad days after life changing events.
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Cutler looked in tune vs SD in second half. I'm not giving a pass to them because of Hurricane. They had first class accommodations. Bucs and Jags have had dominate wins and even Texans have shown heart. So no excuses for Hurricane from me.
 
We sucked at the beginning of last year too. Some of you fools don't understand that a team doesn't come together overnight.
 
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