DefensiveEnd76
Football Guru
I saw a person say Miami should've kept Campbell.
LMFAO
At least our guys played physical under Campbell. We have a team filled with cream puffs on both sides of the ball.
I saw a person say Miami should've kept Campbell.
LMFAO
Somewhat, but I always felt we were fortunate with a cupcake schedule.Were you impressed when he led us to the playoffs last year?
Don't overreact to a game in which the opponent owned a massive situational edge. I realize that topic is not always popular around here, or on fan sites in general, but it is the reality.
I had a friend from Las Vegas call me on Wednesday. He was almost out of breath: "Every angle in the world points to the Jets. Your best angles point to the Jets. But how can I trust McCown with a huge bet?"
Exactly. I told him I understood the dilemma. I was in the same spot.
I ended up making a regular play on the Jets. He tripled his typical amount and was chirping all afternoon in repeated texts. I had other friends who went much higher than triple, plus money line. And likewise on betting sites in general, where the Jets were a wise guy bonanza.
That type of thing will baffle the mainstream crowd. And it is understandable. It is one of the reasons I have so much trouble juggling my Las Vegas background and situational knowledge with posting on fan sites. The topics and therefore the perspective could not be more divergent. The betting side doesn't always win out but when there is a seemingly bizarre result it is most often explained by situational influence, and situational influence is all but ignored by traditional sports fans and media. Every week is viewed as the same.
I will try to be more accepting and less critical of the technical football guys. That is one of my goals...starting now. Ross made an awesome statement about being less divisive when we disagree with others. Absolutely. I gained a ton of respect for him. That said, it is going to be difficult for me. The technical type of focus is best applied to college football, where there are dramatic gaps in ability level and situational aspects are not nearly as relevant. In the NFL I'm sure the Wharton-type guys feel very sharp when they find some video clip that supposedly represents something significant. Meanwhile, it's a Crowd on Crowd league so plays here and there don't mean much at all. Situational factors can and do wipe out the findings the following week.
That's the reason the Jets were a top pick on wise guys wagering forums but the technical football guys could never back that side. They can only deal with what they've seen on the field, and recently. Nothing on the field in 2017 pointed to the Jets. But that basically doesn't mean anything at all. I'm sure the technical guys were forecasting Ajayi to ramble, and so forth.
The Dolphins were in satisfied fat cat mode as a road team coming off a victory. That's especially dangerous for Crowd teams, which aren't dependable in the first place. This game would have been considerably more competitive physically if the Dolphins had lost to the Chargers.
More importantly, the Jets were in an incredibly favorable spot. That's what prompted my friend's phone call. He knew from my research decades ago that teams that open with consecutive road games -- and lose both of them -- are extremely energized and effective in that game three home opener. The advantage is magnified to absurd level when they happen to be a divisional home underdog in that home opener.
My stuff is on spreadsheets dating to 1978. But conveniently I found someone else who posted the same angle, albeit a more recent and limited sample. For all I know he stole it from me because I stupidly blabbed this angle, among many others, when I was trying to impress as a newcomer on Las Vegas radio beginning in the late '80s.
Here is that link, from 2011. Note the 56-21 against the spread quote in the summary of the Lions vs. Vikings game from that year:
https://miniblob.com/week-3-nfl-picks/
Dating to 1978 the percentage doesn't match that 56-21 but it is huge, nearly 70% against the number.
And keep in mind the normal home divisional underdog assignment is much lower than +6.5. It is closer to +3 average. To receive +6.5 at home against a Crowd team was surreal overreactive insult.
When my friend called on Wednesday he gave me some teams trends that I was not aware of. I more or less don't care about team trends. They are fragile and less dependable than angles that apply to the league as a block. I've always scoffed at them, after wasting so much time researching them in the mid '80s before I wised up.
Anyway, he told me the local Las Vegas radio handicapping shows were blabbing a trend favoring the Jets: 14-5 straight up and 16-2-1 against the spread the week after playing two consecutive road games. I quickly looked it up. The numbers were correct. That's what influenced him to triple his normal wager. And the guy who writes the betting trend column for the Las Vegas Review Journal must have been listening to the same programs, because I noticed that he printed the identical findings in his Saturday column, while picking the Jets to win, 16-13.
Adam Gase has still done a heck of a job. He is saddled with the ultimate Crowd team, so whenever expectations get too high for this team you can matter of factly assume lower, and the opposite is true also. With Jay Cutler the lows are going to be lower than with Tannehill. I posted that during preseason and I think it was consensus. When things are going poorly Cutler is going to press more, and his mechanics are worse, and he won't care as much about garbage time touchdowns. That buzzer score today was mostly an accident.
There are 32 teams in the National Football League. Only one of them has managed 6 to 10 regular season wins in each of the past 8 seasons dating to 2009. We do it emphatically and on merit, seldom tinkering with the parameters of 6 or 10 as opposed to asserting the midsection as our home. It's basically a Crowd franchise, let alone Crowd team. Our owner is Crowd. Our general managers have been Crowd. Coaches are Crowd. Our patched stadium is Crowd. Even when we needlessly lessened our uniforms and logo we kept them in Crowd bracketing instead of butchering to the bottom of the league.
I've called it the most boring era in franchise history. So much Crowd. I prefer to be entertained and kept guessing, as opposed to knowing I can predict 8-8 without any thought at all.
I don't have patience for the technical guys who like to imagine and shout all type of Cream and Crap variables, apparently swirling around and counteracting each other, like these storms in the Atlantic.
It is a bit odd that Adam Gase has so few big uptick games, ones in which the team drastically exceeds expectation. There should be a sampling of that regardless of role...home or road, underdog or favorite, divisional or not. It is something to keep an eye on going forward, but no big deal now.
It is a bit odd that Adam Gase has so few big uptick games, ones in which the team drastically exceeds expectation. There should be a sampling of that regardless of role...home or road, underdog or favorite, divisional or not. It is something to keep an eye on going forward, but no big deal now.
You don't keep your big plays close to the vest when are playing a division opponent. These are the most important games on the schedule.I still think Gase is a very, very good coach. Not today. Wow.
His play calling has been abysmal these first two weeks. "Predictable" is an understatement. I don't know if he is keeping his big plays too close to the vest as it's a long season, but there is nothing special right now about this offense.
At one point, my friends and I started laughing and yelling what was going to happen before the ball was snapped...but never changed. Each series we yelled: "First down: pass! Second down: run! Third down: Pass! TIME TO PUNT!" We were right every damn time. Even on 2nd and super long they would still run, almost as if Gase had some quota he had to hit for repetitiveness in play calling.
Yuck.
Where is that tempo, no huddle offense we have been promised? They can barely beat the play clock.
Where is that tempo, no huddle offense we have been promised? They can barely beat the play clock.
Where is that tempo, no huddle offense we have been promised? They can barely beat the play clock.
Cutler looked in tune vs SD in second half. I'm not giving a pass to them because of Hurricane. They had first class accommodations. Bucs and Jags have had dominate wins and even Texans have shown heart. So no excuses for Hurricane from me.Maybe it has somthing to do with a new QB not being in tune with his WR. The last 2 weeks where hard on this team. There is no way that they wouldn’t regress some. The week in California there was no way for them to be 100% it’s not possible. Then they finally get home and have to game plan around trying to get there life back together. If you notice all 4 teams that had to deal with the 2 hurricanes got blown out, Houston in its home opener. Jacksonville in it home opener, TB, and us on the road this week. They may be pros, but all pros have bad days after life changing events.