Buyer Beware....1st round QB's.

[jbond]

AJ isn't in his 2nd year in the NFL...or 3rd....or 4th.....This will be his 5th season (upcoming). He is a younger version of Jay Fiedler. Where Jay had the mental game down he didn't have the talent....where AJ has the talent he doesn't have the mental part. AJ will be a mediocre QB. Nothing he has done since high school suggests otherwise. Unless of course, old dogs can learn new tricks and get rid of 10 years of habit and training.

I'm not 'blind' about his potential...he has the arm. I just don't see him getting the mental part down anytime soon. He's had years behind Donovan to learn (could you imagine him stuck behind...Jay for a few years?) and couldn't beat out Jay in preseason (how sad is that...). He's like a receiver that runs a 4.3 but only manages to catch onto the ball 1/2 the time or a RB that could be awesome if he didn't fumble one out of 3 carries. Flashes of 'brilliance' and 'potential'....yes....but that only lasts so long.

I hope AJ picks it up next year or he's gone (regardless if we draft a QB or not in this draft). Then again...if he doesn't...maybe that position will be upgraded :)

 

[Wildbill3]

Exactly, and you can't really say anything for the QB's that were drafted within the last couple of years, hell, Roethlisberger did pretty darn well last year, ya think?

funny you should mention ben, there was only one other qb to have a winning record his rookie season. Ben was the exception not the rule.

 

[Phishstix]

Favre is a very good example about having patience and didn't Favre flourish under Holmgrem?

why do people keep on bringing up farve. he was a pro-bowler the 1st season he started, so when he went through a sophomore slump, he was already a proven commodity and they knew what they had. from his 3rd year on he has been a beast. the feeley situation in no shape or form resembles the farve situation.

 

[adamprez2003]

To start with, if I was the G.M. I would trade down. If we don't trade down I am for Derrick Johnson being drafted being that I believe he is the best defensive player available and my philosophy to building a super bowl champion is to create a stifling defense that ranks in the top three. But having said all that I wouldn't be upset with almost anything Saban does under the premise that him and Spielman know more about the prospects than any of us. Would anybody here truly be upset if we end up with Rodgers, Smith, Williams, Benson, Brown, Edwards, Johnson or Rolle? I don't think so. We don't know what type of team he is going to run yet. We all have ideas but none of us really know. I realize the purpose of these boards is to make each us seem like we know what we're talking about but the truth is only Spielman and Saban have an idea about what they need to bring about the team they want. The bottom line is I feel very good about how this team has done in free agency and I am looking forward to the draft because I believe we will do well there too. We are in great shape sitting there with the #2. Trust me, offers will come to us for that pick and it will be up to Saban and Spielman to determine whether they are adequate. Those offers will come from teams looking for a quarterback. Whoever we do pick - a QB, pick another position or trade down I have a good feeling that whoever it is he will help us and that's the only thing I care about

 

[stroker351w408c]

why do people keep on bringing up farve. he was a pro-bowler the 1st season he started, so when he went through a sophomore slump, he was already a proven commodity and they knew what they had. from his 3rd year on he has been a beast. the feeley situation in no shape or form resembles the farve situation.

Favre was a probowler w/ Atlanta in his first year? I did not know that. Why did Atlanta decide to trade Favre then? Forgive my ignorance but did they have an established QB at the time?

 

[KillerJosh373]

This is a stupid argument because football is a team sport, 1 player cant win a SB. If a bad team gets the #1 pick in the draft and takes a player like Peyton Manning (an elite QB) it doesnt mean they should automatically win the SB. Because that team could have terrible coaching or could have a bad defense or a bad o-line etc. You can't say 1st rd. QBs are no good because none since Aikman have won a SB. If a team is smart and has built a complete team, a 1st rd. QB can easily win a SB.

 

[Phishstix]

Favre was a probowler w/ Atlanta in his first year? I did not know that. Why did Atlanta decide to trade Favre then? Forgive my ignorance but did they have an established QB at the time?

i said the first season he started, not his first season. and atlanta actually did have an established qb- chris miller. he was a pro-bowler farve's rookie year and was only 26 yrs old at the time, so it looked like he had a promising future. he had another good season in 92, but he got so many concussions that he had pcs and was never the same again.

 

[Jaj]

Getting a QB as young as some of these guys are developing them well for a year or two could be the smartest move Saban could make. Teams can always build franchises around QBs, and they can always rebuild franchises around QBs. RBs can be found without too much trouble. One is available right now and is Travis Henry. He can be had for a conditional in 06. He is a solid RB who could pound out over 1200 yards for us and can do it all the red zone. Instead of spending a huge contract on a RB let's do it on a QB, someone we can build around.

So what if Aaron Rodgers is 6-2. He's got every tool he needs...

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Limiting an argument to Super Bowl victories is ridiculous

To quote Bill Parcells from a couple of years ago, "Do you know how difficult it is to win the Super Bowl?"

Evaluating only QBs picked 1st in the draft is absurd. Tiny samples are irrelevant. Using the past few years, I can argue you should only draft QBs in the 6th round.

Each year, 3% of NFL teams win the Super Bowl. This would be a much more valid analysis if you looked at overall winning percentage and playoff appearances of every team, then broken down based on where the starting QB was drafted. Go back at least a decade for a worthwhile study.

 

[jguig]

If we are just interested in getting people drafted at the top of the draft, I think Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch are still available. These guys make me very nervous about the propensity for top picks to fall flat.

 

[HybridPHIN 23]

How many First round QBs led their teams into the playoffs this past year????

 

[HybridPHIN 23]

How many First round QBs led their teams into the playoffs this past year????

Manning, McNabb, Vick, Culpepper, Pennington, Roethlisberger

Half the teams were led by former first rounders

This doesn't count Drew Brees, who was selected #32 when there was only 31 teams in 2001.

 

[BlueFin]

The last quarterback selected No. 1 overall to win a Super Bowl within 10 years of being drafted was Troy Aikman. Aikman won his first ring more than 10 years ago with a Cowboys team that was the most talented top-to-bottom in recent memory.

So much for selecting a QB with a top pick....those are the facts...and Rodgers or Smith won't change them....they are juniors....not ready for the big time...better to use the pick for a player who can start and play right away and contribute...take Brown, Edwards or Merriman....select a player like Campbell...who has everything the juniors have...but won't cost you an arm and a leg.

Blah blah blah.....the fact is 50% of the Superbowls have been won by quarterbacks drafted high in the first round, even though they account for a very small percentage of available QB's every year as compared to QB's drafted rounds 2-7, or undrafted free agents.

Another fact is there have only been 39 Superbowl winners in the past 39 years...duh, so obviously its extremely difficult to win the Superbowl.

Why would you limit your study only to QB's drafted number one overall? Besides winning the Superbowl, go back and count all the QB's drafted in the first round that got to Superbowls only to fall one game short, Elway a bunch of times, Marino, Kelly four times, McNabb, McNair..........

Lame argument.

 

[General Tso]

Noooooooooooooooo..I don't want to be in the same situation SD is in...AJ's fine..you guys jump on any bandwagon that comes alone..I'm glad Bret Farve didn't play for us last year in his 2nd year of NFL..you'd want to replace him too. You don't have the patience of a mold hill. Give AJ a year to prove himself..please for once, see the potential..

How in the world are you comparing Feeley's performances in Philly and Miami to Favre? Favre completed over 60% of his passes each of his first four years as a starter in Green Bay. Feeley has completed 60% of his passes in 3 games during his NFL career.

 

[General Tso]

Yes it would, that's tied up Cap for a player who's not on the field and keeping us from getting the low end players who really pushes this team over.. Why is it that AJ may end up being only a okay QB and Smith and Rogers are going to be great players and haven't played a down in the NFL..They have no more potential than AJ..if he's given a chance in a good O. no hot reads, no oline, still threw bullets when he had the chance..yep, I'm on AJ's bandwagon..someone who's showed he can play in the NFL...just with Jr's who had scripted private workout without the rush than AJ faced.

So you're basically saying no one should ever draft a QB because no college QB has ever played a down in the NFL and we don't know for sure if they're going to be great?

Rodgers and Smith have shown that they can throw the football accurately and they have good to very good mobility. Things Feeley has not shown in college, Philly, or Miami. And these 2 QB's have done much more than just look good in private workouts. 1 led his team to an undefeated season and a 21-1 record in 2 years. The other is the last QB to beat USC, he nearly did it again this year while completing 29/34 passes, and he beat a much better Virginia Tech team in their bowl game the previous season.

There is a reason these guys will be selected in the top 3 this year and Feeley was a fifth rounder taken after Sage Rosenfels.... they clearly have a much higher chance of being good starters in the NFL.