Hurricane Irma Only thread

[Michael Scott]

Shorty just took a wobble south, but still pulling her Western path strongly. Looks like she will make landfall in Cuba after all, possibly within an hour.

Will that knock her off the coast completely to the West? Devastating for Tampa if so, as that's probably where she'd turn back in.

 

[Jetsfanatic]

From a Jets fan on Long Island wishing all of Dolphins Nation in Florida Godspeed. Be safe!

 

[AL R]

 

[Michael Scott]

Here is that loop.

Here is another one

And one more

Is GOM not even out of the question at this point now?

This is insane.

 

[Michael Scott]

This is just awesome. I was gonna spray some cheesy 'bring it on' type garbage, but am now inspired.

 

[Michael Scott]

What

 

[Jetsfanatic]

If that gets you safely through the storm bring it on but the Jets play the Bills for 1st place on Sunday!!

 

[Michael Scott]

Is the next Euro at 2am? I'll be too far gone by then to even find the eye wall in an image

 

[circumstances]

Is GOM not even out of the question at this point now?

This is insane.

That's the best case scenario for Dade and Broward.

 

[quasi]

Is the next Euro at 2am? I'll be too far gone by then to even find the eye wall in an image

I believe there's an update at 11 PM

 

[Yessir]

The Keys are going to play the role of Homestead in 92. Only much worse. Direct hit with the eye headed there way. All fin fans on the west coast, be safe.

 

[AL R]

If that gets you safely through the storm bring it on but the Jets play the Bills for 1st place on Sunday!!

Thanks for the well wishes my friend. I saw that and just couldn't resist posting it. Lol. My brother and law is a huge jets fan so..this stuff is normal back and forth for us.

 

[Michael Scott]

 

[phins_4_ever]

Is GOM not even out of the question at this point now?

This is insane.

I haven't seen the GMO track. A wobble usually means nothing else but that the hurricane makes a quick jump and continuous on its track, just a tad parallel to the original track. I am tracking hurricanes since 1994 when the NHC entered its forecasts (as text only docs back then) on the internet. I used a software called Hurrtrak. I had to input everything manually. Took me almost 30 min to have a forecast track. LOL

A wobble can make a big difference close to land though. I remember Hurricane Erin in 1995 targeted Palm Beach County and just before landfall made quick jog to the north and hit Vero Beach instead. When a hurricane is pushed over land because of a wobble it could change its future significantly.
a) Is the eye completely on land? If only a portion is on land it still gets some of its fuel from the ocean. The change may or may not be just a parallel track. In this case a tad further to the west.
b) If the eye completely on land it will have an effect on intensity and internal structure. Depending how long Irma is on land it could lose some structure or a lot. Right now Irma is steered by upper level atmospheric patterns. If Irma would lose enough structure mid level atmospheric patterns would become the prevailing steering influence.

The wobble is too close to the next advisory and forecast track though. If the NHC would incorporate a wobble they may just gently shift the track a little more westward but based on my experience they may just put a note into the Discussion "a wobble to the WSW has been observed and an impact to a future track and intensity will be made with the forecast" (or something to that extend).

It also depends on the NHC forecaster who writes the Discussions. If Lixion Avila is the writer he probably will mention it. He is one of the most experienced forecasters at the NHC.

 

[phins_4_ever]

They call it a landfall in Cuba and the keep Irma straddling the coastline and the forecast has now been adjusted further west. Florida Southeast Coast is now outside the cone of error.