Interresting stats, follow up on offense balance.

[nyashfan]

Shouright - I had another thought pertaining to the argument that the Dolphins' rushing yards per attempt places them in the middle of the pack, implying that their unwillingness to run the ball is not related to their lack of success.

How important is the standard deviation of a team's yards per rush? The eyeball test leads one to believe that the Dolphins are among the least successful teams running the ball. It seems that the Dolphins' average yards per rush might be inflated by a handful of large gains offset by a plethora of below average gains.

I would expect that teams whose rushing average is based on a lower standard deviation would have better records as it would demonstrate that they are running the ball more consistently. Now that I think about it more, skewness of yards per rush is probably a better statistic than standard deviation. Or perhaps the coefficient of variation which is average divided by standard deviation.

I am assuming you do these calculations in Excel, so I'm sure it comes with a skewness function. Anyway, what I am trying to suggest is a means of discounting the impact of the handful of very large rushing gains.

Curious to get your thoughts...


Edit - just noticed that Egnew The Goat echoed the same sentiment.

The Dolphins average 4.1 yards per carry, which is the league average. If the Dolphins "can't do it," then neither can half the teams in the league.

 

[HoneyB]

but we can't do it consistently. Our average is inflated because Miller gets 1 yd. 1 yd. -3 yd. 3 yd 1 yd. -5 yd. 40 yard 1 yd 2 yd. 0 yd 0 yd 4 yd -1 yd 17 yd... Etc.

That's exactly right. I know Sherman is trying to limit the 3 and outs. He doesn't want to kill drives. But the thing is this, you HAVE NO CHOICE. John Madden even used to say that when we had Marino and Shula, Shula went against his better judgement and when we struggled, allowed Marino to just air it out all the time. Madden said, you have to run it, period.

It's the coaches job to make it work. It doesn't matter what the yards per carry is. You still need to run the ball. And if you think it's tough NOW, wait until the snow comes, and wait until postseason, because great teams will eat you alive if you can't run the ball.

 

[Shouright]

Shouright - I had another thought pertaining to the argument that the Dolphins' rushing yards per attempt places them in the middle of the pack, implying that their unwillingness to run the ball is not related to their lack of success.

How important is the standard deviation of a team's yards per rush? The eyeball test leads one to believe that the Dolphins are among the least successful teams running the ball? It seems that the Dolphins' average yards per rush might be inflated by a handful of large gains offset by a plethora of below average gains.

I would expect that teams whose rushing average is based on a lower standard deviation would have better records as it would demonstrate that they are running the ball more consistently. Now that I think about it more, skewness of yards per rush is probably a better statistic than standard deviation.

I am assuming you do these calculations in Excel, so I'm sure it comes with a skewness function. Anyway, what I am trying to suggest is a means of discounting the impact of the handful of very large rushing gains.

Curious to get your thoughts...


Edit - just noticed that Egnew The Goat echoed the same sentiment.

You're talking about run "success rate" here, which is found on this page (look for the column entitled "Run SR(%)"):

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php

The Dolphins' percentage of successful runs (41.1%) places it 12th in the league right now.

 

[nyashfan]

Wow! Hard to believe the Dolphins rank 12th! I looked at the glossary but don't have a feel as to what defines a successful run. Suppose it's 3rd and 18 and the Dolphins play it safe and run, gaining 7 yards. The defense would be conceding the run to protect against a big passing play. Would that be categorized as a successful run? I think it is very ambitious to define these advanced statistics with proper context.

You're talking about run "success rate" here, which is found on this page (look for the column entitled "Run SR(%)"):

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php

The Dolphins' percentage of successful runs (41.1%) places it 12th in the league right now.

 

[vt_dolfan]

I think the problem again lies with our line. We did some of our best running..when we used essentially an extra o lineman. It seems like...our line can run block ..but only when we pack the extra beef. Which then takes away from our passing attack. We can't run and pass out of the same formations.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

 

[hoops]

does anyone really believe that miami can line up and run the ball and consistently be in 2nd and 6??? i mean really...wtf

teams laugh at our run game...

 

[Shouright]

I think the problem again lies with our line. We did some of our best running..when we used essentially an extra o lineman. It seems like...our line can run block ..but only when we pack the extra beef. Which then takes away from our passing attack. We can't run and pass out of the same formations.

The only objective data we have with regard to the run blocking of the offensive line tell us the line isn't any worse in that regard than the average team.

---------- Post added at 12:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:34 PM ----------

does anyone really believe that miami can line up and run the ball and consistently be in 2nd and 6??? i mean really...wtf

teams laugh at our run game...

Well then they should also laugh at half of the run games in the league, since the Dolphins perform better in terms of yards per carry than about that many teams.

Although yet again, rushing attempts predict wins, not rushing success.

 

[Shouright]

Wow! Hard to believe the Dolphins rank 12th! I looked at the glossary but don't have a feel as to what defines a successful run. Suppose it's 3rd and 18 and the Dolphins play it safe and run, gaining 7 yards. The defense would be conceding the run to protect against a big passing play. Would that be categorized as a successful run? I think it is very ambitious to define these advanced statistics with proper context.

A run is considered "successful" if it results in positive expected points added, which refers to the following:

Expected Points (EP) – The value of the current down, distance, and field position situation in terms of future expected net point advantage. In other words, it is the net point value a team can expect given a particular combination of down, distance, and field position. First and goal at the one represents an EP near 6, while 3rd and 20 at a team’s own one yard line represents an EP of about -2. EP differs from Win Probability (WP) in that it does not take into account the game score and time remaining.

Expected Points Added (EPA) – The difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the start of a play and the EP at the end of they play. EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. An individual player’s EPA is the sum of the EPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/08/glossary.html

 

[NBP81]

does anyone really believe that miami can line up and run the ball and consistently be in 2nd and 6??? i mean really...wtf

teams laugh at our run game...

No, but at the same time, do you really believe Tannehill is at a point in his career where he can win games by himself against opposing Ds that don't have to respect the run at all?

 

[phishxhead]

Stats are just stats sometimes. If you just watch the games it is pretty evident that these guys are bad at running the ball, especially now with the 3rd string OL.

 

[Shouright]

Stats are just stats sometimes. If you just watch the games it is pretty evident that these guys are bad at running the ball, especially now with the 3rd string OL.

Or perhaps you're simply falling prey to confirmation bias.

 

[NBP81]

Stats are just stats sometimes. If you just watch the games it is pretty evident that these guys are bad at running the ball, especially now with the 3rd string OL.

Then just run Clay up the middle 25 times a game for all I care, you`ll get 2-4 yards every time, never lose ten yards. At least then, the D wont have a choice but to respect the fact that we might run it...

 

[phishxhead]

Or perhaps you're simply falling prey to confirmation bias.

Could be. Just watching and using common sense, I'm not sure how getting stuffed for negative yards consistently helps THIS team win.

 

[hoops]

No, but at the same time, do you really believe Tannehill is at a point in his career where he can win games by himself against opposing Ds that don't have to respect the run at all?

no...most these other young qbs in the same type scenario ie you stop the run though warts wise are showing much more than ryan tannehills i can tell ya that...so many crutch qbs in this league...can't play from the pocket can't read the field and coverage

but you also aren't gonna win getting yourself in 3rd and 8 over and over cause you know rushing attempts lead to wins either jamming the ball into 8 man fronts when you can't get any push...this stuff is so football dumb it floors me...all more 3rd and long means is more pressure on your suspect pass pro....

i don't care what that stat of 4.1 ypc says you watch the damn games this team cannot run the ball with any consistency against anyone pretty much...god dang tell that dude to shove that stupid stat up his ***

placing numbers in a vacuum is flat out ignorant when it comes to football...they dont account for what kind of defenses the opposition shows you or how you have to allocate personnel to get the results you do etc...just flat vacuum no common sense or situational awareness accounted for at all...but hey that's what he drops all day long

 

[Shouright]

Could be. Just watching and using common sense, I'm not sure how getting stuffed for negative yards consistently helps THIS team win.

Are you aware of any data that support the belief that the Dolphins get stuffed for negative yards any more often than the average team in the league?

The data I'm aware of actually points out that they're 12th in the league in terms of their percentage of successful runs.

That said, however, once again, rushing attempts predict wins, not rushing success.