Is Tua Better than Any Quarterback Prospect Since Luck?

[jim1]

The Dolphins must really like the 2020 and 2021 draft prospects to make the recent trades of Tunsil and Fitzpatrick. But, more specifically, I have to think the front office absolutely loves Tua or perhaps a couple of the quarterback prospects in 2020. I'm not sold yet on Herbert and I'm not convinced (yet) that Fromm will be special either.

The question I wonder is if Tua is a better prospect than what we've seen over the last few years? To my eye, I'd say he's better than any of the prospects over the last two drafts. I know he has an advantage with the talent around him etc. but the same thing was said about Brady when he came out. Just want to put it out there to see what others think.

It definitely seems like this entire rebuild is about positioning the franchise to draft Tua.

No, and I'd rather have Jake Fromm.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

He's right up there.

 

[dolfan91]

Geez -- Herbert and Lawrence are certainly "prototypical" in terms of size, arm, yes????

Or are you referring to the Herman Munster prototype?

JK.

BTW Rosen fits the mold, yes?

Of course both Herbert and Lawrence are prototypical in terms of size. It's the hype that concerns me. Lawrence has not played up to his expectations so far this year. And from what I've read, scouts are starting to question his abilities. Herbert is certainly big and has lots of tools, but its between the ears that, I've read has scouts concerned. He doesn't seem to be a leader. He's somewhat layed back.

 

[BigNastyFish]

If course both Herbert and Lawrence are prototypical in terms of size. It's the hype that concerns me. Lawrence has not played up to his expectations so far this year. And from what I've read, scouts are starting to question his abilities. Herbert is certainly big and has lots of tools, but its between the ears that, I've read has scouts concerned. He doesn't seem to be a leader. He's somewhat layed back.

Lawrence has another whole year -- Herbert is super smart but... what concerns me

is his tendency to throw behind receivers running across his field of vision as well as

his tendency to throw high to receivers down field in relative stationary lateral axis.

In other words I gotta question his depth of field perception as well as ability

to effectively guage a moving a target... Watch for it.

 

[dolfan91]

Lawrence has another whole year -- Herbert is super smart but... what concerns me

is his tendency to throw behind receivers running across his field of vision as well as

his tendency to throw high to receivers down field in relative stationary lateral axis.

In other words I gotta question his depth of field perception as well as ability

to effectively guage a moving a target... Watch for it.

I understand you. Another point about Herbert; For example, leadership to me is a QB who can put a team on his back and March down the field and win a game. I'm sorry I just don't get that feeling with Herbert. In today's Giants/Bucs game, Daniel Jones walked into the Huddle and said, "Let's EFFFFN SCORE"!!! The entire Giant offense responded. THAT'S LEADERSHIP!!! Miami needs Leadership.

 

[BigNastyFish]

I understand you. For example, leadership to me is a QB who can put a team on his back and March down the field and win a game. I'm sorry I just don't get that feeling with Herbert. In today's Giants/Bucs game, Daniel Jones walked into the Huddle and said, "Let's EFFFFN SCORE"!!! The entire Giant offense responded. THAT'S LEADERSHIP!!! Miami needs Leadership.

Agree. And then you gotta produce.

Have not seen a snap of Jones...

But he should (better) excel in the "intangibles" based on his resume.

 

[dolfan91]

Agree. And then you gotta produce.

Have not seen a snap of Jones...

But he should (better) excel in the "intangibles" based on his resume.

Exactly and was one of the reasons I liked Danny Dimes!! As they affectionately call him in New York. Jones may not be the most athletic QB but he's got that QB brain. Always thinking.

 

[Mr Fan]

Do you think Herbert is an elite caliber quarterback? Could he be Miami's target? Obviously, Miami must really like this quarterback class. Maybe one of two of them anyway.

Herbert looks like the boom or bust type draft selection. If you believe he has the psychology and intelligence to play at a high level you take him as he has all the tools. BUT and it is a BIG BUT, does he has those two characteristics? I suspect this year will tell.

Fromm is the safest the picks, if he works out...reminds me of Drew Brees. If he doesn't Alex Smith.

I'm looking for real #1 pick otherwise what is the difference between Rosen and these guys?

 

[Mr Fan]

I've just had a vision of the future and of every lazy draft preview between January and April. SURE THIS KID HAS TO TOOLS BUT CAN HE REALLY BE A GREAT NFL QB WITH SUCH AN INTERESTING FAMILY PSYCHOLOGY.

Unfortunately, we see today many QB's who have the physical ability and with the rule changes their statistics are grossly inflated and misleading.

There is a metric that has clearly developed where the psychology of the QB has become IMHO THE clear indicator of performance when physical skills are within acceptable norms for the position.

Lazy would be to say hey ALABAMA won and TUA was the QB with amazing stats thus he is the next coming of pick your savior. Looking deeper has already shown troubling signs (his play against on par defenses is eye opening).

In his defense I'm not saying is he is a 7th round pick. I am saying this is NOT John Elway coming out of school but he is significantly overhyped ala Jamis Winston (the hype not skillset nor character issue...they are very different people in both regards).

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Herbert looks like the boom or bust type draft selection. If you believe he has the psychology and intelligence to play at a high level you take him as he has all the tools. BUT and it is a BIG BUT, does he has those two characteristics? I suspect this year will tell.

Fromm is the safest the picks, if he works out...reminds me of Drew Brees. If he doesn't Alex Smith.

I'm looking for real #1 pick otherwise what is the difference between Rosen and these guys?

I haven't seen Herbert this year, but based on last year I agree with you. I do see that he's putting up unreal numbers this year. As bad as Miami is this year, there's a chance Cincy could sneak in there with the #1 overall. If that's the case, I think Herbert would be the Dolphins pick.

 

[BigNastyFish]

Herbert looks like the boom or bust type draft selection. If you believe he has the psychology and intelligence to play at a high level you take him as he has all the tools. BUT and it is a BIG BUT, does he has those two characteristics? I suspect this year will tell.

Fromm is the safest the picks, if he works out...reminds me of Drew Brees. If he doesn't Alex Smith.

I'm looking for real #1 pick otherwise what is the difference between Rosen and these guys?

I think there's a "visual processing skill" that QBs need at the highest level relating to depth perception and motion sensing. To the best of my knowledge it's not really tested but it clearly shows up on the field -- with guys that are great at hitting relatively stationary targets but tend to lose accuracy in vertical and/or horizontal planes with a rapidly moving target. For sure there's a LOT of mental/visual processing and muscular coordination involved to be highly accurate in both planes. Like some dudes are good with the deep ball (vertical plane) but are hit and miss with crossing pattern slats etc. Going way back, if you watch the old stuff, Elway was a classic example of having pin point accuracy to a stationary target down range -- and he could get the ball there FAST! But he was nowhere near as effective with rapidly moving targets (especially horizontal plane). Way back with Denver they ALWAYS had the receivers making moves that ended with a STOP and then Elway rifled the ball in.

Of course it makes total sense to design plays that your QB is highly proficient at executing -- and it's super rare to find a monster than can process the entire field and make consistently accurate throws in multiple planes with fast moving targets.

I think this is a big part of the "debate" regarding the QBs coming out this year.

As far as our immediate situation -- in my eyes Rosen demonstrated superior vertical plane vs. horizontal plane efficiency with rapidly moving targets (very small sample Dallas game). In fact the staff adjusted after some missed stuff and had mighty mouse squatting down on the short game and Rosen rifled the ball in fast and accurately! But go back to the slants and the plays looked "off " by a pretty significant margin.

Of course hitting rapidly moving targets requires superior "visual processing skill" and "system coordination" than rifling in a fast ball to a stationary target. And the vast majority of QBs have a notable deficiency in either vertical or horizontal planes when dealing with a fast moving target. I tend to believe it's a core "processing skill" and therefore if you see "issues" in college relating to this analysis then you're pretty much guaranteed you're gonna see them at the next level -- and in many cases it will be the difference between a legit NFL QB and just another also ran.

To this date, the ONLY human I've ever seen play QB that could attack both vertically and horizontally with lethal pin point accuracy and velocity was Marino. But even Dan was not as smooth and silky executing the dink and dunk as some others...

So I guess it's about how you rate certain performance characteristics in comparison to notable deficiencies...

Again, to me, I think that's a big part of the debate regarding the QBs coming out this year.

BNF

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Unfortunately, we see today many QB's who have the physical ability and with the rule changes their statistics are grossly inflated and misleading.

There is a metric that has clearly developed where the psychology of the QB has become IMHO THE clear indicator of performance when physical skills are within acceptable norms for the position.

Lazy would be to say hey ALABAMA won and TUA was the QB with amazing stats thus he is the next coming of pick your savior. Looking deeper has already shown troubling signs (his play against on par defenses is eye opening).

In his defense I'm not saying is he is a 7th round pick. I am saying this is NOT John Elway coming out of school but he is significantly overhyped ala Jamis Winston (the hype not skillset nor character issue...they are very different people in both regards).

What does this even mean?

Elway never even led Stanford to a bowl game.

I’m wondering if you even realize Andrew Luck only faced a “top 30” defense 4 times at Stanford. Never faced a top 10 defense. Much less a top 5 defense. Certainly not the two best defenses in the country. Or during his first season as a starter.

I can show you where every single franchise NFL quarterback that’s ever played struggled against elite college defenses. Tua didn’t even struggle against em - he just didn’t maintain the same torrid pace he did against everybody else. It’s insane to even suggest that it’s possible.


Here’s the reality - Tua has to play perfect in order for Alabama to win in these big time games. That’s not the case for any of these other quarterbacks.

 

[mrbunglez]

I hate that narrative of Tua struggles against top 5 defenses. Herbert struggles, Fromm struggles, Love struggles, “insert name” struggles. Point is every QB is going to have issues with top 5 defenses. I honestly hate that argument people give as to why Tua won’t survive in the NFL, yet spit out some other qbs name who struggles also sometimes even worse against excellent defenses.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I hate that narrative of Tua struggles against top 5 defenses. Herbert struggles, Fromm struggles, Love struggles, “insert name” struggles. Point is every QB is going to have issues with top 5 defenses. I honestly hate that argument people give as to why Tua won’t survive in the NFL, yet spit out some other qbs name who struggles also sometimes even worse against excellent defenses.

It’s insane. If Tua doesn’t play perfect against these top teams like he did against Kyler Murray and Oklahoma - Bama loses. But that’s not the case for these other QB’s - Fromm just beat a top 10 team with 50 yards passing at halftime.

If Tua trades one of those TD’s he threw against Oklahoma last year in the playoffs for an interception, Alabama loses that game.

He would’ve had to go 50 for 55 for 600 yards and 7 TD’s to win against Clemson. Every other QB that had 2 int games won all those games.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Jared Goff threw 5 INT’s against Utah.

Patrick Mahomes went 18 for 36 for 219 yards 1 TD and 2 INT’s in a 66-10 beatdown by Iowa State - the 102nd ranked defense in the country