Matt Barkley 6 TD clinic against UCLA

[hoops]

I think Andrew Luck is destined to be the best. He's more mentally agile from snap to whistle, and boasts more physical ability in his size, body strength and speed.

this is where the peyton manning like comparisons come in and i absolutely agree with it...mentally lucks by far the most advanced of the prospects...the most mentally advanced qb prospect in a long time...and when you add in the kind of athlete he brings to the table on top of it all i see no way this kid fails in the pros...just no way...if he's not a franchise qb i'll be dumbfounded

 

[ckparrothead]

There's no mystery here, and no philosophy of any note. Just looking at the 1st minute of each clip I see Luck throwing with more authority on out patterns. I look at 4:10 of the Luck tape and I see Luck make a throw up the gut to Fleener- not one of his best- that I prefer to a Barkley throw of the same type.

Luck just has a stronger, better arm. I don't even see the need for debate on this. Barkley reminds me of a Bob Griese type of arm. Luck reminds me of a Bert Jones type of arm. Weeden reminds me of a Tom Brady type of arm. And I grew up watching Griese, he was great. But if I'm drafting a guy high, I'd rather be looking at a Bert Jones type of arm and arm strength than a Griese arm, that's my preference. It's not philosophy, it's preference. I just don't prefer Matt Barkley, and if I'm drafting a QB I don't even think of taking Barkley over Luck, ever, and I'm planning on how and when to take Weeden. Again, my preference. You can cue up all the Barkley clips you want- his arm is not as good as Luck's (or Weeden's), period, and I've stated my reasoning behind that opinion on multiple occasions. And of course, it's just my opinion.

Not really. All you keep doing is stating your preference for a stronger arm, and stating that Luck has a stronger arm, over and over again. You've not isolated any throws or comparisons of similar throws between the two where anyone could look at the two and think yeah, you're right, Andrew luck definitely threw that ball stronger. On the other hand, I did exactly that, and I think most people that would follow through on the comparisons I brought up would admit that those thruws looked the same. Even you, in a roundabout way, accused me of somehow finding some kind of rare throws by Barkley that stand up to throws by Luck. That was a de facto admission on your part that I did indeed put up clips that show Barkley's arm being exactly as strong as Luck's.

I'm just waiting for you to pull up some incredible throws that Luck made that I or anyone else could look at and say yeah, I've not seen Matt Barkley do that. It should be an EASY task for you. There's no shortage of video on the two on YouTube. And if you keep having to search through reams and reams of footage on Luck to isolate a few throws like that, then maybe you ought to re-think your position that Andrew Luck's arm is "significantly" stronger. Give me a mere 5 minutes and I'll find you 5 throws Brandon Weeden's made that neither Matt Barkley nor Andrew Luck commonly make, if at all. That's the definition of a "significantly" stronger arm.

 

[jim1]

come on jim...i'm just rattlin your chain...i appreciate you bringing your own individual observations and opinions to the table...whether i agree with them or not...and with barkley i absolutely do not

Understood and fair enough. My point is so simple, whether it's agreed with or not- a lot of Barkley's passes take longer to get to their target than I would like to see. Same with Matt Moore although I kind of like him, same with Chad Pennington but not nearly as frustrating as some of Chad's sundial-timed thorws, same with Griese, who was very efficient but lacked a cannon. I would simply like to see more zip on Barkley's throws- that doesn't mean that he isn't a very good QB prospect, and that doesn't mean that he won't be a hell of a pro. We'll see how he progresses.

 

[hoops]

Understood and fair enough. My point is so simple, whether it's agreed with or not- a lot of Barkley's passes take longer to get to their target than I would like to see. Same with Matt Moore although I kind of like him, same with Chad Pennington but not nearly as frustrating as some of Chad's sundial-timed thorws, same with Griese, who was very efficient but lacked a cannon. I would simply like to see more zip on Barkley's throws- that doesn't mean that he isn't a very good QB prospect, and that doesn't mean that he won't be a hell of a pro. We'll see how he progresses.

i'm having a hard time understanding how you could be so much in ponders corner last year as a nfl qb given i know i saw plenty of evidence from him last year where the ball didn't always have a whole lot on it...i mean i was more concerned about his arm at that time than anyone else that i recall and watching him with the vikings the arms plenty good enough...and to me i don't see much difference b/t barkleys and ponders on college tape...ck sees drew brees like arm strength i see matt ryan arm...which isn't overly rocket like but its plenty good enough and with the way barkleys timing is so good and all i just don't see the arm remotely being an issue at the next level...not to mention barkley will get stronger in the next few years as his body matures and i'm sure there will be some more rpms on his throws as well...

and as for going against the grain...i got the patent on that my friend...ha ha

 

[jim1]

The throws I've been keying on are deep outs, throws to the flats and deep posts. Go to :15 of this clip. No offense, but your clips proved nothing to me, and I strongly doubt that any Luck footage will change your mind. Luck throws better deep posts. He throws better to the flat- the ball gets there more accurately and quicker than Barkley's throws, which in my mind is obviously important.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XAYqBDjFHo

Go to :20 of this clip, or go to pretty much any clip of Luck throwing shorter out patterns and you'll see a better quality ball than Barkley's. And specifically, I looked for out patterns in the Oregon St and Oregon games and I felt that Luck's throws were substantially better, especially, again, the outs and deep posts. It's just a better arm. And if you disagree, so be it. But I really don't see myself changing my mind- Luck's arm is significantly better than Barkley's. And yes, yet again, Weeden's arm is better than both of them. And if all this boils down to a semantic question of the word "significantly"- then you can process it this way- Luck has a better arm than Barkley, and I would, without question, draft him over Barkley. And the only reason why I would even consider choosing Barkley over Weeden is the age issue, and if I did so it would trouble me greatly. If you want a QB with a less than stellar pro QB arm, go for it- draft Barkley.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBpsLGG_qPY&feature=fvst

 

[jim1]

i'm having a hard time understanding how you could be so much in ponders corner last year as a nfl qb given i know i saw plenty of evidence from him last year where the ball didn't always have a whole lot on it...i mean i was more concerned about his arm at that time than anyone else that i recall and watching him with the vikings the arms plenty good enough...and to me i don't see much difference b/t barkleys and ponders on college tape...ck sees drew brees like arm strength i see matt ryan arm...which isn't overly rocket like but its plenty good enough and with the way barkleys timing is so good and all i just don't see the arm remotely being an issue at the next level...not to mention barkley will get stronger in the next few years as his body matures and i'm sure there will be some more rpms on his throws as well...

and as for going against the grain...i got the patent on that my friend...ha ha

I think that Ponder showed plenty of arm during his years at FSU and his elbow injury later in his college career hindered him quite a bit. I also think that it was a fair assumption that the elbow would heal and his arm would be just fine on an NFL level.

 

[ckparrothead]

The throws I've been keying on are deep outs, throws to the flats and deep posts. Go to :15 of this clip. No offense, but your clips proved nothing to me, and I strongly doubt that any Luck footage will change your mind. Luck throws better deep posts. He throws better to the flat- the ball gets there more accurately and quicker than Barkley's throws, which in my mind is obviously important.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XAYqBDjFHo

Go to :20 of this clip, or go to pretty much any clip of Luck throwing shorter out patterns and you'll see a better quality ball than Barkley's. And specifically, I looked for out patterns in the Oregon St and Oregon games and I felt that Luck's throws were substantially better, especially, again, the outs and deep posts. It's just a better arm. And if you disagree, so be it. But I really don't see myself changing my mind- Luck's arm is significantly better than Barkley's. And yes, yet again, Weeden's arm is better than both of them. And if all this boils down to a semantic question of the word "significantly"- then you can process it this way- Luck has a better arm than Barkley, and I would, without question, draft him over Barkley. And the only reason why I would even consider choosing Barkley over Weeden is the age issue, and if I did so it would trouble me greatly. If you want a QB with a less than stellar pro QB arm, go for it- draft Barkley.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBpsLGG_qPY&feature=fvst

I think at 0:15 of the first video you absolutely do have an example of a throw that you don't see Barkley make enough. That ball is 46 yards through the air on a rope on the deep post and it would have been good in tight man coverage. It's a great throw, and a great example of why I say that Andrew Luck's arm is indeed stronger than Matt Barkley's.

Similarly, at 0:15 of the second video, he rolls out to his right and belts out a 54 yard (through the air) ball on a rope off the roll to his right side. Superb throw, shows a good arm.

And then at 1:06 of that second video, another throw. He's falling to his knees but still belts the ball out about 48 yards to it's target. It wasn't a pretty ball, but he was falling to his knees while he threw it. This shows arm strength.

However, what's interesting about all this is, you have two videos that are highlight videos, and they span a bunch of games, weeding out plays from 2010 that were super impresssive, while ignoring the rest of the plays...and yet in all those videos...we've got three examples of throws that I can look at and say that's a really great throw on a ball I don't see Barkley throwing very often, if at all.

That's why I take issue with the term "significantly" better arm strength. It's not semantics. On 95% of the throws that you see Andrew Luck making, he's not throwing a more difficult pass, or getting more heat on the ball, than what Matt Barkley does regularly. It's just not happening. If you disagree you disagree, but I think most people if they see the throws side by side are going to agree with me. If you're only seeing the difference in arm strength on those rare occasions, then I don't think that's a "significantly" better arm.

I think that Brandon Weeden has a "significantly" better arm, and you can see that in any tape you watch him, because you can't get 5 minutes into any tape of him, whether it be an individual game tape or a highlight mix, without picking up 5+ throws you can put up side by side with Luck or Barkley and say these throws showed a better arm.

 

[hoops]

I think that Ponder showed plenty of arm during his years at FSU and his elbow injury later in his college career hindered him quite a bit. I also think that it was a fair assumption that the elbow would heal and his arm would be just fine on an NFL level.

i don't know that it was fair to assume that his elbow/arm would be just fine...at least i was concerned about it til i read the reports about him being given a clean bill of health at the predraft combine medicals...til then i think we all were kinda wondering how it would shake out...

 

[jim1]

I think at 0:15 of the first video you absolutely do have an example of a throw that you don't see Barkley make enough. That ball is 46 yards through the air on a rope on the deep post and it would have been good in tight man coverage. It's a great throw, and a great example of why I say that Andrew Luck's arm is indeed stronger than Matt Barkley's.

Similarly, at 0:15 of the second video, he rolls out to his right and belts out a 54 yard (through the air) ball on a rope off the roll to his right side. Superb throw, shows a good arm.

And then at 1:06 of that second video, another throw. He's falling to his knees but still belts the ball out about 48 yards to it's target. It wasn't a pretty ball, but he was falling to his knees while he threw it. This shows arm strength.

However, what's interesting about all this is, you have two videos that are highlight videos, and they span a bunch of games, weeding out plays from 2010 that were super impresssive, while ignoring the rest of the plays...and yet in all those videos...we've got three examples of throws that I can look at and say that's a really great throw on a ball I don't see Barkley throwing very often, if at all.

That's why I take issue with the term "significantly" better arm strength. It's not semantics. On 95% of the throws that you see Andrew Luck making, he's not throwing a more difficult pass, or getting more heat on the ball, than what Matt Barkley does regularly. It's just not happening. If you disagree you disagree, but I think most people if they see the throws side by side are going to agree with me. If you're only seeing the difference in arm strength on those rare occasions, then I don't think that's a "significantly" better arm.

I think that Brandon Weeden has a "significantly" better arm, and you can see that in any tape you watch him, because you can't get 5 minutes into any tape of him, whether it be an individual game tape or a highlight mix, without picking up 5+ throws you can put up side by side with Luck or Barkley and say these throws showed a better arm.

As they say, it's a game of inches. Cut it any way you want, I rate the arms

1. Weeden
2. Luck

with Barkley some distance behind. And that 5% that you speak of, at the NFL level, is quite important in my book. This, in my mind, is somewhat akin to discussing pitching prospects, and I'm saying that there's quite a bit of significance to one throwing 85 mph and the other throwing 90. To me, that's important. And that's right around 5%. Some pitchers like Greg Maddux thrived despite not bringing the heat, but all else being equal, I'll take the heat.

Weeden has a great arm, no doubt- I've been clear in my admiration of it. But you consistently mention, refer, go back to the word "significantly", as if you want to quantify it. Just watch the film- watch the deep outs, the shorts outs, the posts- and if you feel that Barkley's arm is close to Luck's, that's fine. But a running debate as to the importance and meaning of the word "significant" is something of a waste of time. To me, especially in clutch time at the NFL level where windows are tight, the difference could very well be huge. At least we can agree that Weeden has a stellar, stellar arm. And I can live with that.

 

[jim1]

i don't know that it was fair to assume that his elbow/arm would be just fine...at least i was concerned about it til i read the reports about him being given a clean bill of health at the predraft combine medicals...til then i think we all were kinda wondering how it would shake out...

You know what they say about certainty- death, taxes... It wasn't as if Ponder had Tommy John surgery or a Drew Brees caliber injury (and we can see how that shoulder worked out). So it was just my best guess- sometimes I guess right, sometimes I guess wrong. The bottom line was that, before the injury, Ponder looked solid, top pick in the draft solid by some, and I thought that he would be a good risk at #15. The intellect, the demeanor, the solid size, excellent mobility and imo underrated arm (pre-injury)- I just thought that he was a great prospect, and I was supremely pissed when the Vikings drafted him, because in the absence of a trade, he was going to fall right to #15.

 

[hoops]

You know what they say about certainty- death, taxes... It wasn't as if Ponder had Tommy John surgery or a Drew Brees caliber injury (and we can see how that shoulder worked out). So it was just my best guess- sometimes I guess right, sometimes I guess wrong. The bottom line was that, before the injury, Ponder looked solid, top pick in the draft solid by some, and I thought that he would be a good risk at #15. The intellect, the demeanor, the solid size, excellent mobility and imo underrated arm (pre-injury)- I just thought that he was a great prospect, and I was supremely pissed when the Vikings drafted him, because in the absence of a trade, he was going to fall right to #15.

well according to what we were told after jake locker ponder was the next guy on miamis draft wish list with pick #15...so you almost got your wish

 

[jim1]

well according to what we were told after jake locker ponder was the next guy on miamis draft wish list with pick #15...so you almost got your wish

As good as Pouncy is, getting Ponder would have solved a very difficult, tricky issue imo. I guess that's stating the obvious, but to me Ponder was the answer.

 

[ckparrothead]

As they say, it's a game of inches. Cut it any way you want, I rate the arms

1. Weeden
2. Luck

with Barkley some distance behind. And that 5% that you speak of, at the NFL level, is quite important in my book.

I disagree. I think you're overstating the importance of arm strength, which Jay Gruden recently stated "is so overrated it's stupid". And I think this discussion would be the very definition of what he's talking about.

If the arm strength only shows up on 5% of throws, and we're assuming a normalized completion percentage, we're talking about 15 plays worth maybe 200 yards. That amount of production can easily be canceled out by any number of skills that Matt Barkley could have over Andrew Luck, such as better ball location or better control/touch, etc. For instance, look at the two fade throws I showed against UCLA. One was a touchdown. One was nearly an interception. The better control that Barkley displayed on that ball alone would have canceled out about half the production that Luck's marginally better arm strength would give him over Matt Barkley.

 

[ckparrothead]

We had sources inform us in a very detailed way what exactly was wrong with Ponder's elbow, what happened during the season, what surgeries he needed, etc. Once we had that information it became very easy to have confidence in Ponder as a 1st rounder. As part of our stuff on Ponder I kept passing around the link to that YouTube video of Ponder's Elway impersonation against South Florida, rolling left at a dead run and whipping out a 50+ yard rope into the end zone that was caught but called back on a stupid penalty. Once you see that throw, you know Ponder has all the arm strength he could ever need.

 

[jim1]

I disagree. I think you're overstating the importance of arm strength, which Jay Gruden recently stated "is so overrated it's stupid". And I think this discussion would be the very definition of what he's talking about.

If the arm strength only shows up on 5% of throws, and we're assuming a normalized completion percentage, we're talking about 15 plays worth maybe 200 yards. That amount of production can easily be canceled out by any number of skills that Matt Barkley could have over Andrew Luck, such as better ball location or better control/touch, etc. For instance, look at the two fade throws I showed against UCLA. One was a touchdown. One was nearly an interception. The better control that Barkley displayed on that ball alone would have canceled out about half the production that Luck's marginally better arm strength would give him over Matt Barkley.

I don't know about that. I liked a guy a few years ago, Graham Harrell. Thought he had a lot of good qualities, I don't even think that he was drafted. Eric Zeir couldn't cut it, neither could the Wisconsin QB from last year. Common factor- lack of arm strength. Of course there are any number of things that an NFL QB has to do well- both mental and physical- but I think that near the top of that list are:

1. Get the ball there accurately
2. Get the ball there quickly

That's what worries me about Barkley, that extra fraction of a second for a CB or S to get into his break and make a play on the ball. Marino- one of the best releases ever, but he also got the ball there pronto, with heat. Deadly combination. Rodgers whips that ball and Brady, with that accuracy and the way that he just drives that ball home, is ridiculous. I absolutely want to see a strong arm, especially if we're talking about a top 5 pick. That is my complaint, in a nutshell- Barkley's passes hang around a bit too long, and that could spell future trouble. And if I'm wrong, so be it, won't be the first time. Dude has a lot of other great qualities- the arm strength issue isn't a death knell, it's just a concern on my part, for better or worse.