Miami likely to get a compensatory pick in 2013

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by Nublar7, Sep 6, 2012.

  1. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    Looking towards the 2013 draft, the Dolphins could be in line for a compensatory pick. A compensatory pick is an extra draft pick that the NFL awards to teams that lost more qualifying unrestricted free agents than they gained(there are only 32 total picks and one single team can get a maximum of 4). They have to be a TRUE unrestricted free agent, they can't be a player that was released or traded to the team. Or a player that missed the prior season for whatever reason. They had to have had their contract expire when the new league year began in March. The formula for the compensatory picks is not public knowledge, but people have sort of guessed how it works over the course of the past decade. It is believed that the player has to sign before August, so in this case Ikaika Alama-Francis of the 49ers likely doesn't count as a "loss" for the Dolphins. The formula takes into account the size of the contract, the amount of playing time and any post season player awards. Contract and playing time appear to be the biggest part of it. So lets take a look at who the Dolphins signed and lost and who likely is the qualifying players.


    Projected Dolphins Signed qualifiers:

    Legadu Naanee - (1 year, $700,000)
    Artis Hicks - (1 year, $2,000,000)
    Richard Marshall - (3 years, $16,000,000)

    Projected Dolphins Lost qualifiers:

    Chad Henne - (2 years, $6,750,000)
    Will Allen (1 year, $1,000,000)
    Kendall Langford - (4 years, $24,000,000)
    Marvin Mitchell - (1 year, $725,000)

    Now as you can see, Miami likely will have more qualifying losses than gains. Players without similar deals and production usually cancel each other out. So, since Hicks and Allen have similar deals and were placed on IR before the season started, safe to say the cancel each other out. I don't expect Naanee to have a huge impact at WR, and Mitchell is a backup in Minnesota, they probably will cancel each other out. Now, if Marshall and Langford both start the entire season as expected, you can probably cancel those two out also. Which, in the end leaves Chad Henne and his 2 year, $6,750,000 contract. Assuming he is the backup all year and that his AVERAGE salary is $3,375,000 per season, my early projection is either an additional 6th or 7th round pick. All depends on how things play out, but it does look like Miami will be getting a compensatory pick in 2013.
     
  2. SMadison29

    SMadison29 What Sherman aspires to be

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    Comparing Henne's salary to the players teams were awarded compensation for last year it looks like Henne will net us an additional 6th round pick.
     
  3. DefensiveEnd76

    DefensiveEnd76 Football Guru

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    So in other words, we finally get something out of Henne.
     
  4. ddfin13

    ddfin13 Member

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    we need to get at least something for all the crap FA's we got
     
  5. Zounds

    Zounds A True Fan Donator

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    Henne may end up starting some games this year too....
     
  6. Exuro

    Exuro Well-Known Member

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    there is also a floor the comp pick formula, which is around 875k or the vet minimum. I don't think Mitchel or Naanee, or Allen qualify. I agree that Marshall will cancel out Langford. There is the possibility that Hicks may cancel out Henne, or even downgrade the comp pick. I'm thinking a 7th round comp pick for 2013.
     
  7. BC26

    BC26 Active Member

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    We need that pick for a new kicker.
     
  8. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    I would have to say Miami's chances at a compensatory pick has improved over the course of this season. Both Naanee and Hicks have been cut by the Dolphins, Langford has started every game so far for the Rams and now Henne is the starting QB in Jacksonville. Looks promising that Miami will get a compensatory pick, might even be in the 5th round range now.
     
  9. Exuro

    Exuro Well-Known Member

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    I wonder how Marshall's lack of playtime and going on IR will affect the comp pick Miami receives.
     
  10. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    It certainly will help the Dolphins chances.
     
  11. Roman529

    Roman529 Moon Runner / The 3 AM Crew

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    Figuring out how they award compensatory picks is tougher than defining what is "making a football move" after a wide receiver catches the ball. :chuckle:
     
  12. gfran

    gfran Rookie

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    sure but I tend to subscribe to Nublar assessment of a 5th or 6th round pick for Henne, just MHO ...
     
  13. 2413fanphins

    2413fanphins A True Fan

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    an additional 5th round pick would be very much welcome. multiple picks in three rounds... we could find some solid depth with those fifth rounders... but something is better than nothing, I'd be happy with whatever we get.
     
  14. MrEd

    MrEd A True Fan

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    Does Gaffney or the waiver wire pick ups ie Patterson, Miller, Armstrong count towards affecting the calculations. Marshall's playing time vs Langford hopefully plays part in equation and Henne's playing time.
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Not so sure about that. The compensatory process has been relayed to me as being extremely formulaic, hence there are some people that are pretty sure they've got it nailed down and they're able to predict within a small margin what picks are going to be handed out each year. Marshall's lack of playing time and spending time on IR strikes me as a non-formulaic consideration that would be hard to plug into a formulaic construct.
     
  16. Pat-London

    Pat-London A True Fan

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    Now there's a word you don't hear that much.... FORMULAIC...

    and sounds to me that you enjoyed using it :)

    Ta for the info.
     
  17. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP

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    Whoever came up with the formula decided that no matter what, we'd get an extra 6th round pick once every 3 years while NE gets 4 picks(all in the 3rd round)every year.

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  18. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    Playing time is part of the formula, and the fact that Marshall didn't play much will help Miami's chances. Just like Henne starting at the end of the season in Jacksonville will also help.
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Link?
     
  20. SMadison29

    SMadison29 What Sherman aspires to be

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    Any compensation pick formula questions should go to a guy that uses the screen name AdamJT13 on various NFL/Draft message boards. He's the only person I've ever encountered that has predicted the picks with a high success rate.
     
  21. Geforce

    Geforce FinHeaven VIP

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  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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  23. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    Take your pick:

    http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0900...tributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-15-clubs

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft

    http://www.cbssports.com/general/bl...-compensatory-picks-for-use-in-the-2012-draft

    http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2012/03/nfl_awards_giants_a_fourth-rou.html

    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/...eland-Browns-Green-Bay-Packers-awarded-032612

    http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/03/26/nfl-awards-compensatory-picks-raiders-nab-third-ro

    This is from the guy most known around the internet who is most accurate in predicting compensatory picks:

    http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2010/03/projecting-2010-compensatory-nfl-draft.html

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/37455/cowboys-giants-each-pick-up-a-pick

    http://content.usatoday.com/communi...1/03/nfl-draft-compensatory-picks-announced/1

     
  24. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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  25. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Wow, so we didn't get squat. Why does that not surprise me?

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
     
  26. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Ok, I just looked at the date on that article...I am a dumb ***!

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
     
  27. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    We will get something this. Maybe two picks, but more likely just one.
     
  28. SCall13

    SCall13 Finheaven QB

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    We should get a 6th and probably a 7th
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    LOL. Way to come off looking like a 6 year old girl tattling to mommy.

    For the record, I don't believe I did anything wrong and here is exactly what I posted, all of the information which I verified myself independently and even edited to dis-include a player that Nublar7 had mistakenly included.

    I'm an open book. If anyone has a problem with this please feel free to discuss it with me.

    EDIT: The reason I noted that this was "IMO" instead of the opinion of Nublar7 was specifically because Nublar7 thought Legedu Naanee would be included in the formula whereas I have come to believe that he would not be because his contract is not over the million dollar threshold. Just wanted to explain that.
     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    1. We're talking about a forum post, not a newspaper or blog article. And not even a forum THREAD. Just a post within a thread saying what I think. No, it's not in any way whatsoever out of bounds to copy and paste a list over in a forum post, especially when you verify the information yourself and edit it in order to impress your opinion onto it.

    2. No, that was not my verification process. I verified that the contract values were close enough to correct, and I double-checked each name on the list to see if it met the criteria for inclusion in the compensatory pick formulas. Hence, I edited out Legedu Naanee who does not meet the criteria.

    3. Who said I'm a compensatory pick "guru"? Certainly not me. Yes, I admitted right here in this thread that I don't know the compensatory pick process very well. Hence in the three weeks or so between this thread and the other one, at SOME point I actually LEARNED more about the compensatory process. And that's how I knew Legedu's contract probably wouldn't qualify for the process. Whaaaa? You mean I don't come in here, post on a thread, and then go into hibernation until the next thread? LMFAO.

    4. Are you Chris Cordero? Because this is actually pretty funny.
     
  31. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    Honestly I am not going to get worked up over CK copying and pasting my post as his own on another Dolphins message board. I don't know what site this happened on nor do I really have the desire to try and search it out. This is the largest Dolphins fan site on the internet so I know my thread reached more users than any "rival" website. If CK wants to use my posts on other message boards, that is up to him, I can't stop him. I guess it is flattering? Anyways, I am not going to really make a big deal about it or investigate the allegation further than what was revealed in this thread.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    There's no need to go far to investigate. I posted exactly what I posted over there right here inside this thread. Look at it as you wish. I copied a list of 6 players and edited it using information that I gathered on my own, and then posted it as like the 35th post down in a thread that someone else created. I did nothing wrong whatsoever.

    EDIT: My apologies, your list included 7 players. I pared it down to the 5 players that actually matter.
     
  33. fish_fan

    fish_fan Rookie

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    Without a horse in this race, I'd like to point out that all that was copied was the table of data. No analysis or thoughts of Nublars was posted.

    I was actually hoping for something a lot juicier when I went looking for it :)
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Well, I thank you for at least being objective. The entire issue reeks of personal vendetta anyway. Doesn't matter, no skin off my nose.
     
  35. fish_fan

    fish_fan Rookie

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    Non issue to me. Also, good job on Nublar getting the data out there too!
     
  36. tylerdolphin

    tylerdolphin More Smug than Birthday Dog Moderator Finheaven VIP

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  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    What's ironic is that I'm generally sensitive to this issue since it has happened to me so often.

    There is a poster here, I honestly forget which one, he was an "official" this or that, newshound maybe or something like that (not Robi). Might've even been a mod. I believe twice he took the entire body of text I wrote in an original post on a different message board (we're talking 1,000+ words of original prose) and posted it in here, changing around the wording to make it first person and make it seem like he wrote it. This guy usually just posts threads with links to news articles so when I launched complaints that's generally how it was excused...but the full text was copied and words were specifically changed to make it first person.

    Aside from that, one of our Draft Winds pieces was ripped off by Armando Salguero and we actually had to get the Sun Sentinel to flex some legal muscle as Salguero's editor was threatening to sue us for these untrue accusations of plagiarism (that were actually true).

    I also got ripped off by ThePhinsider.com once. That wasn't very nice.

    Anyway, my apologies if it came off like I was ripping anyone off. I certainly was not.
     
  38. 2413fanphins

    2413fanphins A True Fan

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    wow... this was almost nostalgic for me in a way... took me back to the heated ryan mallet debates I used to read on here that year he was drafted.

    loved the pic message of it escalating quickly or however it was worded... I even snorted when I was laughing from when I read that.. hahaha....

    thanks for the laugh guys!! PEACE
     
  39. Dolfan23

    Dolfan23 A True Fan

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  40. finfan54

    finfan54 A True Fan Donator

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    that would be teets!
     
  41. ITS!MATEO

    ITS!MATEO A True Fan

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    A 4th?? Man that would be awesome!
     
  42. TheBow305

    TheBow305 Starter

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    Man, that would be incredible!!
     
  43. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    I am totally down with a 4th, especially in this draft. This could equal someone fairly good.
     
  44. ticophin

    ticophin Starter Donator

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    If we lose Jake, Smith, and Hartline, we could be up for a few in 2014, one should be a 3rd at the very least!!
     
  45. XxfeensterxX

    XxfeensterxX FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I'm thinking 5th, but a 4th would be awesome.

    O yeah, nobody likes a snitch!
     
  46. SMadison29

    SMadison29 What Sherman aspires to be

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    It seems like he made an error in his projection of the Langford pick. According to the rule on the basis of what round the pick falls under "The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed."

    Third Rounders
    M.Williams - 6yr $96M; $16M annual value
    B.Carr - 5yr $50.1M; $10.2M
    C.Finnegan - 5yr $50M; $10M

    Fourth Rounders
    E.Wright - 5yr $37.5M; $7.5M
    B.Grubbs - 5yr $36M; $7.2M
    M.Flynn - 3yr $19.5M; $6.5M
    K.Langford - 6yr $24M; $4M is really 4yr $24M; $6M (corrected contract #s)
    J.Morgan - 2yr $11.5M; $5.75M
    C.Lofton - 5yr $27.5M; $5.5M

    Fifth Rounders
    J.Johnson - 4yr $19M; $4.75M
    J.Jones - 1yr $4.5M; $4.5M

    Sixth Rounders (Top few only)
    J.Allen - 2yr $8.2M; $4.1M
    A.Ross - 3yr $9.75M; $3.25M
    S.Satele - 3yr $10.8M; $3.6M
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 28, 2013
  47. Exuro

    Exuro Well-Known Member

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    Langford signed a 4 year deal, which puts him in the 4th round range.
     
  48. SMadison29

    SMadison29 What Sherman aspires to be

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    You seem to be correct. The first site I checked said it was a 6 year deal also.
     
  49. 2413fanphins

    2413fanphins A True Fan

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    multiple picks in three of the first four rounds will be just filthy!!!! hope this is true.
     
  50. X-FACTOR

    X-FACTOR Scout Team

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    4th would be excellent.....not angry with a 5th either.

    O yeah, nobody likes a snitch! But they love when you snitch about the good things they do!
     

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