MLB HOF 2007: Gwynn & Ripken

[UCFinfan86]

WOW that has to be one of the weakest first ballot classes ever. None of those guys are even remotely close to being HOF material IMO.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think 2008 is the Goose, Rice, Blyleven and Morris show finally.

Dawson & Smith remain on the outside looking in! Big Mac climbs higher but still not sure if voters issue 75% agreement.

I'm not sure Morris deserves to be in the Hall. I don't have his numbers in front of me but I'll check them out later when I have more time but aside from Game 7 of the 91 WS nothing that he's done really stands out that I can think of.

 

[BigDogsHunt]

I'm not sure Morris deserves to be in the Hall. I don't have his numbers in front of me but I'll check them out later when I have more time but aside from Game 7 of the 91 WS nothing that he's done really stands out that I can think of.

I know, a lot of folks feel this way. Yet, he was the dominant pitcher of his generation and lead the decade in wins. He obviously stacks up well from the post season side too.

http://www.thebaseballpage.com/players/morrija02.php

Jack Morris won far more games (233) than any other pitcher in baseball over a 14-year span (1979-1992). Critics have attacked Morris' legacy due to his high ERA's, claiming he won due to great run support. Those same critics ignore the fact that Morris pitched several years in a tremendous hitters' ballpark (Tiger Stadium). Morris was the winningest pitcher of the 1980s.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/morrija02.shtml

Career Statistics
Record 254-186
ERA 3.90
Strikeouts 2478

http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/ballplayers/M/Morris_Jack.stm

I think he gets overlooked but clearly he was the best of the best during his run. (Similar to Rice). Does that make him HoF material? Its a tough argument.

1991 - World Series Most Valuable Player
All Star: 1981, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1991
AL Wins Leader: 1981, 1992
AL Strikeouts Leader: 1983
AL Shutouts Leader: 1986
Hold the major league record for consecutive opening day starts, with 14 (1979-1993)

Does the best of the best during one's run make you HoF, or are you just not good enough if the era didnt produce what some might say "overall" HoF worthy members???

Though the winningest pitcher of the 1980s, Morris' skills were debated while he played and during his bid for the Hall of Fame. While Morris was a consistent workhorse, notching double-digit wins in 14 of his 16 full seasons in the majors, his ERA hinted at the benefit of run support. He finished in the top ten in Cy Young Award voting seven times, but never won the coveted trophy; his heralded 1984 and 1991 World Series performances were somewhat tempered by his subpar postseason play in 1987 and 1992. However, Morris was a tenacious performer on the mound, relegated to the disabled list just twice in his 18-year career, and helped anchor three different teams' victories in the World Series.

 

[phunwin]

The biggest name is David Justice. So saying the pool class is extremely thin is an understatement. Therefore guys like Goose and Rice will probably get in.

The biggest name is Justice, but the best player is Raines. Raines absolutely should be in the HOF and probably won't be. He's basically the Bert Blyleven of hitters: excellent statistics, but toiled in obscurity for too long and fell just short of magical career marks that would have likely guaranteed entry. Injuries in his prime years were all that kept Raines from 3000 hits and 1000 SBs.

As for who will get in, Gossage is pretty much a lock unless he kills someone between now and January 2008.

I'm not sure about Rice, though. Here's his vote percentage the last 5 years: 52.2 54.5 59.5 64.8 63.5. (From http://baseballcrank.com/)

To me, the fact that his support increased like that and then finally levelled off this year tells me that he's hit critical mass. Remember, next year is his 15th and final year on the ballot, so he's got a lot of ground to make up in a short time (Rice got 346 votes, and needed 409 this year, so that means 63 voters need to change their minds in one year). Red Sox Nation has been stumping without shame for Rice forever, so the voters have heard the arguments ad infinitum. I read somewhere that the Red Sox FO is planning a major PR campaign on Rice's behalf. Good for them and good for Rice, but honestly, it bothers me that anyone would, after 15 years, finally say "okay, I'll vote for him". It either means you weren't paying attention enough before, or you're a weak-minded, easily-influenced fool. Still, it's human nature, and I can no more complain about that than I can ask a dog not to scratch.

The one thing in Rice's favor (and in favor of those who are close but not in) is that almost everyone's support dipped this year, due in part to the bitterness of the steroid issue, and also in part to the fact that there were two absolute locks on the ballot. Remember, you can vote for up to 10 guys, which means that after Gwynn and Ripken were checked off, that left 8 potential spots. Next year, there are no locks on the ballot, which might free up some votes for Rice and Andre Dawson.

I don't think Blyleven and Morris will make it. Their support has also levelled off, and neither is close enough to expect to get over the top. Blyleven has actually been the beneficiary of a PR campaign of sorts by sabermetric-minded folks like Rob Neyer, Bill James and etc. But I think that's probably hit its peak, especially with so many old-school voters still around.

If I were to forecast the chances of induction for the primary candidates next year, I'd guess their chances of induction are as follows:

Gossage - 95%
Rice - 50%
Dawson - 35%
Blyleven - 10%
Morris - 5%
Raines - 5% (much higher, eventually, but there's no way he gets in on the first try)

 

[BigDogsHunt]

I'm not sure about Rice, though. Here's his vote percentage the last 5 years: 52.2 54.5 59.5 64.8 63.5. (From http://baseballcrank.com/)

To me, the fact that his support increased like that and then finally levelled off this year tells me that he's hit critical mass. Remember, next year is his 15th and final year on the ballot, so he's got a lot of ground to make up in a short time (Rice got 346 votes, and needed 409 this year, so that means 63 voters need to change their minds in one year).

Small point....this was Rice's 13th try...next year is #14. (interesting enough his uniform number.)

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/...t_id=1775510&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Rice, in his 13th year on the ballot, received 346 votes for a percentage of 63.5. Inductees need to be selected on 75 percent of voters of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.

It would be fitting if Rice did get elected on his 14th try, since he wore No. 14 during the entirety of his career (1974-89) with the Red Sox. There would also be some irony if he went in with Gossage, considering their epic power struggles in the late innings during the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry.

Should Rice fail to gain entry next year, 2009 would be his last chance to make it the old-fashioned way. Candidates are allowed to be on the BBWAA ballot for a maximum of 15 years. However, Rice would still have a chance to be selected via the Veteran's Committee should he go 0-for-15 in the BBWAA vote.

 

[phunwin]

Small point....this was Rice's 13th try...next year is #14. (interesting enough his uniform number.)

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/...t_id=1775510&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Actually, it's a large point. I didn't think Rice could make up that many votes in one year, but in two years, his chances are much, much better. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[phunwin]

I know, a lot of folks feel this way. Yet, he was the dominant pitcher of his generation and lead the decade in wins. He obviously stacks up well from the post season side too.

http://www.thebaseballpage.com/players/morrija02.php



http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/morrija02.shtml

Career Statistics
Record 254-186
ERA 3.90
Strikeouts 2478

http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/ballplayers/M/Morris_Jack.stm

I think he gets overlooked but clearly he was the best of the best during his run. (Similar to Rice). Does that make him HoF material? Its a tough argument.


Does the best of the best during one's run make you HoF, or are you just not good enough if the era didnt produce what some might say "overall" HoF worthy members???

I go back and forth on Morris. His track record as a Big Game Pitcher is absolutely undeniable, and with the way baseball has changed, the old 300 win benchmark should probably be adjusted to 250 (Morris has 254). But that 3.90 ERA won't go away. More to the point, his ERA+ for his career was just 105. You can talk about park factors all you like, but ERA+ adjusts for that and tells us that his ERA was just 5% better than an average MLB pitcher. That's a big problem in my eyes. Add in the fact that his win totals are inflated by the fact that he played on really good teams for the vast majority of his career and suddenly, that 254-186 record looks less impressive.

More irritating is the complete lack of interest his old teammates have gotten. Alan Trammell is absolutely a Hall of Famer, but he's probably never going to make it. Lou Whitaker had a decent case for induction, and got knocked off the ballot immediately. The larger problem is that a lot of stars from the 1980's seem to be getting shafted by the committee; you can add Andre Dawson and Dale Murphy to the list and probably Tim Raines, as well.

 

[BigDogsHunt]

I go back and forth on Morris. His track record as a Big Game Pitcher is absolutely undeniable, and with the way baseball has changed, the old 300 win benchmark should probably be adjusted to 250 (Morris has 254). But that 3.90 ERA won't go away. More to the point, his ERA+ for his career was just 105. You can talk about park factors all you like, but ERA+ adjusts for that and tells us that his ERA was just 5% better than an average MLB pitcher. That's a big problem in my eyes. Add in the fact that his win totals are inflated by the fact that he played on really good teams for the vast majority of his career and suddenly, that 254-186 record looks less impressive.

More irritating is the complete lack of interest his old teammates have gotten. Alan Trammell is absolutely a Hall of Famer, but he's probably never going to make it. Lou Whitaker had a decent case for induction, and got knocked off the ballot immediately. The larger problem is that a lot of stars from the 1980's seem to be getting shafted by the committee; you can add Andre Dawson and Dale Murphy to the list and probably Tim Raines, as well.

:yeahthat: (the best of your generation argument doesnt hold weight it seems when "that generation" is looked down upon for some reason by the voters)

 

[FinsNYanksFan13]

I think 2008 is the Goose, Rice, Blyleven and Morris show finally.

Dawson & Smith remain on the outside looking in! Big Mac climbs higher but still not sure if voters issue 75% agreement.

Tim Raines should make it in 08 IMO!

808 Stolen Bases
Over 2600 hits
.294 Career Batting Average
.385 OBP
Never struck out 100 times in any season
170 homers, 980 RBI's
7 All Star Games including and AS MVP
Led MLB in stolen bases 4 times including 7 othe top 10 finishes
Top 10 in triples 9 times
Played on 2 Championship Teams
Top 10 in runs scored in 8 seasons


http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/raineti01.shtml



I think Rock should get in. Many will disagree because he's a poor man's Ricky Henderson but I think he is deserving of getting in next year along with Goose and Rice!

 

[MikeO]

I'm not sure Morris deserves to be in the Hall. I don't have his numbers in front of me but I'll check them out later when I have more time but aside from Game 7 of the 91 WS nothing that he's done really stands out that I can think of.

Morris should be in. His numbers and career is very good, throw in his big games and he's in.

Jim Rice should be in also as with Gossage

 

[MikeO]

damn, i thought for sure Cal would get 100%

You take away the streak,and Cal Ripken is a borderline hall of fame player. He wasn't that good on the field.

He played 21 years and in 21 years only about 7 of them are what you would call HALL OF FAME years. He has 3,000 hits yes, but he's a lifetime .276 hitter (or so). That is a clear sign that he wasn't a great player, he just had a ton of at bats and any average player would get 3,000 hits in that many at bats!!

All things considered (streak, 3,000 hits...etc) he belongs in the hall of fame. With that said though, Cal wasn't going to get 100% of the vote and he is a very very overrated player!!

 

[MikeO]

Adding to the list:

Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Tom Glavine
John Smoltz
Ken Griffey Jr.
Trevor Hoffman

I don't see Hoffman going to the hall of fame. I know his numbers are what they are but I just don't see it and I think over the next few years "numbers" are going to get tossed aside when deciding on who is a hall of fame player or not.

 

[BigDogsHunt]

You take away the streak,and Cal Ripken is a borderline hall of fame player. He wasn't that good on the field.

He played 21 years and in 21 years only about 7 of them are what you would call HALL OF FAME years. He has 3,000 hits yes, but he's a lifetime .276 hitter (or so). That is a clear sign that he wasn't a great player, he just had a ton of at bats and any average player would get 3,000 hits in that many at bats!!

All things considered (streak, 3,000 hits...etc) he belongs in the hall of fame. With that said though, Cal wasn't going to get 100% of the vote and he is a very very overrated player!!

:confused: MikeO. Fine streak-aside. Ripken revolutionized the SS position. He was the first of many that followed to be that big, tall, strong SS. He was very, very, very good in the field.

He is a first ballot HoF!

 

[MikeO]

:confused: MikeO. Fine streak-aside. Ripken revolutionized the SS position. He was the first of many that followed to be that big, tall, strong SS. He was very, very, very good in the field.

He is a first ballot HoF!

I never said he wasn't a first ballot HOF player :shakeno: :shakeno: I just said he was overrated.

And he didn't revolutionize anything. In 21 years he didn't even get 500 home runs!!!!! 12,000 at bats for a career!!!!!!! And he played the last 10 years (or so) in a sandbox ballpark!!!!

 

[BigDogsHunt]

I never said he wasn't a first ballot HOF player :shakeno: :shakeno: I just said he was overrated.

And he didn't revolutionize anything. In 21 years he didn't even get 500 home runs!!!!! 12,000 at bats for a career!!!!!!! And he played the last 10 years (or so) in a sandbox ballpark!!!!

:shakeno: :shakeno: :shakeno: my point is that you cant be a borderline HOFer and be a 1st Ballot HOFer w/highest % for position player also:shakeno: :shakeno: :shakeno:

He revolutionized the SS position! First big man to be a SS!