Whoops. Roger Goodell will have to get on the rules committee. More handcuffs on the defense. All the tinkerbell passing teams were eliminated.
This is the most refreshing Super Bowl matchup in years. Hopefully we'll get a hard knocking 17-13 type of game, some real football.
I say 17-13 to give me just enough room. Line is -3.5 to -4 right now. My system has San Francisco minus the points but I'll be rooting for the Ravens and Ed Reed. If the 49ers win I hope it's like today, just barely enough to cover my -3.5.
The sportsbooks were in agony when they posted that 28-24 final into the computer. I've already heard horror stories. I can't tell you what it's like when a major game falls smack on the number. You don't win any of the big bets. The sharp guys who had San Francisco gave -3.5 and the sharp guys who had Atlanta had +4.5 or even +5. Most of the public bets pushed at -4 or +4 and only a few nitwits lost by giving -4.5 on the 49ers late.
My Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential system is 7-2 in the playoffs versus the spread. I had 49ers -3.5 and no play on Baltimore/New England. I've detailed the plug and play criteria several times but here it is again: You take any team with at least a half yard edge over its opponent during the regular season. Only regular season stats matter. You ignore anything that happens in the playoffs, including injuries. San Francisco had by far the highest number among these four teams, at +1.9. Atlanta was +.5, New England +.3 and Baltimore +.2. I mentioned at the outset of the playoffs that New England's net passing numbers were barely above break even. Still, I was surprised they lost to an older team like Baltimore.
Atlanta has been a fraud both times they won 13 games. Two years ago their YPPA Differential was -.2, if you can believe that, despite being the top seed. Green Bay as 6th seed had the top YPPA net of any playoff team that year.
I must say, it took special talent to build a 20-0 lead in one home playoff game yet barely survive, then follow that up by blowing a 17-0 home playoff lead, including zero points in the second half. Matty October had happy feet from the first pass of the second half and it never stopped. I couldn't stop laughing when they chose an idiotic roll out on the 3rd and 4 play near the goal line. As I've posted many times recently, that type of play is moronic in the NFL. Work in a stats office and you'll discover that in a hurry. Too often you simply cut off half the field on yourself. The 4th down play was a congested delight and Matty October panicked, throwing it the only place he looked.
